Taiwan   
      
  this site's world No. 1 in  2020~24,  2017~19 2016,  2015, 2014, 2013 2010~12      Top  since 1998  

                         


fights for rights

  Jump to:  intro     travel     food     economy     diplomatic     military     human rights     soft power     identity     women    education    medical     personality     judiciary     white terror

 

home  Taiwan  TW  OP  tour  restaurants  night market democracy  love  personality  hospitals  pres.  president  women  speech  privacy  fraud  univ.  internet-army  military  massage  prostitution  judiciary  police  prosecutors  judicial-persecution  corruption  foreign-labor  Taiwan-brief  human-rights  intl-human-rights  death penalty  diplomacy  transportation  avia.  happiness   housing   buffet   food   image  soft power  creativity  culture  wealth  drugs  persecutions  trans-justice   US-cartoons  US-designs  Japan-comics  Chn-creativity  Chn-cartoons-WWII  political-cartoons  cartoon-creativity  mental-control  music  movies  FB  CovID       Is 'cannibalism' legal in a 'cannibal'-led country ?

   Chinese version                               

☉○

        Taiwan

CNN (2024-3-10) : the Economist declared that Taiwan was “the most dangerous place on Earth.”; The world's most dangerous place has only gotten more dangerous. Perhaps the extraordinary and rapid growth of China and the reality of America's dominant status made this inevitable, "destined for war" .  In the past, Communist China believed that it could wait (reunification) because time was on its side. But that premise is proving untrue. This issue will need to be managed rather than solved —All three sides should keep talking ... United States Institute of Peace (2024-3-5) : After Taiwan's election, China is now ratcheting up the pressure. China's efforts to change the status quo with Taiwan could lead to unintentional conflict. Associated Press (2024-3-5):  conquest over the self-governing island democracy of Taiwan, driving Indian forces from their disputed border, and asserting control over islands in the East China and South China Sea all on Beijing's list of priorities. Reuters, 2024-3-5: In the government work report, China reiterated a call for "reunification" with Taiwan, but dropped the descriptor "peaceful", which had been used in previous reports. The change in language is closely watched as a possible sign of more assertive stance towards Taiwan.  China raises defence spending by 7.2% USNI.org, 2024-3-1: Report to Congress on Taiwan Defense and Military Issues / The archipelago's energy, food, water, internet, and other critical infrastructure systems are vulnerable to external disruption.  Civil-military relations are strained...Taiwan's civil defense preparedness is insufficient, and its military struggles to recruit, retain, and train personnel.  it is not clear what costs—in terms of economic security, physical safety and security, and lives—Taiwan's people would be willing or able to bear in the face of possible PRC armed aggression...renewing U.S. debates about how to allocate limited resources to shore up Taiwan's resilience  New York Times, 2024-2-26: The P.L.A.'s now-normalized presence around Taiwan raises the risk of an accidental confrontation. Taiwan's response has been inconsistent and lacks transparency, which may further embolden Beijing...Taipei's approach to sharing information about Chinese activities with the public has not been fully transparent   Financial Times, 2024-2-27: Chinese research ships increase incursions near Taiwan Financial Times, 2024-2-23: In the past, China would only talk about the ‘one-China principle’, but now they have rolled it all into one with the push for unification VOA, 2024-2-23: Taiwan faces tough balancing act as China increases pressure Yahoo News, 2024-2-24: Trump wouldn't say definitively one way or the other whether he would defend Taiwan. DAVID SACKS: and actually blame Taiwan for taking America's semiconductor industry.  So I do think the US presidential election could be a real factor here. CNN, 2024-2-23: Xi takes a page from Putin as he vows to control Taiwan; Xi is expanding China's military at a pace the world has not seen in a century since before World War II.     full text

 

Foreign Affairs, 2024-2-20       foreignaffairs.com/scared-strait  brief

Raymond Kuo, Michael A. Hunzeker, Mark A. Christopher GLASER, WEISS, AND CHRISTENSEN reply
(They) argue that Washington and Taiwan are not doing enough to assure Beijing of their intentions, in the process undermining deterrence in the Taiwan Strait.... providing more assurances will simply embolden Beijing to continue its threatening behavior.  Conditional, credible consequences are now essential to encouraging a less bellicose Chinese policy...when deterrence is needed against a determined and capable rival, assurances that are not reciprocated can quickly become concessions. we did not advocate an “assurance first” strategy that offers “concessions” to appease Beijing... the new military measures we think are needed for deterrence will be less effective if Beijing believes they are aimed at buttressing a unilateral assertion of independence by Taiwan or ... an alliance... China can attack out of fear.  They may believe that Taiwan can safely assert permanent sovereign independence as long as there is sufficient military might in place to dissuade Beijing from attacking. If so, they are hardly alone, but we strongly disagree.

 

Foreign Affairs, 2024-2-16: A war over the island could easily cause a global depression.   A Chinese seizure of Taiwan could trigger a race among nations to develop their own nuclear arsenals as U.S. security guarantees lost credibility DW, 2024-2-16: Elbridge Colby: Taiwan's military preparation has "lagged behind the scale of the threat" despite some incremental progress. "Not really doing anything near what it would need to do to make itself more defensible" borders on "vaguely suicidal behavior"   CSIS.org , 2024-2-13: Specific interests, rather than democratic solidarity,  stability, rather than debates over Taiwan's sovereignty are more likely to drive engagement with Taiwan in most parts of the world  War On The Rocks , 2024-2-12: the military balance of power has shifted decisively, enabling an amphibious invasion from a capabilities standpoint in the not-too-distant future, while prospects of peaceful unification have faded. As such, it is now something of a conventional wisdom that a Chinese invasion has become more likely than not.   Taiwan's armed forces should instead prioritize the acquisition, production, and employment of mines, drones, and missiles. Mines are likely Taiwan's best way to “buy time” with minimal risk   Council on Foreign Relations, 2024-2-8: Differences over Taiwan's status have fueled rising tensions between the island and the mainland.  Through its policy of strategic ambiguity, the US has for decades attempted to maintain a delicate balance between supporting Taiwan and preventing a war with China. But President Joe Biden has seemingly rejected the policy, stating several times that the US would come to Taiwan's defense if China attacked. White House officials have walked back his comments, saying the policy has not changed, but ultimately, the president gets to decide how to respond. TIME , 2024-2-9: In an event of invasion, the first 48 hours are extremely important, because that’s the window within which China will take advantage of its geographic proximity, and it will take some time before the American Navy Indo-Pacific Command can respond to a major contingency,  “That's where the Philippines comes in.” Newsweek, 2024-2-8: US Army special forces as a permanent arrangement train Taiwan troops in Penghu, Kinmen and Taoyuan; the permanent presence of American forces on the island was considered a possible trigger for a cross-strait shooting war Reuters, 2024-2-6: If an attack comes, the Pentagon believes Beijing will want to seize the capital as fast as possible and isolate the island's leadership; Stopping that would require rapid mobilisation -  but more than two million former conscripts receive no ongoing further training    New York Times, 2024-2-5 briefing: China's expanding nuclear arsenal - The weapons could also shape the future of Taiwan — if China gained confidence that it could use their existence to limit Western intervention in any conflict  National Interest, 2024-2-2:  hybrid warfare operations still fit better into China's cost-benefit calculus. China's invasion of Taiwan seems unlikely in the short term. Instead, the military aspects of China's hybrid warfare operations may be more visible in the near future Reuters, 2024-1-31: Taiwan angered at 'unilateral' China change to Taiwan Strait flight path, saying it appeared to be a deliberate attempt to change the status quo for possible military means.     full text

