Taiwan ★

introduction of Taiwan
★★the sites rank world No.1 : 2020~25, 2017~19, 2016, 2015, 2014, 2013, 2010~12 ★★ Top since 1998 ★

fights for rights

home OP Taiwan TW tour restaurants night markets democracy love personality hospitals president pres. women speech univ. internet-army military massage prostitution privacy fraud judiciary police prosecutors judicial-persecution corruption foreign-labor human rights intl human rights death penalty diplomacy transportation happiness housing buffet food image soft power creativity culture wealth drugs persecutions trans-justice FB US-cartoons US-designs Japan-comics Chn-creativity EXPO-Shanghai Chn-cartoons-WWII political-cartoons cartoon-creativity mental-control music movies CovID-19 ♣ Is 'cannibalism' legal in a 'cannibal'-led country ?
　

☉○

◆	Taiwan

○

Trump defends Taiwan ???
Brookings, 2025-2-12	Trump said : if China invades Taiwan, “there isn't a f—ing thing we can do about it.”
Fox News, 2025-2-7	Trump's comments on the campaign trail suggest that he would not be willing to put boots on the ground to face another global superpower in defense of the island democracy.
Politico (EU), 2025-1-30	Trump said the island should pay the U.S. for protection from China and suggested that trying to defend the island would be futile.
Newsweek (2025-1-3)	Trump, who positioned himself as being tough on China, has suggested he would not defend Taiwan from China
Telegraph (2025-1-13)	Trump has pledged not to allow the US to become involved in foreign wars
National Interest (2025-1-13)	Why Trump Won't Defend Taiwan - Waging World War III for Taiwan—or any small nation, for that matter—would not be in keeping with the predilections and preferences of the incoming US president. The United States is unlikely to do much of anything to stop the Chinese when they do go forward with their nefarious plans. That’s because the United States and its allies simply lack the political will and the defense industrial base to support the kind of herculean effort that will be needed to defeat a Chinese blockade and/or invasion of the embattled island democracy of Taiwan.
New York Times (2024-11-7)	Trump could decide to do the true “America First” thing and withdraw completely, and basically say, ... defending Taiwan is not in our interest.”
Independent (2024-7-21)	a defence analyst: “Trump has never been a fan of defending Taiwan, and his latest comments simply reconfirm that his position is quite dug in..." expert: it appears a second Trump presidency could see Taiwan “treated as a bargaining chip” for negotiations with China.
Washington Post (2024-11-7)	Trump's statements this year that raise doubt about his willingness to come to the island democracy's defense
Newsweek (2024-11-7)	It's true that Trump has made a number of statements, including recently, suggesting that Taiwan could not be defended or even should not be defended.
TIME (2024-11-8)	RSIS's scholar tells TIME that Trump may choose to avoid U.S. involvement in potential conflict by striking a deal with Beijing.
War On The Rocks (2025-1-17)	Government efforts to catalyze national will are essential before conflict. but U.S. officials have not explained why Taiwan is worth a war. most Americans are opposed U.S. troops defending Taiwan despite believing China critically threatens U.S. “vital interests.” Americans do not understand the stakes.
Sydney Morning Herald (2024-1-22)	By 2018, Trump's tone had changed. “What do we get from protecting Taiwan, say?” Trump asked aides. ( Bob Woodward's book Fear: Trump in the White House.)
Politico (2021-3-15)	Trump: "If they invade, there isn't a f---ing thing we can do about it."
Washington Examiner (2023-9-6)	This language suggests Trump's belief that a U.S. military intervention over Taiwan would be tantamount to nuclear war. It strongly implies that he would be unwilling to risk using U.S. military force over Taiwan.
New York Times (2024-11-10)	Trump told Washington Post: “Don't forget, it's 9,000 miles away” from the United States
BBC ( 2024-10-19)	“I would say: if you go into Taiwan, I'm sorry to do this, I’m going to tax you at 150% to 200%,” he said.
The War Zone (2024-11-15)	Senior Lecturer at the University of Zurich and Director of the Taiwan Studies Project : Rather than considering Taiwan as a democracy worth protecting in its own right, Taiwan is now a card to be played in Trump’s transactional strategies
CNN (2024-12-15)	Asked by the Wall Street Journal if he would use military force against a blockade on Taiwan by China, Trump said it would not come to that
Politico (2025-1-30): Trump said the island should pay the U.S. for protection from China and suggested that trying to defend the island would be futile. But, If any means other than U.S. military intervention over Taiwan is working, US troops need not to be stationed in Japan, or S. Korea.

How much of the world backs Beijing's claim to Taiwan?
♣ Economist, 2025-2-9	By The Economist's count, 70 countries have now officially endorsed that China is entitled to pursue “all” efforts to achieve unification, without specifying that those efforts should be peaceful. China's latest diplomatic push appears to be designed to secure global support for its broadening campaign of coercion against Taiwan. That campaign includes the threat of imposing a quarantine or inspection regime on Taiwan economist.com/international/2025/02/09/chinas-stunning-new-campaign-to-turn-the-world-against-taiwan
♣ Lowy Institute , 2025-1-29	nearly three-quarters of countries (74% or 142 in total) now support Beijing's position that Taiwan is part of China.。A growing number of countries support PRC efforts to “achieve national reunification” without any caveat that Beijing's objectives should be pursued peacefully. The widespread adoption of Beijing's stance might constrain US-led deterrence efforts and could provide the PRC with extra licence to escalate military aggression lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/how-much-world-really-backs-beijing-s-claim-taiwan
♣ National Review . 2024-10-7	Taiwan is losing the battle for diplomatic recognition overseas. The island nation cannot compete with China's “checkbook diplomacy,” preferring instead to await the day when the foreign beneficiaries of Beijing’s largess recognize the substandard services they're purchasing and see for themselves the point of diminishing returns. Washington treated Taiwan as a chip to be traded away.
♣ National Public Radio, 2024-8-19	Taiwan is not officially considered a sovereign nation by most other countries and does not have the ability to conduct normal diplomacy.

Taiwan's military - in the stage of infancy
◆ Washington Times , 2024-12-27	visible signs of societal and governmental preparedness are lacking. Unlike Israel, where civil and military readiness is a national ethos, Taiwan appears complacent, Taiwan must cultivate a culture of national defense akin to Israel's
National Interest , 2024-7-30	On top of that, Taiwan does not have a strong draft... whether Taiwan is serious about resisting a Chinese invasion or even if it takes such threats seriously. Taiwan's politicians likely realize better than Washington that Taiwanese voters may not be as inclined to make the kind of heavy sacrifices that are necessary to defend their freedom as the Ukrainians, Israelis, Finns, or Swiss.
◆ Economist (UK), 2024-9-5	polls suggest Taiwanese will to resist rests on whether Taiwanese think America will defend them. Taiwan can do much to strengthen its defences but, alas, it can do little to influence American politics
♦ Financial Times (UK), 2024-7-21	“People don't realise the stage of infancy the military is in".
◆ National Interest (2023-7-16)	Taiwanese President announced a plan to extend the compulsory conscription program but received backlash from younger Taiwanese. Roll Call (2022-9-28): Most people do not want to join the military...

Trump says new tariffs on computer chips, semiconductors are coming soon
◆ NY Times, 2025-2-13	Taiwan is adjusting to a shift in its relationship with the United States, its primary backer — one that does not focus on shared democratic ideals, and that is more uncertain and transactional. Taiwanese officials have traveled to Washington to float energy deals and defend the island's semiconductors.
◆ Fortune, 2025-2-3	Taiwan offers to help firms move production to the U.S., Southeast Asia, or India as Trump threatens tariffs. a U.S. think tank argues that a tariff on Taiwanese chips would likely backfire. The organization claims that such a measure will increase prices, hurt U.S. tech firms, and damage relations with Taiwan, while also failing to drive chip and electronics manufacturing back to the U.S
◆ Washington Post, 2025-1-28	the vast majority of chip production happens overseas, particularly in Taiwan ── Trump said he wanted the manufacturers of semiconductors and chips — which are used in many high-end consumer electronics and sophisticated AI-powered technology and research — to open factories in the United States and would use the threat of high taxes and tariffs to force them to relocate.
◆ Politico (EU), 2025-1-30	Trump threatened to impose tariffs of up to 100 percent on Taiwanese semiconductor imports in a bid to “return production of these essential goods to the United States of America.” Taipei will convene “emergency discussions” to determine countermeasures...
◆ Reuters, 2025-1-28	Taiwan Economy Minister said he only expected a small impact from any tariffs imposed by Trump on semiconductor exports given their technological superiority. In another potential challenge for Taiwan, Trump last week directed federal agencies to investigate persistent U.S. trade deficits and unfair trade practices and alleged currency manipulation by other countries
◆ Business Insider, 2025-1-28	US tariffs on Taiwan's semiconductors could result in a steep increase in costs to Nvidia and other significant customers, such as Apple and AMD. Chip manufacturing efforts in the US are less developed and more expensive than those in Taiwan. the US's chip manufacturing sector could take years to develop the same capacity as Taiwan's.
◆ CNN, 2024-12-15	Trump's remarks have prompted jitters that Taiwan would need to move more of its critical chip supply chain to the US at a faster pace, that could affect the island's economic security and dismantle the very “silicon shield” ...