 

   Lowy Institute Asia Power Index, 2023 Edition

  Taiwan China Japan Korea Singapore
Comprehensive Power No.14 15.2 points 2nd 3rd 7th 8th
Economic capability 8th, 13.0 2nd  87.0 3rd   5th 6th
Military Capability 11th, 21.7 2nd   68.1 6th   27.4 5th 9th
Resilience 18th, 24.7 3rd   70.4 11th  10th 14th
Future Resources 12th, 6.5 2nd   72.9 5th 7th 11th
Diplomatic Influence  22th , 19.4 1st    91.5 3rd 6th 10th
Economic Relationships 12th, 11.1 1st   98.3 3rd 5th 4th
Cultural Influence 13th, 12.6 2nd   47.4 3rd 7th 9th
Defense Networks 16th, 11.8 7th    23.7 3rd 4th 5th
Asia's Comprehensive Power rankings:  1.US 2.Chn 3.Japan 4.India 5. Rus 6. Aus 7. S. Korea 8. Singapore 9.Indonesia
10.Thailand  11.Malaysia 12. Vietnam 13. NZ 14. Taiwan (ROC)
power.lowyinstitute.org/countries/taiwan/

 

Wall Street Journal, 2024-1-19: The prospect that Taiwanese voters might never elect a Beijing-friendly government again could tilt China toward harsher methods to seek unification, including military force Washington Post, 2024-1-17:  The Taiwanese people showed they are not interested in becoming a pawn in the U.S.-China competition. Taiwan wants ties with both the US and China New York Times, 2024-1-17: A peaceful solution on Taiwan is slipping away.  Chinese law explicitly states that Beijing may use force if possibilities for peaceful unification are “completely exhausted.”.  Conflict between China and the United States just got a little more likely. New York Times, 2024-1-15: Taiwan's president-elect represents a setback for China Some U.S. officials have warned, China will be increasingly ready to try to seize or subdue Taiwan by force... Lai may have to watch his tendency for occasional off-the-cuff remarks, which Beijing could exploit and turn into crises  full text

 

Lai Ching-te won the presidency with 40 percent of the votes but his ruling DPP lost its majority in parliament. Lai's Biggest Challenge Lies Ahead

media comments
New York Times, 2024-1-13 tensions are likely to rise; Lai Ching-te is an impulsive and politically biased figure, so we cannot rule out the possibility that unpredictable and unknown developments may occur during his tenure”,“I'm afraid it's very dangerous”, 'noting that Mr. Xi's views on Taiwan were clear. That includes his insistence that force can be used if necessary. nytimes.com/2024/01/13/world/asia/china-taiwan-election-result-analysis.html Damien Cave
CNN, 2024-1-13 Beijing has a wide range of coercive measures in its toolbox Analysts say China could escalate economic and military pressure on Taiwan to show its displeasure in the coming days and weeks, or save a more forceful response for May, when Lai takes office  msn.com/en-us/news/world/taiwan-voters-dismiss-china-warnings-and-hand-ruling-party-a-historic-third-consecutive-presidential-win/ar-AA1mUnBb  Eric Cheung, Wayne Chang, Nectar Gan and Jerome Taylor
Washington Post, 2024-1-13 China's military pressure campaign has fueled concerns of miscalculation that could spark conflict and draw in the United States. Analysts are watching closely to see if Beijing responds to Lai's victory with large-scale drills that could send tensions spiraling washingtonpost.com/world/2024/01/13/taiwan-president-lai-ching-te/  Christian Shepherd  Vic Chiang
XinHua (China), 2024-1-13 China:  the results reveal that the Democratic Progressive Party cannot represent the mainstream public opinion on the island...the elections will not change the basic landscape and development trend of cross-Strait relations, will not alter the shared aspiration of compatriots across the Taiwan Strait to forge closer ties, and will not impede the inevitable trend of China's reunification.   english.news.cn/20240113/a669c1402683472ca4e420ca94fcd8df/c.html
Independent, 2024-1-14 Taiwan's new president Lai Ching-te issues defiant message to China after historic election win...The DPP is often criticised for only focusing on efforts to counter the threat from China while having no solutions for social and economic problems that have been troubling the Taiwanese people news.yahoo.com/taiwan-president-lai-ching-te-184055493.html
Euro News, 2024-1-13 China: Beijing wouldn't accept the election result as representing “the mainstream public opinion on the island,” without giving any evidence or justification.
TIME, 2024-1-13 ...those disaffected by the ruling DPP vote and wanting a less confrontational approach to cross-strait relations, certainly exists. The final result proved this, with over half the electorate voting for the alternatives to the DPP. But a majority for an approach or idea that doesn't translate into majority support for a party cuts no ice. msn.com/en-us/news/world/lai-ching-te-won-taiwans-presidency-but-his-biggest-challenge-lies-ahead/ar-AA1mV0Au   Kerry Brown
NHK (Japan), 2024-1-14 China noted that the results of the Saturday election reveal that the Democratic Progressive Party cannot represent the mainstream public opinion of Taiwan.
USA Today, 2024-1-13 The outcome of the vote will ultimately determine the nature of ties with China relative to the West and will have strong bearing on the state of play in the South China Sea
BBC, 2024-1-13 Taiwanese voters have chosen William Lai as their president in a historic election, cementing a path that is increasingly divergent from China.  bbc.com/news/world-asia-67920532  Tessa Wong
The Hill, 2024-1-13 Taiwan elects ruling party candidate Lai Ching-te as president in high-stakes race  Lauren Irwin news.yahoo.com/taiwan-elects-ruling-party-candidate-131754245.html
Reuters, 2024-1-13 US does not support Taiwan independence, Biden says
WSJ, 2024-1-13 Taiwan voters defy Beijing in electing new president
Vox, 2024-1-13 there is expectation among some China experts that China's response will be “assertive”...  it's likely to happen in the coming weeks or months, not in the next few days.“We're going to see a reaction from China; the question is, when and how,”'“Whereas five, 10, 15 years ago, it was fairly predictable — the kinds of things that Beijing would do. But I think it's increasingly difficult to predict what is going to happen and when it's likely to happen

 msn.com/en-us/news/world/in-taiwan-s-high-stakes-elections-china-is-the-loser/ar-AA1mVl3g  Ellen Ioanes

 

Washington Post, 2024-1-10:  increasingly frequent warnings from China's strongman leader Xi Jinping that Beijing's rule here is “inevitable” — raising the prospect of a conflict that could draw in the United States New York Times, 2024-1-9: Chinese officials have framed the race (presidential election) as a choice between peace and war. A warning from Taiwan about a satellite, erroneously called a missile in English, raised concerns about Chinese harassment days before an election.   Wall Street Journal , 2024-1-9:  The problem is that Beijing can't tolerate Taiwan's example of a thriving Chinese-speaking democracy in which voters settle political differences at the ballot box. If a conflict breaks out in the Taiwan Strait, this will be why. BBC, 2024-1-9: Today, the DPP no longer talks about the need for formal independence and the KMT speaks of dialogue with Beijing, but sidesteps the subject of unification, or whether Taiwan is part of China. Both are now embracing Taiwan's peculiar "status quo"- it elects its own leaders, but it is not considered a country Economist, 2024-1-8: victory for the DPP is far from certain. The party once appealed to young voters, but after eight years in power it has a stuffy image. Wage growth has fallen behind inflation and house prices are high... fears of an energy-price crunch. Most importantly, it has become clear that China will not have formal contact with DPP governments Fox News, 2024-1-6: The potential winner could further cement moves toward what could be called ‘de jure Taiwan independence.’ This will significantly increase the possibility of a war between the two sides; a war in which the U.S. will almost certainly be involved in Washington Post, 2024-1-5: With wars in Europe and the Middle East, U.S. power is stretched dangerously, historically thin. The temporary reduction in cross-strait tensions that would accompany a KMT victory could give Washington a window — if politicians are willing to seize it — to put the U.S. military deterrent on a firmer footing Foreign Affairs, 2024-1-5: a growing chorus of voices argue that continued support to Ukraine is detracting from the real threat—namely, a Chinese invasion of Taiwan; Prematurely abandoning Ukraine to preserve resources for Taiwan could embolden other adversaries. It might, for example, signal to Iran and North Korea...  The Guardian, 2024-1-5: The next president of Taiwan is likely to shape events less through proactive measures than his response to circumstances he cannot dictate: a crisis such as a military manoeuvre gone wrong, or more broadly, China’s internal politics Atlantic Council, 2024-1-3: Beijing's direct economic-electoral linkage ahead of the election may end up being a double-edged sword. If the purpose is to influence the election's outcome, then it could backfire Reuters, 2024-1-3: 'Hawkish' China military squeeze on Taiwan likely after election. If the DPP wins the presidency but loses its majority in parliament, that could also temper China's response given it would weaken the DPP's ability to pass legislation Fortune, 2024-1-2: opposition blame China tensions for pushing the chipmaker TSMC to invest overseas Wall Street Journal, 2023-12-29: Taiwanese politics has shifted decisively, and perhaps irrevocably, away from China. In Taipei, Lai paints a picture of a Taiwanese public far less preoccupied with Beijing’s designs than political leaders in the Western world. The KMT accused the DPP of underplaying the deterioration of cross-strait ties and the risk of war CNN, 2023-12-29: Beijing has long used its massive coast guard as a force to project power, some analysts believe that China could soon start to deploy the coast guard to ratchet up the pressure on Taiwan NBC, 2023-12-26: Xi's private warning  on reunifying Taiwan to Biden was delivered at a time when China's behavior toward Taiwan is seen as increasingly aggressive and ahead of a potentially pivotal    presidential  election in the self-governing democratic island next month. Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C. said: First, create a robust defense supplemental for Taiwan and second, draft pre-invasion sanctions from hell to impose on China if they take action to seize Taiwan. New York Post, 2023-12-26: Xi Jinping says China's ‘complete reunification’ with Taiwan will ‘surely’ happen    full text

 

New York Post, 2023-12-21: China's Xi Jinping warned Joe bluntly that Beijing will take Taiwan... It represents a clear escalation on China's part, moving from its longtime claim of ownership to notification of intent to take possession. Council on Foreign Relations, 2023-12-20: China distrusts Lai far more than Tsai.  China is all but certain to greet a Lai victory with intensified military, economic, and political pressure. Brookings Institution, 2023-12-18: although China would respond to a Taiwan declaration of independence with a military campaign, Beijing knows that this would be quite risky, in part because the PLA is not ready to undertake such a complicated campaign; a wide-ranging campaign of coercion that includes displays of military force but a variety of non-military pressure and intimidation, a low-risk approach, targets the confidence of the people of Taiwan, and there are signs that it is gradually working.  Economist, 2023-12-13:  There is an argument from the us that although Taiwan is a key security interest for the US, it should stop saying that. Because that's going to provoke China, and the US should say it's up to the people of Taiwan and China to decide their future.  Taiwan's vice pres. candidate: Taiwan is a security interest primarily for the people of Taiwan. But Taiwan is also a security interest for the world.   Reporters Without Borders (RSF) , 2023-12-13: Taiwan is a country that suffers from one of the lowest trust rates in the media among democracies (28%) and where the media community is often criticised for disregarding journalism ethics... journalists suffer from a very polarised media environment dominated by sensationalism and the pursuit of profit at the expense of quality news reporting. The Conversation, 2023-12-11: While Taiwanese people are concerned about potential conflict - one poll finds more than 80% of Taiwanese people believe the China threat is worsening – prospects for peace and stability are also affecting the island’s international business and investment outlook. The Diplomat, 2023-12-11: Taiwan's election is not a turning point for US policy -  but- Continuity in U.S. support for Taiwan and hardening against China will face an inflection point if Biden is replaced by Donald Trump or some other candidate with strong “America First” leanings in the November 2024 elections  The Guardian, 2023-12-9: Cracks are appearing in China's monolithic regime – and its leader might decide a military adventure will strengthen his grip on power Fortune, 2023-12-5: After Israel and Ukraine, Taiwan business leaders fear Taipei-Beijing tensions may trigger the next geopolitical conflict...the Republican-led House approved money only for Israel in November, defying Biden's request for spending for all three allies (Ukraine, Taiwan). New York Times, 2023-12-4: Taiwan's presidential election candidates have focused on who can best handle the island's volatile relationship with China. But many voters, especially those in their 20s and 30s, say they are weary of geopolitics and yearn for a campaign more focused on their concerns, like rising housing costs, slow income growth and narrowing career prospects... could be a crucial factor in deciding the presidential election  Foreign Affairs, 2023-11-30: as the United States works with Taiwan to strengthen its security, it must avoid giving the impression that it is moving toward restoring formal diplomatic relations or a defense alliance with the island. Combined with a conditional and credible threat of a military response by the United States and Taiwan to the use of force, such assurances will help prevent a war.    full text