Taiwan Travel & Tourism
◆ CNN , 2024-11-14	Taiwan boasts 10 national parks and 19 national forest recreation areas covering a wide range of terrain; More than 260 peaks over 3,000 meters (9,800 feet), hiking trails blazed by Indigenous people thousands of years ago, for outdoor adventure and wellness fansmsn.com/en-us/travel/tripideas/taiwan-is-fast-becoming-a-top-destination-for-outdoor-adventure-and-wellness-fans-it-s-easy-to-see-why/ar-AA1u7c09?ocid=BingNewsVerp
◆ New York Times , 2023-1-12	In the Times Travel section's 52 places to go in 2023, Taipei ranks No. 36, other Asia's selections include No.2 Morioka Japan, No. 5 Auckland NZ, 7 kangaroo island Australia, 12 Bhutan, 13 Kerala India, 19 Fukuoka Japan, 20 Flores Indonesia, 25 Ha Giang Vietnam, 27 U-K Tjuta National Park, Australia nytimes.com/interactive/2023/travel/52-places-travel-2023.html?campaign_id=7&emc=edit_mbae_20230113&instance_id=82548&nl=morning-briefing%3A-asia-pacific-edition&regi_id=93861781&segment_id=122347&te=1&user_id=4a9594d616730fc2c1567d65a316b5f1
◆ Daily Telegraph, 2024-9-14	Taiwan has historically been a rare stop on the tourist trail– its appeal long limited by an association with geopolitical tension. telegraph.co.uk/travel/destinations/asia/taiwan/taiwan-deserves-place-on-your-wish-list/
◆ CNN , 2022-12-6	Taiwan's 'living hell' traffic is a tourism problem. Taiwan is notorious for its dangerous roads. Multiple countries, including Australia, Canada, Japan and the US, have specifically called out Taiwan's road conditions.
◆ STATISTA: Leading countries in the Travel & Tourism Competitiveness Index (TTCI), 2021-2-4	Taiwan ranks No.13 in Asia. No.1 Japan, No.2 Australia, No.3 China, No.4 Korea Rep., No.5 Hong Kong, No.6 Singapore, No.7 New Zealand, No.8 Malaysia, No.9 Thailand , No.10 UAE, No.11 India, No.12 Indonesia,

Taiwan's surface-level democracy
◆ Country Reports (USA) on Human Rights Practices , 2024-4-22	In the most recent presidential and legislative elections, there were allegations of vote buying by candidates and supporters of both major political parties.
◆ WSWS.org, 2025-1-6	TPP (2nd largest opposition) chair & founder Ko: “Does Taiwan have democracy?”─ "Taiwanese politics was dominated by corporations and political parties".
◆ Denmark's Democracy Perception Index 2021 ( DPI )	democracy in Taiwan was threatened by US: 58%, Russia: 20%,China : 65%, Foreign election interference - agree 55%, unfair elections and/or election fraud - Agree 46%.
◆ N.Y. Times, 12-1-2019	the soft underbelly of Taiwanese politics: patronage networks. They continue to allow community leaders, farmers’ associations and even organized-crime figures to buy votes
◆ National Interest, 2022-7-9	Taiwan is a young democratic country that is vulnerable to demagoguery by politicians trying to win elections ...
◆ New York Times, 6-28-2020	Taiwan’s democracy is boisterous with fights and protests a common occurrence inside the parliament building...
◆Global Times, 2022-8-11:	under the guise of "democracy", the DPP authorities are practicing "green terror".

◆ Lowy Institute Asia Power Index
	Taiwan	China	Japan	Korea	Singapore
Comprehensive Power	No.14 , 15.2 points	2nd	3rd	7th	8th
Economic capability	8th, 13.0	2nd 87.0	3rd	5th	6th
Military Capability	11th, 21.7	2nd 68.1	6th 27.4	5th	9th
Resilience	18th, 24.7	3rd 70.4	11th	10th	14th
Future Resources	12th, 6.5	2nd 72.9	5th	7th	11th
Diplomatic Influence	22th , 19.4	1st 91.5	3rd	6th	10th
Economic Relationships	12th, 11.1	1st 98.3	3rd	5th	4th
Cultural Influence	13th, 12.6	2nd 47.4	3rd	7th	9th
Defense Networks	16th, 11.8	7th 23.7	3rd	4th	5th
Asia's Comprehensive Power rankings: 1.US 2.Chn 3.Japan 4.India 5. Rus 6. Aus 7. S. Korea 8. Singapore 9.Indonesia 10.Thailand 11.Malaysia 12. Vietnam 13. NZ 14. Taiwan (ROC)
power.lowyinstitute.org/countries/taiwan/ 2023 Edition

Comparison - The number of best universities of Asian countries in world best indexes
index	world ranks	China	Singapore	Japan	H K	Australia	S. Korea	Taiwan
Nature	1-100	37	2	3	1		2
US News	1-100	4	2	1	4	8
QS	1-25	2	2	1	1	3	1
	25-60	3		1	2	3	1
	60-100			2	2	3	3	1
CWUR	1-100	6	1	3		2	1
Times	1-70	6	2	2	3	5	1
Times	70-100	1			2	1	2
Mar. 17, 2024 total		59	9	13	15	25	11	1
⊙ National Taiwan University (NTU) has been ranked the 172nd-best university in the world in the 2025 Times Higher Education (THE) rankings, down 20 spots from 2024. ⊙ Nature / after No.100 - Taiwan (NTU 台灣大學) ranks 208, behind Hong Kong (103. City U HK 108 Chinese U. HK 122. HKUST 207. HK Poly.), Australia (no. 112, 113, 134, 148), Israel (no. 86, 140, 176, 196), Saudi Arabia (145. KAUST), India (149 India U., 189. India Institute of Science) etc ⊙ QS / Taiwan (NTU ranks no. 69) is behind Malaysia (no. 65 U. Malaya) ⊙ CWUR / Taiwan (NTU no. 102) is behind Israel (no. 70, 87)

Taiwan's economy - compared with Asian countries
★	Hong Kong	Taiwan
Median wealth per adult (Credit Suisse, Research Institute, 2023 )	US$ 202,410 (world No.3)	US$ 108,250
Mean wealth per adult (Credit Suisse, Research Institute, 2023 )	US$ 551,190	US$ 273,790
The average salary (Morgan McKinley, Business Insider, 2023)	HK$ 36,583 (about TWD147,204)	TWD 48,032 (plus overtime etc TWD 57,045) - storm.mg/lifestyle/4851897
Median salary (UDN, 2023-12-14)	about TWD 84,000	about TWD 43,000
Market Capitalization (UDN, 2023-12-14)	more than double of Taiwan's	about USD 1.7 trillion
★ At the end of 2022, Taiwan's per capita GDP amounted to $32,756 while Singapore's was $82,808, Japan and South Korea were at $33,815 and $32,255, respectively, according to the World Bank.

World's Best Smart Hospitals 2025 by Newsweek
Asia's rank	country	number of top 100 hospitals
1	S. Korea	6 (No. 18, 60, 65, 94, 96,98)
2	Singapore	4 (No.22, 30, 45, 77)
3	Japan	3 (No. 23, 57, 85)
4	Israel	1 (No.10)
5	India	1 (No. 39)
6	Taiwan	1 (No.99)

World's Best Smart Hospitals 2024 by Newsweek, Statista comparison among Asian countries
Country/Ranks	No.1~100	No.101~200	No.201~250	Total
Japan	7	5	3	15
S. Korea	6	6	5	17
Israel	2	1		3
Singapore	2	4		6
Australia	2	4		6
India		2	1	3
Thailand		1		1
UAE		1		1
Malaysia			2	2
Taiwan 台灣			1	1
Saudi Arabia			1	1
Total	19	24	13	56
China, HK not included in survey in total, 11 Asian countries are under survey

Pew Research Center , 2021-11-18 "Where People find Meaning in Life ? "
country	Family	Material well-being	occupation
Australia	56%	22%	29%
NZ	55	19	29
Greece	54	13	25
US	49	18	17
UK	46	12	20
Sweden	45	22	37
Canada	42	22	26
Singapore	29	22	25
Japan	26	16	15
S. Korea	16	19	6
Taiwan	15%	19%	9%

World's most livable cities ... include Taiwan's ? top ranking list of the world's most livable cities
world best surveys	Taiwan's rankings in top list	comparison with other Asia & Pacific countries
EIU's Global Liveability Ranking 2022	No. 53	1. Vienna 2. Copenhagen 3. Zurich 4. Calgary 5. Vancouver 6. Geneva 7. Frankfurt 8. Toronto 9. Amsterdam 10. Osaka
The World's Best Cities to Live In 2022	failed top 10	1. London, 2. Tokyo, 3. Shanghai, 4. Singapore, 5. Melbourne, 6. Sydney, 7. Paris, 8. Beijing, 9. NY, 10. Amsterdam

Taiwan's housing
◆ Economist, 2025-1-30	Unaffordable-island!! Taiwanese youth complain of becoming “housing slaves”. Taiwan has over 9m housing units for only about 8m households. In Taipei, median house prices are 16 times the median income, which is higher than New York.
◆ Bloomberg, 2024-1-11	It costs 16 years of annual income to afford a home in Taipei — one of the highest such ratios globally. uk.news.yahoo.com/taiwan-voters-head-polls-ties-220000046.html

Trump's defense policy on Taiwan
◆ Politico (EU), 2025-1-30	Trump said the island should pay the U.S. for protection from China and suggested that trying to defend the island would be futile.
◆ Voice of America, 2024-12-26	Taiwan seeks clarity on Trump team policy amid Chinese pressure. There is still quite a bit of resistance not only within the security apparatus and armed forces, which don't like the idea of involving citizens in defense, the opposition parties have also sought to derail [relevant] plans and fundings. What may come next depends on Taiwan's actions and Beijing's assessment of Trump's policies toward the island after he takes office.
◆ New York Post, 2025-1-23	Trump says he can strike deals that would keep China out of Taiwan. “We have a pot of gold.”,“We have one very big power over China and that's tariffs”.
◆ Insider, 2024-12-26	Trump's next undersecretary of defense policy, Elbridge Colby, once called for the destruction of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company's chip plants if China takes over Taiwan. In Feb., Colby said "disabling or destroying TSMC is table stakes" if China invades Taiwan. The US and its allies can't afford to allow China to "have such dominance over global semiconductors," he wrote in 2023.