 

western media  Taiwan's presidential election -  could reignite U.S.-China tensions
Washington Post, 2023-11-28 Beijing calls the race a “choice between war and peace” and it has escalated an intimidation campaign around the island democracy, taking Chinese military aggression in the Taiwan Strait to heights unseen in decades... a vote that could reignite U.S.-China tensions if Beijing takes the results badly.   brief
Washington Post, 2023-11-28 Our policy, therefore, has to be not truculence and deterrence but to make sure that push does not come to shove. That means ... scrupulously avoiding support for Vice President Lai Ching-te.  brief
CNBC, 2023-11-27 Chinese government has framed this elections as a choice between “peace and war, prosperity and decline.”  The outcome of Taiwan’s elections will likely go some way in influencing testy U.S.-China ties and impact security in the Asia-Pacific region more broadly.  brief
Bloomberg, 2023-11-26 an unprecedented third straight term in power for the DPP is by no means a foregone conclusion. After almost eight years in power, there's growing unhappiness with the party and a desire for change, especially among younger voters. brief
Reuters, 2023-11-28 China repeated its attacks on Lai and Hsiao "distorted facts and downplayed the harmfulness and danger of 'Taiwan independence' separatist activities to deceive voters in the 2024 leadership election in Taiwan"  brief
SCMP, 2023-11-29 Taiwan poll: DPP senses win with Lai-Hsiao ticket but Beijing might see 'war'

 

  New York Times, 2023-11-26: Taiwan, a highly online society, has repeatedly been found to be the top target in the world for disinformation from foreign governments.  RAND: China's disinformation work has had “measurable effects”Critics denounced the government's anti-disinformation campaign as a political witch hunt, Taiwan's media ecosystem, with its diverse political leanings, often produces pro-Beijing content that can be misattributed to Chinese manipulation.       full text

 

Taiwan's economy - compared with Asian countries

Hong Kong

Taiwan

Median wealth per adult (Credit Suisse, Research Institute, 2023 ) US$ 202,410 (world No.3) US$ 108,250
Mean wealth per adult (Credit Suisse, Research Institute, 2023 ) US$ 551,190 US$ 273,790
The average salary (Morgan McKinley, Business Insider, 2023) HK$ 36,583 (about TWD147,204) TWD 48,032 (plus overtime etc TWD 57,045) - storm.mg/lifestyle/4851897
Median salary (UDN, 2023-12-14) about TWD 84,000 about TWD 43,000
Market Capitalization  (UDN, 2023-12-14) more than double of Taiwan's about USD 1.7 trillion
At the end of 2022, Taiwan's per capita GDP amounted to $32,756 while Singapore's was $82,808, Japan and South Korea were at $33,815 and $32,255, respectively, according to the World Bank.

 

western media  Taiwan presidential election -  opposition alliance collapse
New York Times, 2023-11-24 even experienced observers baffled as to why the opposition parties would stage such a public rupture over who would be the presidential candidate on a unity ticket... , It really defies theories of coalition building.  Lai's party asserts Taiwan's distinctive identity and claims to nationhood, and has become closer to the United States.  China could respond by escalating menacing military activities around Taiwan, which sits roughly 100 miles off the Chinese coast.   brief
Economist, 2023-11-24 polls suggest the flurry of chaotic opposition negotiating has modestly bolstered both Mr Hou and Mr Ko. After eight years in power, the dpp is struggling especially with younger voters, who are suffering from high housing costs and low wages. Some also worry about a possible war with China.  brief
Bloomberg, 2023-11-24 There is zero chance that the unhappy trajectory in cross-strait relations gets reversed if Lai winsIt will certainly lead to a continuation and probable escalation of pressures and threats...will impact the nature of the US’s already tense ties with China.   brief
BBC, 2023-11-24 Mr Lai is not much of a campaigner. His poll ratings have gradually sunk, from over 40% in the summer to barely touching 30% now.   brief
VOA, 2023-11-24 analysts say will be a referendum on China relations. Beijing said Lai attempted to hide that he is a “pursuer of Taiwan independence” and an “instigator of war.” brief
Washington Post, 2023-11-24 Lai's advantage is largely thanks to disarray in the opposition camp. He has consistently polled around or just above 30 percent.     A win is not guaranteed. Public grievances against the ruling party have bubbled up during Tsai’s presidency, which has been hit by corruption scandals and grumbling from Taiwanese businesses about lost trade with China;  Lev Nachman:This election is becoming about who voters think is the safest choice for Taiwan。” brief
Reuters, 2023-11-24 China ties on the line as Taiwan opposition splits in dramatic feud,    potentially easing the way for the ruling party, which has defied Beijing's pressure, to stay in power.
TIME, 2023-11-24 collapse of the alliance is likely to consolidate both the KMT’s and the TPP's vote base on the one hand, as intensified conflicts usually can promote vote base consolidation and unity,  wing voters who have no stable identification with either party will be less likely to vote for [either of] them.”
Wall Street Journal, 2023-11-24 China isn’t backing off TaiwanThe U.S. will wish it had deterred the crisis when faced with these grim choices; Far better to avoid this conflict than to fight it in any form.