Taiwan has a plan for Trump's inauguration
◆ Radio Free Asia, 2025-1-20	Asia sends top officials to Trump inauguration amid concern over trade, security ── Trump's return raises fundamental questions in Asia, in particular the extent he will follow through on his promise to ramp up tariffs and his commitment to the security of old allies in an increasingly dangerous world. Taiwan's delegation will not be able to attend the inauguration “due to space constraints” in the Rotunda of the U.S. Capitol。Trump's talk of taking control of Greenland and the Panama Canal has triggered a wave of speculation in Chinese social media that he may be willing to let China take control of democratically ruled Taiwan. rfa.org/english/asia/2025/01/20/trump-inauguration-lookahead/
◆ Politico, 2024-12-20	Taiwan has a plan for Trump's inauguration. Taiwan is launching a new charm offensive on Washington ── dispatching a large delegation to Washington for the inauguration, which underscores how unnerved Taipei is over what Trump's return to the White House means for the self-governing island. The Council on Foreign Relations David Sacks: Taiwan is likely to try to address those perceptions by telling Trump and his team that Taiwan “is taking its defense seriously, that it's not a free rider.”

Taiwan has a Trump problem
◆ The Atlantics, 2024-10-25	The shortcomings of Taiwan's military lend some validity to Trump's complaint that America's allies don't pay enough for their own defense and dump too much of the responsibility onto the United States—a burden that a second Trump administration might not be committed to bear.
◆ New York Times, 2024-10-26	Mr. Trump criticized Taiwan, saying that “they stole our chip business”,“They want us to protect, ... They don't pay us money for the protection... The mob makes you pay money, right?”America's heavy reliance on Taiwan's semiconductors has been a growing source of concern among U.S. officials, given China's ongoing threats to invade the self-governing island.

Taiwan Prepares for Trump's Return.
◆ CNN, 2024-12-15	one thing's for sure: Trump is a less vocal supporter of Taiwan than Joe Biden. That's why Taiwan is buckling up for what could be a far more volatile relationship with Washington. Trump's remarks have prompted jitters that Taiwan would need to move more of its critical chip supply chain to the US at a faster pace, that could affect the island's economic security and dismantle the very “silicon shield” ...
◆ New York Times, 2024-11-24	Taiwan is ready to defend democracy. Is Trump? Maybe he will strike some sort of bargain with Taiwan. But whatever Taiwan can offer him, Beijing can easily top. More and more, there are those in Taiwan who say we are an “abandoned chess piece,” no longer valued by the United States. China amplifies these fears...
◆ Wall Street Journal, 2024-11-18	Some in Taiwan say its survival as a self-ruled democracy is at stake, that it can't afford to spend what Trump demands on defense and that it would wither in the crossfire of a U.S.-China trade war. Taiwan's military spending is currently at 2.45% of GDP—a lower share than Singapore's 2.8% and South Korea's 2.7%; In Washington, the percent of GDP is really seen as a proxy for your seriousness.

◆ New York Times, 2024-11-10	Taiwan's leading chip makers may face demands from the Trump administration to locate more production in the United States. Taiwan has already been raising its military spending, partly under pressure from Washington. But Mr. Trump has said that Taiwan should raise military spending to 10 percent of its gross domestic product (from about 2.6 percent). Sharply increasing military spending could be politically difficult for Taiwan's president. Beijing, for its part, appears poised to exploit any signs of discord between Washington and Taipei.
◆ Fox News, 2024-11-10	Trump's public comments might suggest that he would not be willing to put boots on the ground to face another global superpower in defense of a tiny island democracy (Taiwan). there is hope among restraint groups that Trump will be focused on economic warfare with China – rather than military. "We don't have that alliance with Taiwan, ... the Taiwan issue is a powder keg — it's exceedingly dangerous. "
◆ New York Times, 2024-11-6	Some diplomats in Asia expect China to intensify pressure on Taiwan, if not invade the self-governing island it claims as its territory; and China may calculate that Mr. Trump would not go to war for a democracy that he has accused of “stealing” the microchip industry from the United States. “With Donald Trump, there are large amounts of uncertainty,” said Lev Nachman, a political scientist, “And it's a matter of uncertainty that comes with great risk for Taiwan.”
◆ Washington Post, 2024-11-6	Trump's statements this year that raise doubt about his willingness to come to the island democracy's defense and his misleading assertion that Taipei needs to pay the US for defense. Such rhetoric could “fan the flames of skepticism” about American intent at a time when the Taiwanese are “directly threatened by CCP disinformation aimed at undermining U.S. credibility”
◆ New York Times, 2024-11-6 news briefing	Many believe Trump's foreign policy changes could have a greater impact than anything since the start of the Cold War. Trump could decide to do the true “America First” thing and withdraw completely, and basically say, "defending Taiwan is not in our interest.” But I doubt he's going to actually do that...
◆ Business Insider, 2024-11-9	In 2025, Taiwan will have to contend with uncertainty on whether the US will protect it, or play it.
◆ Bloomberg, 2024-11-5	Taiwan's Economic Affairs Minister acknowledged that Trump could introduce measures that might prove harmful for Taiwan's semiconductor industry. But the impact will not be as severe as some anticipate.
◆ Reuters, 2024-11-6	From Taiwan to trade, China braces for more rivalry as close US presidential race ends. Trump might try to use the Taiwan issue as a bargaining chip to gain leverage in other areas, such as offering to restrain Taiwan's provocative actions in exchange for Beijing's compromise on trade.

The US defends Taiwan ?
◆ The Australian, 2024-6-4	‘It depends’: Biden wavers on Taiwan defence
◆ TIME, 2024-6-4	Asked by Time magazine whether The US might involve boots on the ground, US President Joe Biden said, "It would depend on the circumstances""we are not seeking independence for Taiwan nor will we in fact, not defend Taiwan if they if, if China unilaterally tries to change the status...Not ruling out using US military force. There's a distinction between deploying on the ground, air power and naval power, etc"

◆ The Hill, 2023-9-26	During a Tokyo interview alongside Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, Biden repeated his statement on defending Taiwan: “That’s the commitment we made.” But, when asked whether “the policy of strategic ambiguity towards Taiwan [is] dead,” he replied “No.”
◆ National Review, 2023-9-19	It's noteworthy that Biden declined to say a single word about Taiwan in his U.N. speech came a day after the Chinese Communist Party's armed forces sent 103 jets into Taiwan’s air-defense identification zone — which is a new record that surpasses even the Chinese tantrum that followed then–House speaker Pelosi's visit to Taiwan.

Council on Foreign Relations, 2023-8-29 China VS. Taiwan
	China	Taiwan
active duty forces	2,035,000	170,000
artillery	9,800	1,200
principle surface combatants	139	57
fighter jets	1900	300
bombers and attack aircraft	450	0
submarines	71	2
cfr.org/blog/taiwan-announced-record-defense-budget-it-enough-deter-china

China's 'reunification' with Taiwan
◆ Reuters, 2024-6-2	Prospect of peaceful 'reunification' with Taiwan is being increasingly "eroded" by Taiwanese separatists and external forces (alluded to Washington), China says
◆ Wall Street Journal, 2024-6-2	Taiwanese political security, not simply military deterrence and rhetorical balancing, are key to Chinese success.

China Launches Military Drills Around Taiwan as 'Punishment', 'Reprisals'
◆ Washington Examiner, 2024-5-31	Foreign Affairs : invasion does not appear to be China's preferred option. Beijing's more probable plan is to gradually intensify the policy: a creeping encroachment into Taiwan's airspace, maritime space, and information space. The United States must become more alert to the dangers posed by a slow strangulation of Taiwan.
◆ FoxNews, 2024-5-28	House Foreign Affairs Chairman Michael McCaul said : "These war games to intimidate and protest the election from China are probably the most provocative I've ever seen in terms of the numbers of ships and planes", "we will probably lose if China invaded Taiwan."
◆ New York Times, 2024-5-27	“The United States must maintain the capacity to resist any resort to force or coercion that would jeopardize the security of the people of Taiwan,” Mr. McCaul, the chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee, said.
◆ New York Post, 2024-5-24	Beijing's endless saber-rattling over Taiwan proves just how high the stakes are for the United States.
◆ New York Times, 2024-5-22	China took offense to Mr. Lai's assertion that — they “are not subordinate to each other” — and his emphasis on Taiwan's democratic identity and warnings against threats from China. Beijing accused Mr. Lai of promoting formal independence for Taiwan ── the drill was “based on various stages of an invasion of Taiwan... might feature training to seize one of those islands".
◆ BBC, 2024-5-23	the ongoing exercise is aimed at "simulating a full-scale armed invasion of Taiwan"... for the first time also targeted the Taipei-controlled islands of Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu and Dongyin. China aims to show Taipei that its east is now exposed to Chinese attack, and to show the Americans that any effort to resupply or re-enforce Taiwan from the east is vulnerable to Chinese missile strikes and naval attack.
◆ AFP, 2024-5-23	China holds war games around Taiwan, vows flowing blood。 CCTV : the drills were partly aimed at rehearsing an economic blockade of the island, "strangle" Taiwan's critical Kaohsiung port to "severely impact" its foreign trade, and cut off "Taiwan's lifeline of energy imports" as well as "block the support lines that some US allies provide to 'Taiwan independence' forces". General S. Sklenka described the exercises as "concerning" but not unexpected.
◆ CNN, 2024-5-22	CCTV: creating an omnidirectional approach in pushing toward the island. An expert ( at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace) calls China's latest drills “an intimidation tactic, part of a pattern, not a sign of imminent war.” Beijing has a robust coercion kitbag from which it will mix and match, ratchet up and back and up again to signal its range of options to coerce and inflict pain。
◆ AFP, 2024-5-22	China slammed the inauguration speech of new Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te as a " downright 'confession of Taiwan independence'"

◆ Foreign Affairs, 2024-2-20 foreignaffairs.com/scared-strait brief
Raymond Kuo, Michael A. Hunzeker, Mark A. Christopher	GLASER, WEISS, AND CHRISTENSEN reply
(They) argue that Washington and Taiwan are not doing enough to assure Beijing of their intentions, in the process undermining deterrence in the Taiwan Strait.... providing more assurances will simply embolden Beijing to continue its threatening behavior. Conditional, credible consequences are now essential to encouraging a less bellicose Chinese policy...when deterrence is needed against a determined and capable rival, assurances that are not reciprocated can quickly become concessions.	we did not advocate an “assurance first” strategy that offers “concessions” to appease Beijing... the new military measures we think are needed for deterrence will be less effective if Beijing believes they are aimed at buttressing a unilateral assertion of independence by Taiwan or ... an alliance... China can attack out of fear. They may believe that Taiwan can safely assert permanent sovereign independence as long as there is sufficient military might in place to dissuade Beijing from attacking. If so, they are hardly alone, but we strongly disagree.

◆ Wall Street Journal, 2024-1-19: The prospect that Taiwanese voters might never elect a Beijing-friendly government again could tilt China toward harsher methods to seek unification, including military force ◆ Washington Post, 2024-1-17: The Taiwanese people showed they are not interested in becoming a pawn in the U.S.-China competition. Taiwan wants ties with both the US and China ◆ New York Times, 2024-1-17: A peaceful solution on Taiwan is slipping away. Chinese law explicitly states that Beijing may use force if possibilities for peaceful unification are “completely exhausted.”. Conflict between China and the United States just got a little more likely. ◆ New York Times, 2024-1-15: Taiwan's president-elect represents a setback for China. Some U.S. officials have warned, China will be increasingly ready to try to seize or subdue Taiwan by force... Lai may have to watch his tendency for occasional off-the-cuff remarks, which Beijing could exploit and turn into crises ◆ full text

Lai Ching-te won the presidency with 40 percent of the votes but his ruling DPP lost its majority in parliament. Lai's Biggest Challenge Lies Ahead
media	comments
New York Times, 2024-1-13	tensions are likely to rise; Lai Ching-te is an impulsive and politically biased figure, so we cannot rule out the possibility that unpredictable and unknown developments may occur during his tenure”,“I'm afraid it's very dangerous”, 'noting that Mr. Xi's views on Taiwan were clear. That includes his insistence that force can be used if necessary. nytimes.com/2024/01/13/world/asia/china-taiwan-election-result-analysis.html Damien Cave
CNN, 2024-1-13	Beijing has a wide range of coercive measures in its toolbox ; Analysts say China could escalate economic and military pressure on Taiwan to show its displeasure in the coming days and weeks, or save a more forceful response for May, when Lai takes office msn.com/en-us/news/world/taiwan-voters-dismiss-china-warnings-and-hand-ruling-party-a-historic-third-consecutive-presidential-win/ar-AA1mUnBb Eric Cheung, Wayne Chang, Nectar Gan and Jerome Taylor
Washington Post, 2024-1-13	China's military pressure campaign has fueled concerns of miscalculation that could spark conflict and draw in the United States. Analysts are watching closely to see if Beijing responds to Lai's victory with large-scale drills that could send tensions spiraling washingtonpost.com/world/2024/01/13/taiwan-president-lai-ching-te/ Christian Shepherd Vic Chiang
XinHua (China), 2024-1-13	China: the results reveal that the Democratic Progressive Party cannot represent the mainstream public opinion on the island...the elections will not change the basic landscape and development trend of cross-Strait relations, will not alter the shared aspiration of compatriots across the Taiwan Strait to forge closer ties, and will not impede the inevitable trend of China's reunification. english.news.cn/20240113/a669c1402683472ca4e420ca94fcd8df/c.html
Independent, 2024-1-14	Taiwan's new president Lai Ching-te issues defiant message to China after historic election win...The DPP is often criticised for only focusing on efforts to counter the threat from China while having no solutions for social and economic problems that have been troubling the Taiwanese people news.yahoo.com/taiwan-president-lai-ching-te-184055493.html
Euro News, 2024-1-13	China: Beijing wouldn't accept the election result as representing “the mainstream public opinion on the island,” without giving any evidence or justification.
TIME, 2024-1-13	...those disaffected by the ruling DPP vote and wanting a less confrontational approach to cross-strait relations, certainly exists. The final result proved this, with over half the electorate voting for the alternatives to the DPP. But a majority for an approach or idea that doesn't translate into majority support for a party cuts no ice. msn.com/en-us/news/world/lai-ching-te-won-taiwans-presidency-but-his-biggest-challenge-lies-ahead/ar-AA1mV0Au Kerry Brown
NHK (Japan), 2024-1-14	China noted that the results of the Saturday election reveal that the Democratic Progressive Party cannot represent the mainstream public opinion of Taiwan.
USA Today, 2024-1-13	The outcome of the vote will ultimately determine the nature of ties with China relative to the West and will have strong bearing on the state of play in the South China Sea
BBC, 2024-1-13	Taiwanese voters have chosen William Lai as their president in a historic election, cementing a path that is increasingly divergent from China. bbc.com/news/world-asia-67920532 Tessa Wong
The Hill, 2024-1-13	Taiwan elects ruling party candidate Lai Ching-te as president in high-stakes race Lauren Irwin news.yahoo.com/taiwan-elects-ruling-party-candidate-131754245.html
Reuters, 2024-1-13	US does not support Taiwan independence, Biden says
WSJ, 2024-1-13	Taiwan voters defy Beijing in electing new president
Vox, 2024-1-13	there is expectation among some China experts that China's response will be “assertive”... it's likely to happen in the coming weeks or months, not in the next few days.“We're going to see a reaction from China; the question is, when and how,”'“Whereas five, 10, 15 years ago, it was fairly predictable — the kinds of things that Beijing would do. But I think it's increasingly difficult to predict what is going to happen and when it's likely to happen msn.com/en-us/news/world/in-taiwan-s-high-stakes-elections-china-is-the-loser/ar-AA1mVl3g Ellen Ioanes

western media	♣ Taiwan's presidential election - could reignite U.S.-China tensions
Washington Post, 2023-11-28	Beijing calls the race a “choice between war and peace” and it has escalated an intimidation campaign around the island democracy, taking Chinese military aggression in the Taiwan Strait to heights unseen in decades... a vote that could reignite U.S.-China tensions if Beijing takes the results badly. brief
Washington Post, 2023-11-28	Our policy, therefore, has to be not truculence and deterrence but to make sure that push does not come to shove. That means ... scrupulously avoiding support for Vice President Lai Ching-te. brief
CNBC, 2023-11-27	Chinese government has framed this elections as a choice between “peace and war, prosperity and decline.” The outcome of Taiwan’s elections will likely go some way in influencing testy U.S.-China ties and impact security in the Asia-Pacific region more broadly. brief
Bloomberg, 2023-11-26	an unprecedented third straight term in power for the DPP is by no means a foregone conclusion. After almost eight years in power, there's growing unhappiness with the party and a desire for change, especially among younger voters. brief
Reuters, 2023-11-28	China repeated its attacks on Lai and Hsiao "distorted facts and downplayed the harmfulness and danger of 'Taiwan independence' separatist activities to deceive voters in the 2024 leadership election in Taiwan" brief
SCMP, 2023-11-29	Taiwan poll: DPP senses win with Lai-Hsiao ticket but Beijing might see 'war'

◆ New York Times, 2023-11-26: Taiwan, a highly online society, has repeatedly been found to be the top target in the world for disinformation from foreign governments. RAND: China's disinformation work has had “measurable effects”. Critics denounced the government's anti-disinformation campaign as a political witch hunt, Taiwan's media ecosystem, with its diverse political leanings, often produces pro-Beijing content that can be misattributed to Chinese manipulation.

media	Biden-Xi meeting
USA Today, 2023-11-15	Biden and Xi spar over Taiwan, Xi said there are no plans for military action, but stressed the need for an eventual resolution
Foreign Policy, 2023-11-15	Taiwan’s Room to Maneuver Shrinks as Biden and Xi Meet; As the latest crisis in the Taiwan straits wraps up, Taipei is on the back foot.
France 24, 2023-11-15	Taiwan set to dominate talks as Xi meets Biden，from Beijing's perspective, the most important issue in the US-China relationship will be over Taiwan
New York Times, 2023-11-16	The two nations have spiraled into their worst relationship in four decades, and Biden’s primary goal was simple: Find a way to keep an increasingly bitter competition with China from tipping into conflict

US Congress CRS Report, 2023-8-24 - Taiwan: Defense and Military Issues
crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF12481

♣ Civil military relations are strained for historical, political, and bureaucratic reasons. The archipelago’s energy, food, water, internet, and other critical infrastructure systems are vulnerable to external disruption. Civil defense preparedness is insufficient, ... Taiwan's military struggles to recruit, retain, and train personnel. It is not clear what costs—in terms of economic security, well-being, safety and security, and lives—Taiwan's people would be willing or able to bear ...
♣ persistent, low-level, non-combat operations that analysts say are eroding Taiwan's military advantages and readiness... unmanned combat aerial vehicle flights near and encircling Taiwan, and reported flights of unmanned aerial vehicles in the airspace of Kinmen...The normalization of PLA operations ever closer to Taiwan's main island in peacetime could undermine “routine” operations or exercises to obscure preparations for an attack. If the PLA were to use such operations as cover for an imminent attack, it could significantly shorten the time Taiwan would have to respond
♣ many observers argue that Taiwan's military is insufficiently equipped to defeat a possible PRC armed attack. observers have raised concerns about impediments to the timely delivery of U.S. defense items to Taiwan.