 

   Washington Post, 2023-11-21: Xi Jinping is sending ominous signals on Taiwan / on the most important issue in the relationship — Taiwan — Washington and Beijing are moving further apart. Xi's rhetoric indicates he's getting impatient with the status quo — and his actions are even more worrisome.   FoxNews, 2023-11-16: Xi underscored that this (Taiwan) was the biggest, most potentially dangerous issue in U.S.-China relations Biden again calls Xi a 'DICTATOR' as china vows to be 'UNSTOPPABLE' in retaking Taiwan   The Hill, 2023-11-16: Biden, Xi reset relationship but without a ‘breakthrough’   New Yorker, 2023-11-14: The war in Gaza, along with ongoing U.S. support of Ukraine, has prompted concern in some quarters that Taiwan could be left dangerously vulnerable   Washington Post, 2023-11-13: the United States’ Indo-Pacific Command now considers it harder to distinguish between Chinese military coercion and the full-scale mobilization that would presage an invasion...However, China probably remains years away from being capable of using civilian ships to support a successful cross-strait invasion   Economist, 2023-11-13: If William Lai, the DPP's candidate, wins in January, China may respond with a similar show of force or go further, enforcing a longer blockade, interfering with Taiwan's internet or creating more crises in the Taiwan Strait      full text

 

media Biden-Xi meeting
USA Today, 2023-11-15 Biden and Xi spar over Taiwan, Xi said there are no plans for military action, but stressed the need for an eventual resolution
Foreign Policy, 2023-11-15 Taiwan’s Room to Maneuver Shrinks as Biden and Xi Meet; As the latest crisis in the Taiwan straits wraps up, Taipei is on the back foot.
France 24, 2023-11-15 Taiwan set to dominate talks as Xi meets Bidenfrom Beijing's perspective, the most important issue in the US-China relationship will be over Taiwan
New York Times, 2023-11-16 The two nations have spiraled into their worst relationship in four decades, and Biden’s primary goal was simple: Find a way to keep an increasingly bitter competition with China from tipping into conflict

 

 

  Bloomberg, 2023-11-10: The US's top general said he doubts Beijing plans to try to take Taiwan militarily   BBC, 2023-11-9:Beijing's espionage strategy has intensified and expanded beyond elite military circles. Taiwan did not have a robust system for restricting access to classified information until recently.   Economist, 2023-11-6: Invading Taiwan would be a logistical minefield for China; despite huge advances in many areas, it still does not have the troops, equipment, experience, command structures or logistics necessary to be confident of victory in a war over Taiwan.   BBC, 2023-11-6:  in a conflict with China, Taiwan's navy and air force would be wiped out in the first 96 hours of battle. Under intense pressure from Washington, Taipei is switching to a "fortress Taiwan" strategy - The focus will switch to ground troops, infantry and artillery  -  Taiwan still cannot hope to deter China by itself. This is the other lesson from the war in Ukraine. There is now fierce debate in Washington about how far the US should go in supporting Taiwan   Economist, 2023-10-31: Taiwan's chips give the world an economic reason to protect the island from a Chinese invasion. But now America and China are competing to control the supply of these sophisticated chips. And that puts Taiwan in the middle of the two superpowers   Washington Post, 2023-10-31: China's bellicosity against Taiwan has ratcheted up. China now regularly makes military feints at Taiwan with naval and aerial incursions.   New York Times, 2023-10-29: Xi may decide to strike if he begins to feel that Taiwan is slipping further from his grasp, especially if the United States continues to bolster Taiwan's military and its own forces in the region. Taiwan must accelerate its shift toward investing in defense capabilities    Economist, 2023-10-26: In 2019 Xi Jinping, China's president, gave a speech linking the 1992 consensus with the mainland's one-China principle and proposed a “one country, two systems” formula for incorporating Taiwan. That speech “set the tone” for a more assertive Chinese policy on Taiwan   Nikkei Asian Review, 2023-10-27: Taiwan still invests in conventional weapons at the expense of asymmetric capabilities, and it's "not clear whether the government has embraced asymmetric warfighting concepts   New York Times, 2023-10-21: Why we should fear China more than Middle Eastern war ? Only China is an arguable peer of the United States, only China's technological and industrial might can hope to match our own, and only China has the capacity to project power globally as well as regionally.   Newsweek, 2023-10-20: Pentagon Lists Six Possible Causes of China-Taiwan War: 1.  Formal Declaration of Independence 2. Undefined Moves Toward Taiwan Independence 3. "internal unrest" in Taiwan 4. Acquisition of Nuclear Weapons 5. Indefinitely Delayed Cross-Strait Dialogue on Unification 6. Foreign Military Intervention in Taiwan's Internal Affairs    full text

 

  New York Times, 2023-10-16: Beijing is far less concerned with U.S. efforts to enhance its military posture in the region — the deterrence side of the equation — than with the political rhetoric, which is seen in China as proof ... supporting Taiwan's de facto independence.    Newsweek,  2023-10-12: Since war broke out in the Mideast, some with hawkish views in the U.S. have suggested that Taiwan needs to take its self-defense seriously   VOA News,  2023-10-13: some Taiwanese citizens worry China could see an opportunity to attack Taiwan if Washington were to be dragged into the conflict in the Middle East. Lev Nachman said a Chinese attack on Taiwan in the coming days is unlikely.    BBC, 2023-10-5: Most analysts agree that Taiwan's military - a shrunken army, outnumbered navy and old artillery - would be no match against a far more powerful China.  Washington Examiner, 2023-10-5: Were Taipei truly serious about deterring and defeating a PLA attack, it would be spending closer to 10% of its GDP on defense    full text

 

  Washington Post, 2023-9-28: Taiwan launches the island's first domestically made submarine for testing

 CNN, 2023-9-28: President Tsai Ing-wen hailed this as a significant milestone. “The submarine is an important realization of our concrete commitment in defending our country”.

 

 Newsweek, 2023-9-29: Taiwan's former military leader who heads the submarine program said that the slated eight Hai Kun-class boats would bolster the country's defenses to the point that "I don't think we will lose a war.".


♦ BBC, 2023-9-28: National University of Singapore Drew Thompson:  the "centre of gravity" for any China-Taiwan naval conflict would not likely be in the deep waters off the island's east coast, where submarines would be most effective in...Instead, the main theatre of war would be in the shallower waters of the west coast facing mainland China... The submarine is not optimised for a counter invasion role...
NewsWeek, 2023-9-29:  A senior researcher at RAND: The relatively shallow, choppy waters of the Taiwan Strait were well-suited for masking submarines but also harder to operate in.  Policy experts in the U.S.  have urged Taipei to adopt an asymmetric defense strategy based on "lots of small, deadly things—anti-ship missiles, anti-air missiles, etc.—that would make Taiwan a porcupine." Such an approach would become more useful, and submarines less so
The Diplomat, 2023-9-30:  The ODC ( typically utilizes large numbers of cheaper, smaller, shorter-range, and more survivable weapons systems.) appears to have fallen out of favor as a result of institutional opposition, even though the United States has sought to pressure the government to focus on less gold-plated procurement projects.
 

 

   The Daily Caller, 2023-9-24: China is on the fast track to wage war against Taiwan — and the US, experts say.  China has been preparing for the possibility of fighting the U.S. over Taiwan going back to around 1996 or 1997 after realizing Washington intended to preserve the status quo of Taiwan's semi-autonomy, experts explained.    19FortyFive, 2023-9-20: China's military is preparing to invade Taiwan (And quite soon) China's military has developed advanced methods for depriving the Americans of their vaunted advantage in space, threatening the US in the cyber domain, and possibly disrupting the electromagnetic (EM) spectrum to sabotage American forces    Chicago Tribune, AP, VOA News, 2023-9-2: Taiwan's government is racing to counter China, but many on the island say they don't feel the threat. That may be partly due to the nuanced views many Taiwanese hold of China.  Many say they are attracted to their much larger neighbor’s dynamic economy, and its shared language and culture. Others are simply numb to hearing about the threat in their backyard.  full text

 

Council on Foreign Relations, 2023-8-30:  Taiwan Announced a Record Defense Budget: But most important, the proposed budget still falls far short of what the island should be investing in defense. Ironically, the smallest growth in Taiwan’s defense budget in half a decade is coming at a time when defense spending should be accelerating to confront the growing threat that Taiwan faces. In practice, Taiwan needs procuring more anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles, investing in rapid mining capabilities, developing drones and unmanned underwater vehicles, expanding domestic defense industrial capacity, and hardening critical infrastructure. Washington Post, 2023-8-28 : Taiwanese voters could either fuel or dampen the mounting tensions. Their choice is between a ruling party determined to maintain Taiwan's political independence, and an opposition that sees closer ties with China as the only viable path.    Atlantic Council, 2023-8-23:  full-fledged invasion of the island would be difficult. But there are other scenarios, such as a blockade, that would paralyze life on the island and make a Chinese invasion a lot easier. In the event of a PRC invasion of the island, the West will come to Taiwan's aid, with the United States taking the lead, but the most important part should be done by the Taiwanese. We can’t be more Taiwanese than they are themselves.    full text

 

US Congress CRS Report, 2023-8-24  - Taiwan: Defense and Military Issues
crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF12481

 Civil military relations are strained for historical, political, and bureaucratic reasons. The archipelago’s energy, food, water, internet, and other critical infrastructure systems are vulnerable to external disruption. Civil defense preparedness is insufficient, ... Taiwan's military struggles to recruit, retain, and train personnel. It is not clear what costs—in terms of economic security, well-being, safety and security, and lives—Taiwan's people would be willing or able to bear ...
persistent, low-level, non-combat operations that analysts say are eroding Taiwan's military advantages and readiness... unmanned combat aerial vehicle flights near and encircling Taiwan, and reported flights of unmanned aerial vehicles in the airspace of Kinmen...The normalization of PLA operations ever closer to Taiwan's main island in peacetime could undermine “routine” operations or exercises to obscure preparations for an attack.  If the PLA were to use such operations as cover for an imminent attack, it could significantly shorten the time Taiwan would have to respond
many observers argue that Taiwan's military is insufficiently equipped to defeat a possible PRC armed attack.  observers have raised concerns about impediments to the timely delivery of U.S. defense items to Taiwan.


News brief:   Bloomberg, 2023-8-14:  Taiwan's Election Is All About War...  it's concerning that the opposition may not be able to coalesce behind one candidate. That's an election Lai (DPP Lai Ching-te) can win. New York Times, 2023-8-11: large-scale missile attacks or saturation attacks would likely overwhelm Taiwan's air defense systems A real fighting on the ground at the airport and using infantry forces imply that Taiwan had already lost the war in the air. "By the time , it will be, more or less, over"    European Council on Foreign Relations,2023-8-8:  the structures within the leadership are antiquated. The island state urgently needs modern civilian oversight of its military.   New York Times, 2023-8-8: In the political debate, Taiwanese nationalists often emphasize the existence of the Indigenous groups as evidence that Taiwan has its unique origins, of which the Chinese culture is only a part... Even though the Indigenous groups make up only 2 percent of Taiwan's population, they’re an important part in the narrative of Taiwanese nationhood. New York Times, 2023-8-8:  the P.L.A. Rocket Force (which manages conventional and nuclear missiles ) being central to future conflicts  — is under a shadow.  This unexplained shake-up suggests suspicions of graft or other misconduct  JustSecurity.org, 2023-8-7: A recent Council on Foreign Relations task force report  about "U.S.-Taiwan Relations in a New Era" warns that "deterrence is steadily eroding in the Taiwan Strait and is at risk of failing, increasing the likelihood of Chinese aggression."    New York Times, 2023-8-4: TSMC's chairman rejected the idea of the "silicon shield",“China will not invade Taiwan because of semiconductors. China will  not  not  invade Taiwan because of semiconductors”Mr. Liu said, "It is really up to the U.S. and China: How do they maintain the status quo, which both sides want?"    The WEEK UK, 2023-8-1: report by the RAND Corporation stated that the island nation does not spend enough on defence, and what it does goes on “antiquated systems".   Economist, 2023-7-28: Joe Biden believes donating weapons to Taiwan will help forestall a war across the Taiwan Strait. The military move may instead provoke a new crisis.   Wall Street Journal, 2023-7-28: Taiwan amps up Chinese-Invasion drills to deliver a message - War could happen.     Kyodo News (Japan), 2023-7-28: The military balance between China and Taiwan is "rapidly tilting to China's favor" , and "the gap appears to be growing year by year."  , Japan' said in its 2023 white paper      full text

 

#MeToo in Taiwan

New York Times, 2023-7-27 our society remains patriarchal and hierarchical. Under Confucian values, women obey their fathers and their brothers and eventually their husbands. People are expected to respect and yield to their elders and superiors — in short, the powers that be... In a collectivist culture like ours, the burden of being nice and preserving group harmony falls on those with less power and authority nytimes.com/2023/07/27/opinion/taiwan-women-metoo.html 
Reuters, 2023-7-28 Despite Taiwan's reputation as a progressive bastion in a conservative region - the first place in Asia to legalise same-sex marriage...to confront a problem long shrouded in shame and silence.   victims of abuse often stay silent due to what experts say is a tradition of victim-blaming, cultural pressure, and unequal power relationships.   .reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/years-after-metoo-first-swept-world-taiwan-races-respond-2023-07-28/   Sarah Wu   
New York Times, 2023-6-25  torrent of sexual harassment accusations has prompted questions about the state of women's rights on an island democracy ... entrenched sexism that leaves women vulnerable at work, and a culture that is quick to blame victims and cover up accusations against powerful men.  nytimes.com/2023/06/25/world/asia/taiwan-harassment-metoo.html