#MeToo in Taiwan
◆ New York Times, 2023-7-27	our society remains patriarchal and hierarchical. Under Confucian values, women obey their fathers and their brothers and eventually their husbands. People are expected to respect and yield to their elders and superiors — in short, the powers that be... In a collectivist culture like ours, the burden of being nice and preserving group harmony falls on those with less power and authority nytimes.com/2023/07/27/opinion/taiwan-women-metoo.html Vickie Wang
◆ Reuters, 2023-7-28	Despite Taiwan's reputation as a progressive bastion in a conservative region - the first place in Asia to legalise same-sex marriage...to confront a problem long shrouded in shame and silence. victims of abuse often stay silent due to what experts say is a tradition of victim-blaming, cultural pressure, and unequal power relationships. .reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/years-after-metoo-first-swept-world-taiwan-races-respond-2023-07-28/ Sarah Wu

◆ New York Times, 2023-6-25

torrent of sexual harassment accusations has prompted questions about the state of women's rights on an island democracy ... entrenched sexism that leaves women vulnerable at work, and a culture that is quick to blame victims and cover up accusations against powerful men. nytimes.com/2023/06/25/world/asia/taiwan-harassment-metoo.html

#MeToo in Taiwan
◆ CNN, 2023-6-10	The fallout from the #MeToo revelations risks adding more uncertainty to the all-important presidential race. Taiwan, priding itself on gender equality, is facing its own reckoning over sexual harassment. Most sexual harassment victims were told to "let it go" ... Such culture of self-sacrifice is deep rooted in Taiwan's political reality, where the "big picture" often comes above everything else. Only when it happens across society – including in more conservative circles, will it be the real #MeToo moment. edition.cnn.com/2023/06/10/asia/taiwan-metoo-netflix-wave-makers-intl-hnk/index.html
◆ The Guardian, 2023-6-8	The belated #MeToo reckoning has exposed the deeply patriarchal norms that still govern Taiwanese society. while these accusations had played out in the court of public opinion, in formal legal proceedings they were unlikely to succeed. theguardian.com/world/2023/jun/08/taiwan-ruling-party-rocked-sexual-harassment-claims-metoo AmyHawk
◆ Washington Post, 2023-6-7	The #MeToo accusations have caused the DPP's favorability ratings to plummet just as Taiwan gears up for a tough election campaign. The ruling party risks losing to the nationalist Kuomintang. people across Taiwan have now come forward with experiences of harassment by university professors, doctors, directors and baseball umpires. But the government has until now been slow to respond to reported cases of sexual harassment. msn.com/en-us/news/world/hit-netflix-show-sparks-a-wave-of-metoo-allegations-in-taiwan/ar-AA1cefPH Vic Chiang, Meaghan Tobin
◆ Wall Street Journal, 2023-6-7	Sexual misconduct allegations roil Taiwan's U.S.-friendly ruling party. wsj.com/articles/sexual-misconduct-allegations-roil-taiwans-u-s-friendly-ruling-party-5b0d8894 Joyu Wang Wenxin Fan
◆ SCMP, 2023-6-11	NTU prof. Tso Chen-dong: the DPP has greatly disappointed the public as ... referring to the party's pledges to promote gender equality and human rights. DPP had long focused on LGBTQ equality, rather than women's rights. scmp.com/news/china/politics/article/3223609/wave-metoo-cases-threatens-engulf-taiwans-ruling-democratic-progressive-party Lawance Chung

◆ Fox News, 2023-7-28
The coming China war over Taiwan - The US should fight alongside allies, not in their place

♦ a critical question – is Taiwan committed to its own defense? There are multiple indications that the answer is no.
♦ perhaps most alarmingly, some Taiwanese youth, it turns out, are reluctant to die for their country.Research in 2018: Large numbers of young Taiwanese were "apathetic toward the military and averse to service."
♦ Biden must show leadership now, before it’s too late, and force Taiwan to participate much more in its own defense...
foxnews.com/opinion/coming-china-war-over-taiwan-needs-american-leadership-before-too-late Rebekah Koffler

National Interest, 2023-6-20 nationalinterest.org/feature/are-taiwanese-confident-americans-will-defend-them-206566 “How confident are you that the U.S. would defend Taiwan if China were to start a war against Taiwan?”a web survey (implemented by Macromill Embrain)
	overall	DPP	KMT	TPP
not at all confident	26.61%	3.23%	55.63%	32.12%
not very confident	37.92	23.12	29.38	48.91
fairly	27.96	48.92	12.50	16.79
very confident	7.51	24.73	2.50	2.19

NBC, 2022-12-27: Taiwan to extend military conscription to one year, citing threat from China
WSJ, 2022-12-27	a once politically unpalatable move that has become imperative in the face of growing concerns about a Chinese attack and intensifying competition between Washington and Beijing. wsj.com/articles/taiwan-to-extend-mandatory-military-service-11672129529
PBS, AP, 2022-12-27	The White House welcomed the announcement on conscription reform, saying it underscores Taiwan’s commitment to self-defense and strengthens deterrence...mong the youngest demographic group of 20-24, however, only 35.6 percent said they would support an extension pbs.org/newshour/world/taiwan-extends-compulsory-military-service-from-4-months-to-1-year
CNN, 2022-12-27	Chinese soldiers can only make an amphibious landing after taking control of the air and the sea...before they land, there will likely be bombing and blockade, and we need people to deliver goods and guide residents to air raid shelters edition.cnn.com/2022/12/27/asia/taiwan-military-conscription-intl-hnk/index.html
Washington Post, 12-27	It had been a widely debated topic for a long time, but faced with Chinese threats, the government was left little room to be hesitant washingtonpost.com/world/2022/12/27/taiwan-military-mandatory-service-china/
Mainichi Japan , 2022-12-28	The change is said to have come at the request of the United States mainichi.jp/english/articles/20221227/p2g/00m/0in/058000c
GT (China), 2022-12-27	"a deplorable decision" made under US pressure / the DPP authorities might incorporate some conscripts into the "cyber army" to engage in collecting intelligence and conduct information warfare against the mainland, given their relatively weak capabilities on the real battlefield. ...expecting that the US may ask Taiwan authorities to increase the defense budget to purchase more US weapons and ensure the island's military is in line with US strategy. globaltimes.cn/page/202212/1282753.shtml 12-27

Can "silicon shield" protect Taiwan?

CNN, 2022-12-9

Taiwan worries about losing its ‘silicon shield’ / TSMC's presence gives a strong incentive to the West to defend Taiwan against any attempt by China to take it by force...Chiu (a lawmaker) claimed that the chip giant was under political pressure to move its operations and its most advanced technology to the US. edition.cnn.com/2022/12/09/tech/taiwan-tsmc-chips-hnk-intl/index.html

USA Today, 2022-12-9

America just won a major victory over China. If China seized control of Taiwan's semiconductor factories, the global economic loss would be "mutually assured destruction." usatoday.com/story/opinion/columnist/2022/12/09/biden-tsmc-semiconductor-arizona-win-us-over-china/10847994002/

Financial Times, 2022-12-12

TSMC's investments in the US and elsewhere are stoking fears over ‘hollowing out’ of Taiwan's economy... Premier Su has already stated that TSMC is not free to transfer its technology wherever it wishes ft.com/content/2408b289-dbf4-40db-87db-eb272aef68b9

New York Times, 2022-12-6

In Phoenix, a Taiwanese Chip Giant Builds a Hedge Against China ...But the company set a limit on the factory’s level of production technology nytimes.com/2022/12/06/technology/tsmc-chips-factory-phoenix.html

Reuters, 2022-12

Taiwan seeks to reassure on TSMC commitment to island despite U.S. investment msn.com/en-us/money/markets/taiwan-seeks-to-reassure-on-tsmc-commitment-to-island-despite-u-s-investment/ar-AA14ZR39

Bloomberg, 2022-10-7

some advocate the US make clear to China that it would destroy TSMC facilities if the island was occupied...Such a “scorched-earth strategy” scenario appeared in the November 2021 issue of the US Army War College Quarterly. finance.yahoo.com/news/taiwan-tensions-spark-round-us-090131394.html?fr=sycsrp_catchall

TIME, 2022-10-5

Taiwan's President Tsai Ing-wen recently argued in Foreign Affairs that the island's chip industry is a “‘silicon shield’ that allows Taiwan to protect itself and others from aggressive attempts by authoritarian regimes to disrupt global supply chains.” That's a highly optimistic way of looking at the situation. time.com/6219318/tsmc-taiwan-the-center-of-the-world/

New York Times, 2022-9-9

Taiwan is protected by something far more subtle —The "silicon shield"...If it is clear that China will be better off with a steady flow of chips from Taiwan, peace is likely to prevail

New York Times, 2022-8-29

Analysts debate how much protection China's reliance on Taiwan gives it. Some argue that calculations over supply chains are insignificant in a decision over war.

National Interest, 2022-5-15

Taiwan's “silicon shield”—the name for a strategy that entrusts the island's defense to both Chinese and American reliance on its semiconductors—is an outmoded concept that burdens the United States, emboldens Taiwan, and fails to deter China

VOA News, 2021-5-10

Song Hong, assistant general director at the Institute of World Economics and Politics under the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences shrugged off the geopolitical implications of Taiwan’s silicon shield, saying that China views Taiwanese issues as domestic affairs and will not be deterred from its goals by U.S. action

AIT (US), 2021-5-22

Taiwan should not regard TSMC as a guaranteed security blanket.

Fox News, 2022-8-26

Why would the U.S. fight China over Taiwan, Trade is the key reason and the aforementioned importance of semiconductor production is the glue

The Atlantic, 2022-10-3

The U.S. Has a Microchip Problem. A Chinese attack on the island would imperil the world’s supply of semiconductor components. Safeguarding Taiwan Is the Solution. theatlantic.com/international/archive/2022/10/taiwan-microchip-supply-chain-china/671615/

New York Times, 2022-1-25

75 percent of production takes place in East Asia. Ninety percent of the most advanced chips are made in Taiwan...China could use economic coercion, cyberoperations and hybrid tactics to try to seize or harm Taiwan's semiconductor industry — Biden promised he would work to bring production of semiconductor chips back to the United States. nytimes.com/2022/01/26/us/politics/computer-chip-shortage-taiwan.html

CBS News, 2022-9-25

Blinken said. "[Which is] one of the reasons we're now investing so heavily in our own capacity to produce semiconductors here in the United States. We designed them, but the actual production is done in a handful of places, and Taiwan produces most of them… The effects that that would have on the global economy would be devastating."