 

Fox News, 2023-7-28  
The coming China war over Taiwan - The US should fight alongside allies, not in their place

a critical question – is Taiwan committed to its own defense? There are multiple indications that the answer is no.
perhaps most alarmingly, some Taiwanese youth, it turns out, are reluctant to die for their country.Research in 2018: Large numbers of young Taiwanese were "apathetic toward the military and averse to service." 
Biden must show leadership now, before it’s too late, and force Taiwan to participate much more in its own defense...
foxnews.com/opinion/coming-china-war-over-taiwan-needs-american-leadership-before-too-late   Rebekah Koffler

 

BBC, 2023-7-27:  many of Taiwan's conscript soldiers remain woefully under trained, and its weapons systems and military doctrine old and out of date. Financial Times, 2023-7-26:  Annual Han Kuang drills - “The progress is very slow, in fact too slow considering the threat we are facing,” said a Taiwanese military scholar ◆ Financial Times, 2023-7-24:  so-called salami-slicing tactics that Beijing is employing right now are slowly changing the status quo, and could eventually deprive Taiwan of the ability to defend itself.  Some defence experts therefore believe that the US military's strategy for deterring China is misdirected because it is focused too much on an outright invasion, rather than these pressure tactics. VOAnews, 2023-7-22: Taiwan VP's US transit to test already tense China-US ties. "Beijing distrusts Lai even more than they distrust Tsai Ing-wen," said Bonnie Glaser      full text

 

  Wall Street Journal, 2023-7-15:  Simulations by the CSIS found the U.S. could likely block a Chinese takeover of Taiwan with the support of allies such as Japan and Australia.  But Keio University prof. said he think 90% of Japanese people would say 'no' at this point to the question of 'whether you are willing to risk your life to defend Taiwan'    National Review, 2023-7-15: the Chinese military is advantaged if a Taiwan invasion is viewed as a local, limited conflict... Janet YellenIf reelected, president Biden may prefer not to fight for Taiwan.    Lowy Institute, 2023-7-17:  the RAND assessed that just two US allies in the Indo-Pacific – Australia and Japan – could be expected to help the United States. Moreover, this would likely just lie in the realm of “limited support”... similar to that which the United States and its allies imposed on Russia for its invasion of Ukraine    National Interest, 2023-7-15:  With the intensification of competition between China and the United States and the gradual deterioration of China's international situation, it is increasingly preferable for China to unify Taiwan earlier rather than later...  it is likely that Beijing will act early against Taiwan... extension of the compulsory conscription program received backlash from younger Taiwanese. U.S. deterrence strategy without sufficient Taiwanese military capability and determination of Taiwanese people would lose its solid foundation  Council on Foreign Relations, 2023-7-7: Taiwan's dominance of semiconductor production ... is unlikely to act as a “silicon shield"   ◆  Wall Street Journal, 2023-7-5:  Taiwan is far from ready, the professionalism and motivation of Taiwan's military are a particular concern ◆  Council on Foreign Relations, June 2023:  If China were to annex Taiwan and base military assets, such as underwater surveillance devices, submarines, and air defense units on the island, however, it would be able to limit the U.S. military's operations in the region and in turn its ability to defend its Asian allies. ... it is at stake ... the ability to preserve U.S. access and influence throughout the Western Pacific    Foreign Affairs, 2023-6-15: The Chinese military is now moving in an even more dangerous direction.  For too long, Taipei focused on the combat capabilities of its active-duty force of less than 200,000 soldiers while neglecting to prepare its 23 million civilians to resist Chinese aggression. Taiwan remains extremely vulnerable. It relies on imported energy, food supplies, and medical equipment, ...    CSIS, 2023-6-15: Given the stakes, it is perhaps natural that U.S. officials and lawmakers are becoming more vocal about Taiwan's future. While these statements are likely motivated by a sincere concern over U.S. interests, they not only weaken the United States' long-term influence over events in the Taiwan Strait    National Interest, 2023-6-15:  If China launches an invasion without first destroying America's military assets in the region, its ships will be left vulnerable to attack. However, if it launches a preemptive strike on U.S. forces, especially on American soil in Guam, it will experience the full wrath of a vengeful United States   L.A. Times, 2023-6-13:  Taiwan's relationship with China is one of the most contentious and defining issues that presidential candidates will have to grapple with in the January election. While the majority of Taiwanese support preserving the status quo, politicians are deeply divided on how to do so as tensions worsen, even within their own parties.  Economist, 2023-5-31:  Taiwan's would-be presidents all promise a way to peace. Sadly, it is not entirely within their power. The next president will take office with the island at the centre of a bubbling superpower showdown   full text

 

National Interest, 2023-6-20  nationalinterest.org/feature/are-taiwanese-confident-americans-will-defend-them-206566
“How confident are you that the U.S. would defend Taiwan if China were to start a war against Taiwan?”a web survey (implemented by Macromill Embrain)

  overall DPP KMT TPP
not at all confident 26.61% 3.23% 55.63% 32.12%
not very confident 37.92 23.12 29.38 48.91
fairly 27.96 48.92 12.50 16.79
very confident 7.51 24.73 2.50 2.19

 

#MeToo  in Taiwan

 CNN, 2023-6-10 The fallout from the #MeToo revelations risks adding more uncertainty to the all-important presidential race. Taiwan, priding itself on gender equality, is facing its own reckoning over sexual harassment.   Most sexual harassment victims were told to "let it go" ... Such culture of self-sacrifice is deep rooted in Taiwan's political reality, where the "big picture" often comes above everything else.  Only when it happens across society – including in more conservative circles,  will it be the real #MeToo moment.  edition.cnn.com/2023/06/10/asia/taiwan-metoo-netflix-wave-makers-intl-hnk/index.html
 The Guardian, 2023-6-8 The belated #MeToo reckoning has exposed the deeply patriarchal norms that still govern Taiwanese society. while these accusations had played out in the court of public opinion, in formal legal proceedings they were unlikely to succeed.   theguardian.com/world/2023/jun/08/taiwan-ruling-party-rocked-sexual-harassment-claims-metoo AmyHawk
Washington Post, 2023-6-7  The #MeToo accusations have caused the DPP's favorability ratings to plummet just as Taiwan gears up for a tough election campaign. The ruling party risks losing to the nationalist Kuomintang.  people across Taiwan have now come forward with experiences of harassment by university professors, doctors, directors and baseball umpires. But the government has until now been slow to respond to reported cases of sexual harassment. msn.com/en-us/news/world/hit-netflix-show-sparks-a-wave-of-metoo-allegations-in-taiwan/ar-AA1cefPH    Vic Chiang, Meaghan Tobin 
Wall Street Journal, 2023-6-7 Sexual misconduct allegations roil Taiwan's U.S.-friendly ruling party wsj.com/articles/sexual-misconduct-allegations-roil-taiwans-u-s-friendly-ruling-party-5b0d8894 Joyu Wang  Wenxin Fan
  SCMP, 2023-6-11 NTU prof.  Tso Chen-dong: the DPP has greatly disappointed the public as ... referring to the party's pledges to promote gender equality and human rights.  DPP had long focused on LGBTQ equality, rather than women's rights. scmp.com/news/china/politics/article/3223609/wave-metoo-cases-threatens-engulf-taiwans-ruling-democratic-progressive-party   Lawance Chung