Taiwan dominates the global production of computer chips / ◆ BBC, 2022-1-12, source: The Military Balnce, IISS 2021
Taiwan	S. Korea	China	Other
65%	18%	5%	12%
news.yahoo.com/china-taiwan-really-simple-guide-142542268.html

◆ Reuters, 2022-11-27: Tsai had tried to frame the elections as more than just a local vote, saying the world is watching how Taiwan defends its democracy amid tensions with China... But her strategy failed to win public support.◆ Bloomberg, 2022-11-26: Taiwan Counts Votes in Elections Set to Shape Presidential Race ; Expert: The winners of elections will have a say in who get picked to in the subsequent presidential elections ◆ Washington Post, 2022-11-23: Despite consistent prodding from Washington, however, Taipei is also not nationalistic enough in the sense that it hasn’t engaged in the kind of military preparation necessary to deter an attack. Its political leaders are reluctant to reduce their dependence on U.S. protection ◆Wall Street Journal, 2022-11-23: ...the persistent fecklessness of Taiwanese government's defense policy, whose bottom line is that the island should be defended by others while Taiwan's youth can continue to play video games.◆ Economist, 2022-11-24: Where might conflict flare up in 2023? Keep an eye on Taiwan and the South China Sea—and the Himalayas

"Taiwan's midterms" ◆ Wall Street Journal, 2022-11-28: Taiwan Ruling Party's election drubbing could ease tension with China and persuade Chinese leaders that they can peacefully influence politics there. ◆ CNN,2022-11-27: Taiwan's President billed midterms as all about China. The pro-independence DPP's losses come as a heavy blow for Tsai as she had tried to frame the election – as a way to send a message against Beijing’s rising bellicosity toward the island. edition.cnn.com/2022/11/27/asia/taiwan-election-analysis-intl-hnk/index.html ◆ DPP-friendly mass media FTV (民視, 2022-11-28, 2022-11-27; ftvnews.com.tw/video/detail/h0489vFQzf4, youtube.com/watch?v=2Nn4iEsCHGA, etc ) analyzed that one main factor causing DPP drubbed in local vote is war fears. " Taiwan president strategy 'resist China and defend Taiwan' backfires" (Reuters, 2022-11-27).
media	comments
Reuters, 2022-11-27	Tsai had tried to frame the elections as more than just a local vote, saying the world is watching how Taiwan defends its democracy amid tensions with China... But her strategy failed to win public support. news.yahoo.com/taiwan-presidents-election-strategy-backfires-185831747.html
Independent (UK), 2022-11-27	Tsai's DPP campaigned on the political anger against China's stance towards Taiwan, the KMT focussed more on the self-ruled island’s democracy and freedom; Its campaign also pointed to whether the government favoured a local vaccine over imported ones. msn.com/en-gb/news/world/taiwan-election-president-tsai-ing-wen-resigns-as-ruling-party-chair-after-disastrous-results/ar-AA14BJm0
Global Times (China), 2022-11-28	A loud "No" to DPP authorities' policies on a wide range of topics related to people's livelihoods including the chaotic COVID-19 response and the failure to rein in rising prices, and also demonstrated that Tsai Ing-wen''s "China threat bet" has backfired. Such results proved the mainstream public opinion on the island was for peace. Besides, failures in handling frequent scandals violating "values" it boasted about, corruption, black gold politics and nepotism severely violated what the DPP had pledged to the people, in many cases DPP sacrificed the interests of ordinary people and local companies such as relaxing a ban on food imports from Japan's sites of Fukushima nuclear disaster, and the US pork with ractopamine, DPP appeared to be incapable of handling the prices and livelihoods crises, and have also mulled lengthening the mandatory military service, a very unpopular idea among the youth. globaltimes.cn/page/202211/1280569.shtml
China Times (Taiwan), 2022-11-27	A very critical and important factor is the Taiwanese people's fear of war, which made Tsai's "resist China and defend Taiwan" policy fail, possible extending military service to resist China is unpopular among young voters .... Besides, Yilan county magistrates Lin Zimiao (林姿妙) and HsinChu mayoral candidate Gao Hongan(高虹安) both appealed for "suppression by the state apparatus". chinatimes.com/opinion/20221127002671-262110?chdtv brief 黃智賢
Bloomberg, 2022-11-26	Taiwan Counts Votes in Elections Set to Shape Presidential Race ; Expert: The winners of elections will have a say in who get picked to in the subsequent presidential elections news.yahoo.com/taiwan-votes-local-elections-set-000000672.html?fr=sycsrp_catchall

Biden : "U.S. forces, U.S. men and women would defend Taiwan" (CBS,2022-9-18)

CNN (US), 2022-9-20 looks like the US has moved from ambiguity to deterrence... Biden's remarks don't necessarily equate to how he would behave in a real crisis. edition.cnn.com/2022/09/19/world/joe-biden-taiwan-answer-analysis/index.html

Bloomberg, 2022-9-20 “Such comments will do more to feed Beijing's sense of urgency than they will bolster deterrence” Taiwan's leaders could move closer to independence — U.S. allies like Japan or South Korea will almost certainly be made more uneasy... risks pulling them into a war msn.com/en-us/news/world/biden-s-vow-to-defend-taiwan-makes-us-policy-shift-explicit/ar-AA123qxX

Japan Times (Japan), 2022-9-20 Cornell prof. called Biden's remarks “dangerous", this new combo (a pledge to send troops + decisions about independence are Taiwan’s) suggests an unconditional commitment, U.S. is issuing Taiwan a blank check japantimes.co.jp/news/2022/09/20/asia-pacific/politics-diplomacy-asia-pacific/biden-taiwan-remarks-uncertainty/

Washington Examiner (US),
2022-9-20 wrong to commit to Taiwan's defense unambiguously, two key concerns here. (1) Taiwan's defense spending remains ludicrously low in face of the existential threat it faces. (2) It's one thing to tell a pollster that you're willing to fight and die for your country. It's a different thing to take painstaking steps to prepare for that eventuality. And the hard truth is that far too few Taiwanese are currently taking those steps msn.com/en-us/news/world/the-two-problems-with-bidens-taiwan-defense-pledge/ar-AA120KGw

Politico, 2022-9-19 The big question is, what are the costs we're really willing to pay?” Stanford's Skylar Mastro said. politico.com/news/2022/09/19/biden-leaves-no-doubt-strategic-ambiguity-toward-taiwan-is-dead-00057658

Washington Post, 2022-9-19 Yet presidential pronouncements alone can only deter China so much... Congress should provide Mr. Biden and his successors with a stronger set of legislative instructions washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/09/19/biden-china-taiwan-60-minutes/

DW (Germany), 2022-9-19

scholars: "it can lead to very different results than what Biden might be thinking he has the capacity to do,"," US "strategic ambiguity is becoming more strategic and less ambiguous." dw.com/en/biden-us-forces-would-defend-taiwan-if-china-invades/a-63166248

Le Monde (France), 2022-9-19

Alors que l’occupant de la Maison Blanche a tenu des propos forts sur le dossier taïwanais dimanche soir, la Chine a dénoncé « une grave violation de [son] engagement important à ne pas soutenir l’indépendance de Taïwan . lemonde.fr/international/article/2022/09/19/joe-biden-affirme-que-les-etats-unis-defendraient-taiwan-en-cas-d-invasion-chinoise_6142183_3210.html

France 24 (France), 2022-9-19

most explicit statement so far on the issue, something sure to anger Beijing.。Biden's Asia policy czar, Kurt Campbell, has in the past rejected any move to "strategic clarity" over Taiwan, saying there were "significant downsides" to such an approach”msn.com/en-gb/news/world/biden-says-us-forces-would-defend-taiwan-if-china-invades/ar-AA11YIsO

Daily Express (UK), 2022-9-19

Bonnie Glaser: " if Mr Biden makes such pledges he needs the "capability" to back them up, If President Biden plans to defend Taiwan, then he should make sure the U.S. military has the capability to do so", “"Rhetorical support that isn't backed up by real capabilities is unlikely to strengthen deterrence" express.co.uk/news/world/1671100/Joe-Biden-Taiwan-China-Xi-Jinping-CBS-Nancy-Pelosi-White-House-ont

Bloomberg (US), 2022-9-19

Expert Bonnie Glaser: “China has long assumed that the US would intervene to defend Taiwan, so these statements don’t change PLA plans”, Prof. Lev Nachman: “The worry is that this will exacerbate Taiwan's current high-tension moment rather than reduce it.。” Bloomberg msn.com/en-us/news/world/biden-says-us-would-defend-taiwan-from-unprecedented-attack/ar-AA11Yf55

Washington Post (US), 2022-9-19	Biden’s most hawkish comments on Taiwan yet / The implications for that are huge. This is still in the realm of the hypothetical washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/09/19/biden-taiwan-china-defense/
Global Times (CHN) , 2022-9-19	his most explicit answer so far on the question, which analysts believe suggested a shifting process in Washington's decades-long "strategic ambiguity" policy ...not only his personal views, but also those in his White House team and various political forces on Capitol Hill. China clearly knows that the US is trying to erode its "one-China policy." If the US moves further toward such "strategic clarity" that is entirely targeted against the Chinese mainland and supports Taiwan's pro-independence behaviors, we will certainly have diplomatic, military and economic countermeasures for them, Xin said. globaltimes.cn/page/202209/1275600.shtml
The Conversation (Australia), 2022-9-20	so does this support mean economic aid, supply of weapons or U.S. boots on the ground? China and Taiwan are left guessing if – and to what extent – the U.S. will be involved in any China-Taiwan conflict. news.yahoo.com/biden-again-indicates-us-defend-181440760.html

Chicago Tribune, 2022-9-23

At what cost to US national interests? if China needs to be confronted militarily (and that's unlikely), Taiwan is precisely the wrong place to try to do that chicagotribune.com/opinion/commentary/ct-opinion-taiwan-china-biden-tensions-20220922-tjd6rxcmozgunew3djsycoodsa-story.html

No guarantee that U.S. military will hold the same view as Biden to defend Taiwan

♣ Foreign Policy, Politico, 2022-10-2: Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin declined to directly endorse President Joe Biden’s statement that the U.S. military would defend Taiwan politico.com/news/2022/10/02/lloyd-austin-china-taiwan-biden-00059922
♣ The Hill, 2022-10-3: US defense chief sidesteps questions on Biden’s pledge to defend Taiwan news.yahoo.com/us-defense-chief-sidesteps-questions-200504858.html

♣ VICE, 2022-9-28: no guarantee that the next U.S. president will hold the same view as Biden, given the lack of a formal commitment by the U.S. military to intervene in the event of an attack by the PLA vice.com/en/article/m7gp7v/taiwan-defense-china-invasion-conscripts

Contrast Taiwan Strait Crisis in 1996 and 2022
◆ New York Times, 2022-8-5	the U.S. military had ordered the U.S.S. Ronald Reagan to “remain on station” in the region but some distance from the entrance to the Taiwan Strait.，... during a crisis in 1996, when President Bill Clinton moved aircraft carriers closer to the strait. (PS: and conducted large scale drills zh.m.wikipedia.org/zh-hant/台灣海峽飛彈危機 ) nytimes.com/2022/08/04/world/asia/taiwan-china-military-drills.html
◆ New York Times, 2022-8-4	... failing to move more naval forces into the region, the United States would be perceived by Mr. Xi as less committed to the region than Mr. Clinton was a quarter century ago.
◆ United Daily (Taiwan) , 2022-8-5	The drill has been conducted under US tacit permission, which shakes the policy of peaceful resolution... udn.com/news/story/11091/6515486?from=udn_ch2cate6643sub11091_pulldownmenu_v2
◆ USA Today, 2022-8-6	National Security Council:U.S. would postpone intercontinental ballistic missile test scheduled... reducing the risks of miscalculation and misperception news.yahoo.com/china-halts-climate-military-ties-152347684.html?fr=sycsrp_catchall
◆ Global Times (China), 2022-8-5	the US Navy's Ronald Reagan carrier strike group retreated hundreds of kilometers eastward overnight, after the PLA announced live-fire exercise zones east of the island。

China's Missiles over Taiwan in 2022-8-5
◆ CNN, 2022-8-4	missiles flying over the island marked a significant escalation
◆ New York Times, 2022-8-3	China's CCTV stated that one of the missiles flew over Taiwan, marking another escalation of Chinese pressure on the island and risking serious miscalculation.

China's "staging the largest-ever People's Liberation Army exercises around Taiwan" (Newsweek,2022-8-5) WHY ??
NY Times, 2022-8-4	Stanford scholar: “Under the guise of signaling, they’re trying to basically test their ability to conduct complex maneuvers that are necessary for an amphibious assault on Taiwan.” nytimes.com/2022/08/03/world/asia/taiwan-china-military-exercises.html
Business Insider, 2022-8-5	"a show of force to respond to Pelosi's visit" and "to exhibit [China's] displeasure" and "presumably to deter the US or other countries from undertaking visits like this ..." "readiness to respond to Taiwan provocations" news.yahoo.com/chinas-missile-launches-military-drills-211102958.html?fr=sycsrp_catchall
AFP (France), 2022-8-6	a former CIA Asia analyst: main purpose with its military exercises was to change that status quo.，"The Chinese want to show... that a line has been crossed by the speaker's visit." American University Professor: Beijing's message was meant to signal that China can alter the power balance in the region if it chooses. "The Chinese seriously believe that the United States has not been respecting their interests on the Taiwan issue" news.yahoo.com/us-china-relations-risk-long-215317757.html?fr=sycsrp_catchall
The Times (UK), 2022-8-6	Chinese jets menace Taiwan in an end to diplomacy
Global Times (Chn), 2022-8-5	Some Taiwan-based media hyped that the mainland's economic punishment could antagonize the public... "If the mainland opts for economic sanctions, it may terminate the Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA)"... Taiwan had a trade surplus of more than $170 billion with the Chinese mainland in 2021. globaltimes.cn/page/202208/1272245.shtml
NY Times, 2022-8-8	not only to intimidate Taiwan and the United States, but also to appease a domestic audience that had seemed disappointed by what it perceived as an insufficiently bellicose posture. cn.nytimes.com/asia-pacific/20220808/china-exercises-taiwan/zh-hant/dual/
BBC, 2022-8-9	this may possibly intimidate South East Asian neighbours which have rival claims to the South China Sea bbc.com/news/62460809
PS:New York Times, 2022-8-7: After China's Military Spectacle, Options Narrow for Winning Over Taiwan ; Reuters, 2022-8-7: The ability to enforce a blockade would give Beijing leverage to bring Taiwan to the negotiating table ;A former Chinese defence official :"Seeing how the U.S. and its allies responded to the drills, how confident can Taiwan leaders be in counting on them to come to the rescue should the PLA attack?"

National Interest, 2023-7-16 - Willing to fight ?
China	Taiwan
a study conducted by Adam Y. Liu and Xiaojun Li, 55 percent of the respondents supported “launching a unification war ” while 33 percent opposed it ... another online survey in ThinkChina and Taiwan Inside, 53.1 percent supported armed unification with Taiwan, while 39.19 percent opposed it among Chinese elites.	Instead of making a commitment to defend their territory, most Taiwanese people have a huge hope to rely on external support, particularly from the United States... extension of the compulsory conscription program received backlash from younger Taiwanese.

Taiwan war - ready to fight ?

Taiwan

China

◆ Wall Street Journal, 2023-7-5: Taiwan is far from ready, Taiwan's military budget is still only 2.4% of the GDP—compared with about 5% in Israel. The professionalism and motivation of Taiwan's military are a particular concern. A lot of young people who signed up for the four-year volunteer force decided to pay a penalty and dropped out early because they say they had come for the money—not to fight and not to die wsj.com/articles/taiwan-china-ukraine-russia-hong-kong-military-war-517b87d?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo Yaroslav Trofimov Joyu Wang

◆ Sky News Australia, 2023-7-8: Xi calls for 'enhanced war planning'

◆ WION 2023-7-7: Xi says the PLA must dare to fight. Beijing has ramped up political and military pressure on Taipeimsn.com/en-in/video/watch/dare-to-fight-chinas-president-inspects-forces-in-flashpoint-region-near-taiwan-details/vi-AA1dxGfN

Is Taiwan willing to fight for itself ?
New York Times, 2021-8-16: Biden: American troops cannot and should not be fighting in a war and dying in a war that Afghan forces are not willing to fight for themselves.
Taiwanese army	◆ L.A. Times, 2022-3-20: over much of the last decade, Taiwan moved in the opposite direction: It cut the size of its regular army and reduced the training of its reserves. ◆ Economist, 2022-4-23: The infantry's strongest skills,... are “painting walls, picking grass and falsifying documents”... ◆ Financial Times (UK), 7-12-2020 : Politicians in Taiwan are even afraid to discuss these issues with the public because they believe Taiwanese are not willing to sacrifice... ◆ Foreign Policy, 2020-10-19 : Given these electoral realities, Taiwan's leaders have gravitated toward military showpieces — while hoping that the United States will save the day if China ever attacks. however, the United States may not be up to the task. ◆ Economist, 2022-3-5: Taiwanese seem too uninterested to fight to defend their land. Taiwan's sloth in reforming its defence capabilities ...
imported wrong weapons	◆ L.A. Times, 2022-3-20: It invested in high-end weapons beloved by military brass, like F-16s and Abrams tanks, instead of more mundane tools that might deter a shipborne invader: antiaircraft weapons, anti-ship missiles and advanced mines. ◆ Foreign Policy, 2020-10-19: Taiwan's advanced aircraft, ships, and tanks operating from large bases—precisely the kind of forces that China can now destroy with a surprise air and missile barrage. ◆ NBC, 2021-3-27: Taiwan's air force is wiped out within minutes. ◆ Economist 2022-4-23: American critics question the billions being spent on expensive systems, ... many of the high-end weapons will be quickly destroyed or rendered ineffective. ◆ Taiwan needs lots of asymmetric mobile defense weapons.
Taiwan's weapons	Taiwan has been developing some military planes, ships ... udn.com/news/story/7338/6254658?from=udn-catehotnews_ch2 ◆ Forbes 2021-4-19: for AIDC, is it worth it to spend extra billions on planes that might get blown up on the ground five minutes after war breaks out?

Taiwan VS. US's "porcupine" weapons

The US disagrees Taiwan's requests for big-ticket weapons

◆ Economist, 2022-5-10:These flashier purchases are politically popular... Some of Taiwan’s political and military leaders believe it is more important to counter such “grey zone” attacks than to prepare for an invasion. A full-scale assault has long been hypothetical, after all, while incursions have increased every year
◆WEEK (UK), 2022-5-12: Taiwan plans to “throw a thousand tanks at the beachhead” in the event of a Chinese invasion that could result in “brutal tank battles”

◆ United Dialy (Taiwan), 2022-5-19 : Can the guerrillas of Stinger missiles and Javelin missiles really block the Russian main force in Ukraine?

◆ The China Times (Taiwan), 2021-10-26 : Urban guerrilla warfare will turn cities into ruins and cause a large number of civilian casualties。
◆ Foreign Policy, 2020-8-20 : “Their underlying thinking is that PLA has grown to be too strong for us to fight militarily anyway... Taiwan should just focus on putting up a good show of being tough, buy enough U.S. weapons for display, and pray that Americans come to our rescue

◆ Financial Times, 2022-5-17: Washington was right to push Taipei to focus procurement more on the threat of invasion, but that forcing its hand was counterproductive.

◆ New York Times, 2022-5-7: US presses Taiwan to buy missiles and smaller arms for asymmetric warfare (Suited to Win Against China); But some Taiwanese defense officials are resistant.
◆ FoxNews, 2022-5-12: Taiwan may not have military equipment to defend itself against Chinese invasion warns Rep. McCaul
◆ Politico, 2022-5-11: The Biden administration is rebuffing some of Taiwan’s requests for big-ticket weapons,...these expensive items, while fine for peacetime operations, would not survive an all-out assault from the mainland.
◆ Economist, 2022-5-10: expensive conventional equipment such as tanks, battleships and submarines — are hard to hide and easy to strike with a missile — a "porcupine" strategist would focus on agile and concealable weapons
◆ Politico, 2022-5-19: the U.S. effort to reshape Taiwan’s military has taken on new urgency since the Russian invasion...the administration would no longer support arms sales for Taiwan “outside their definition of ‘asymmetric’ defense,”
◆ WSJ , 2022-5-8: F-16s Are the Wrong Way for Taiwan to Defend Itself
◆ National Interest, 2022-5-15: One important task has been to tailor the provision of defensive weapons to the needs of Taiwan’s military—procuring Stingers and Javelins rather than Abrams tanks and Seahawk helicopters.
◆ Foreign Policy , 2020-10-19 : Taiwan's leaders have gravitated toward military showpieces
◆ Diplomat, 10-5-2020: Taiwan needs mobile systems,long-range surveillance armed drones...

What Should The US Do If China Invades Taiwan ? TIPP Poll 2022-3-2 ~ 3-4, 1318 adults, online survey
	come to defense of Taiwan directly via MILITARY action	economic sanctions	combination of military action and economic sanctions	allow China to take Taiwan	not sure
overall	14%	27%	23%	6%	29%
Democrats	15	33	22	6	24
Republicans	16	27	27	n/a	25
Independents	11	22	24	9	34
Conservatives	17	27	28	6	21
Moderates	12	26	19	6	36
Liberals	15%	32%	25%	5%	22%
19fortyfive.com/2022/04/a-chinese-invasion-of-taiwan-what-response-would-americans-support/ TIPP Insights

World Economic Forum, The Global Risks Report 2022 National Risk Perceptions
Economy	Risk 1	Risk 2	Risk 3	Risk 4	Risk 5
Taiwan, Chn.	Infectious diseases	Extreme weather events	Geopolitization of strategic resources	Failure of cybersecurity measures	Asset bubble bursts in large economies
China	Extreme weather event	Asset bubble bursts in large economies	Infectious diseases	Collapse or lack of social security systems	Geopolitization of strategic resources
Hong Kong	Asset bubble bursts in large economies	Prolonged economic stagnation	Infectious diseases	Interstate conflict	Erosion of social cohesion
Japan	Prolonged economic stagnation	Extreme weather events	Interstate conflict	Failure of cybersecurity measures	Asset bubble bursts in large economies Infectious diseases
Korea	Asset bubble bursts in large economies	Employment and livelihood crises … Debt crises in large economies Human-made environmental Infectious damage diseases	n/a	Debt crises in large economies	Human-made environmental Infectious damage
Singapore	Prolonged economic stagnation	Infectious diseases	Asset bubble bursts in large economies	Failure of cybersecurity measures	Climate action failure
www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_The_Global_Risks_Report_2022.pdf


STATISTA: Leading countries in the Travel & Tourism Competitiveness Index (TTCI) Published by Statista Research Department, Feb 4, 2021
Taiwan's travel & tourism - ★ 13th in Asia
Asia Rank	country	score	world Rank
1	Japan	5.4	4
2	Australia	5.1	7
3	China	4.9	13
4	Korea Rep.	4.8	15
5	Hong Kong	4.8	16
6	Singapore	4.8	17
7	New Zealand	4.7	18
8	Malaysia	4.5	25
9	Thailand	4.5	29
10	UAE	4.4	33
11	India	4.4	34
12	Indonesia	4.3	36
13	Taiwan	4.3	37

In world media's eyes, Taiwan is ~

◆ "conduit (tool)" / The LOWY Institute( think tank in Australia ) , 6-16-2020 : treating Taiwan as a conduit to frustrate Beijing imperils Taiwan’s security... and then the United States abandons Taiwan to deal with the consequences.

◆ "meat on chopping blocks" / New York Times , 9-18-2020: Taiwan has become completely dependent on the United States,... Many people are saying that Taiwan has become the meat on others’ chopping blocks”

◆ "human bomb" / Global Times, 9-8-2020: US sets Taiwan up as a 'human bomb' ( drive the little to poke the big )

◆ "food on the menu" / SCMP, 10-7-2020: "If you are not at the table, you are on the menu,” When the great powers sit at the geopolitical table, Taiwan has long been on the menu."

◆ "a dog under control" / Eurasian Times 7-9-2020: The Tsai authority ... turns to Washington and is willing to be used. Taiwan Now Under ‘Deep Control’ Of The US.

◆ "a bargaining chip" / Forbes, 10-5-2020: It would be a mistake for the U.S. to pursue an FTA as part of its China policy or to use Taiwan as a bargaining chip, and Taiwan has reasons to be wary as well.

◆ " a tradable pawn", "a useful chess piece" / Global Times, 8-23-2020: Taiwan is a useful chess piece for the US only because of the US strategy to suppress the Chinese mainland. On the one hand, Washington exploits the Taiwan question to contain China, on the other hand it is inciting tensions and making money by selling arms to Taiwan...Taiwan is a tradable pawn. Taiwan for the US is only a tradable chess piece, but for the mainland, reunification of the mainland and Taiwan is priceless.

◆ "dispensable irritant" / Asia Times, 11-16-2020; Washington Post 1-18-2019: Trump abandoned the Kurds in Syria. Could Taiwan be next ? WP, 7-14-2020: Trump's policies are undermining the security of Taiwan's democracy ...

The People’s Daily, 10-15-2020 , Global Times, 10-15-2020: “Don’t say we didn’t warn you" (「勿謂言之不預」)... ★

http://www.nexttv.com.tw/NextTV/News/Home/LatestNews/2020-10-17/275597.html

Taiwan, Next TV, 壹新聞, 10-17-2020

The People’s Daily《告台灣情治部門書》full text : http://js.people.com.cn/BIG5/n2/2020/1015/c359574-34350271.html

● Economist,10-22-2020: The People’s Daily, (CCP’s mouthpiece《人民日報》), carried a commentary... using a phrase—“Don’t say we didn’t warn you (ps: Taiwan intelligence)” — that has preceded Chinese military action against other countries in the past
● After China's mouthpiece, People's Daily or XinHua editorial issued a severe warning "Don’t say we didn’t warn you" in 1962、1967、1978，Chinese PLA started military operations against Indian and Vietnamese troops respectively.
● The People's Daily in Nov. 2019 sent a warning "Don’t say we didn’t warn you" to Hong Kongers, in the next year China cracked down HK, and passed a national security law on Hong Kong.
● This time the People’s Daily put its warning to Taiwan's intelligence in "opinion" , instead of "editorial" column as before, and on "7th edition" instead of 1st~4th edition as before, ... therefore, it's serious but not as severe as before, probably a warning for coercion or "gray zone" actions such as blockage or economic intervenes, or a pressure expecting Taiwan's giving up ... those sort of psychological war.
● Washington Post (7-22-2020) : In 2019, Xi (Chinese president) offered an ultimatum to Taiwan to come to the table for unification talks or face annexation by force. Soon later PLA's warplanes crossed the Taiwan Strait "median line" ( "the de facto cease-fire line") first time ever since 1949, according to Newsweek 8-12-2020, and the PRC deliberately ratcheted up tensions till now.
● SCMP (Hong Kong), 10-20-2020: ... unusually strong language in a recent commentary in People's Daily invoking the phrase “don’t say we didn’t warn you”, serves as a reminder, which was targeting a big rise in the number of Taiwanese intelligence agents active on the mainland, but was aimed at a much wider audience.

★ ○

Trump takes Taiwan as leverage , one-China policy as bargaining chips

Salmon is poking the bear ? Taiwan suffers in danger !

◆ Bloomberg news 3-14-2018: In the future, Taiwan will suffer even more, as it

gets caught in the middle between a stronger China and a inward-looking US...

◆ The LOWY Institute ( Australia ), The Interpreter, 6-16-2020 : treating Taiwan as a conduit to frustrate Beijing imperils Taiwan’s security.

Independent UK, 7-23-2019: China "ready to go to war" if Taiwan tries to gain independence
( white paper released by the Chinese gov.).

CNN 6-17-2019: mass protests (in Hong Kong) emboldened anti-China elements in Taiwan. Daily Mail (UK)
4-1-2019: Taiwan blasts China for "reckless and provocative" incursion by 2 fighter jets across a largely respected line
dividing the 2 sides in the Taiwan Straits. Japan Times, 4-1-2019: China's move also comes less than a week after
the U.S. sent ships through the strait — the third time in as many months. Reuters 2-25-2019: US Navy ships ... riling China.

◆ New York Times at 4-18-2018: Mr. Trump questioned why the US should be bound by

the One China policy if Beijing will not budge on trade ... The U.S. and Taiwan are seen

as heading in a direction that is getting perilously close to

Chinese red lines...... (Taiwan president Tsai stated)

" Many people say we are pawns of other people ......"

◆ VOAnews, 3-23-2018 : John Bolton (Trump's new National Security Adviser) has long argued

that Washington can play a "Taiwan card" to compel Beijing's attention for its potentially

destabilizing actions in East Asia and the South China Sea.

◆ <Foreign Policy> 12-14-2016 named Taiwan President Tsai as
one of leading thinkers of 2016 for "Poking the bear" .

But, Taiwan is a card, or most likely, a leverage, a bargaining chip
between the US and China, not a card player in the game

◆ In Mar. 2018, Trump signed <Taiwan Travel Act>, which paves way for high-level, official exchanges with Taiwan,

and identifies indirectly (?) Taiwan as a country ― "visits to a country by United States cabinet members ...".

Deutsche Welle 3-17-2018: China has reacted angrily to the bill.
Bloomberg news 3-14-2018: Trump's "Taiwan card" (to annoy China when needed) is China's real worry.

◆ Seattle Times, 12-12-2016: Donald Trump sounds ready to use U.S. policy toward Taiwan
as a bargaining chip to extract concessions from China, / WASHINGTON (AP)
◆ The Washington Post , 12-12-2016: White House: Taiwan is not a 'bargaining chip'

◆ bloomberg, 12-11-2016: China Warns Trump Against Using Taiwan for Leverage

◆ Taiwan Defense Secretary: can resist Chinese army for about 1+ week (CTV 12-18-2016);

●

Horrible Judicial system in Taiwan !
Taiwan presidents should be ashamed ...
　

★ Travel and Tourism Index by country in Asia