 

 Washington Post, 2023-5-31:  Why are tensions so high?  China increasingly sees the US as abrogating its “One China policy,” which has been the basis of relations since 1979.   IG Financial Times, 2023-5-31: Fearing a potential conflict in Asia, western companies are looking to move production out of Taiwan. But turning away from the self-ruled island will come at a high price for manufacturers New York Times, 2023-5-30: Taiwan ambassador says Ukraine's success against Russia will deter any consideration or miscalculation that an invasion can be conducted unpunished, without costs, in a rapid way The Christian Science Monitor, 2023-5-30: Taiwan's rep. in US: Taiwan is preparing to defend itself, and not just rely on other democracies to save the day. The challenges that the US is experiencing in the defense supply chain have certainly had an impact on Taiwan. Reuters, 2023-5-27:  Failure to back Ukraine would send signal to China about taking Taiwan, Sen. Graham says  Washington Post, 2023-5-29:  Choosing Taiwan over Ukraine is frighteningly misguided. China is a greater military threat than present-day Russia ; A turn toward Taiwan will most likely cause us to fail in both places   The Guardian, 2023-5-24:  Taiwan's main political parties and an overwhelming majority of Taiwan's people reject the prospect of Chinese rule, but there are large differences in their plans for protecting Taiwan - the KMT says the best way forward is to have friendlier ties with China, DPP's Lai  has been described as more “green” (pro-independence) than Tsai Ing-wen The Guardian, 2023-5-22: US efforts to stifle China's chip industry are thought to be part of a wider plan to hinder Beijing's preparations for war The strategy seems to be working. Financial Times, 2023-5-21: Putin's war in Ukraine has "set back" China's ambitions to invade Taiwan, Hillary Clinton said Washington Post, 2023-5-18: it is now a very serious question whether the United States can defeat a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. To avert war with China, the U.S. must prioritize Taiwan over Ukraine ◆ New York Times, 2023-5-19 : Truss: only if more people visit Taiwan and more speak up for Taiwan, will the Chinese Communist Party realize that many people are paying attention to Taiwan, and so they should not act rashly ◆ New York Times, 2023-5-17  :  faced with voters who have been alarmed by Beijing's aggression toward the island, the Kuomintang is placing its hopes on a popular local leader with a blank slate on the thorny question of China.  The Hill, 2023-5-17:  Washington must dispense with its misguided policy of strategic ambiguity and make clear that it will defend Taiwan against Chinese aggression.  Washington Post, 2023-5-12: military commitments are unlikely to endure under pressure unless they serve U.S. strategic and economic interests. Washington and Taipei share a vital interest in Taiwan's independence New York Times, 2023-5-11:  Some military strategists argue that TSMC's dominance in microchips provides Taiwan a guarantee against an invasion by China — in part because the United States would need to defend such an important piece of its supply chain. Nikkei Asia (Japan), 2023-5-11:  the upper echelons of Chinese leadership intend for it to spread, at least to a certain extent.  —   deciding to forcibly unify Taiwan now would be unrealistic and even dangerous. DW (Germany) , 2023-5-11:  Japan's public reluctant to defend Taiwan should China invade, but soaring defense spending and the upgrading of Japan's naval and air capabilities, in particular, indicate that the military is preparing itself in helping fend off any Chinese attack Washington Post, 2023-5-10: The president of the Hudson Institute:“Saying that we should prioritize Taiwan over Ukraine is like arguing that the firetruck should be parked at a house down the street to guard against a fire breaking out in the future instead of knocking down the fire at the burning house”◆ Foreign Policy in Focus, 2023-5-10:  Unlike Russia, China seems unwilling to sacrifice the country's economic well-being on the pyre of nationalism  Nikkei Asia, 2023-5-11: A contrarian and even taboo view has been allowed to flourish -- that deciding to forcibly unify Taiwan now would be unrealistic and even dangerous ◆ 19FortyFive, 2023-5-10: By stacking their heaviest punches upfront, Beijing thinks that they can render the Americans so dazed and confused — inflicting so much damage at the outset of a fight — that Washington will stand down and abandon Taiwan The Hill, 2023-5-9: lawmakers on both sides of the aisle have also warned that Taiwan is ill prepared to fend off a military invasion or withstand a blockade Air and Space Forces, 2023-5-1: There's little evidence that the Taiwanese are headed in that direction, and are heeding U.S. advice to make themselves a military “porcupine,”Glaser said   le Monde, 2023-4-30: China's military exercises in the Taiwan Strait are a reminder of how fragile the island's status quo is  The Nation, 2023-4-26:  A Chinese invasion of Taiwan, however, would look very different, involving giant air and sea battles and, in all likelihood, immediate US intervention...any such engagement would almost certainly brush up against the nuclear threshold—and very likely cross it.   AP, 2023-4-22: Lawmakers war-game conflict with China, the toll on all sides is staggering.  Alarmed and alienated allies in the war game leave Americans to fight almost entirely alone in support of Taiwan.   CNN, 2023-4-20: complaints at high levels of both the Taiwanese and US governments about the lack of preparation and poor morale in the Taiwanese military   New York Times, 2023-4-18: Fear of China is pitting Taiwan's people against each other Brookings, 2023-4-17: the Taiwan voters are deeply pragmatic. a significant majority of the Taiwan voters are in the middle Washington Post, 2023-4-15: Unlike Ukraine, there is no situation under which Taiwan can defend itself without direct military intervention from the United States  Brookings, 2023-4-15:  Anxiety about China's growing military capabilities to threaten Taiwan... has fed American impulses to alter longstanding policy, and to increasingly view challenges confronting Taiwan through a military lens    New York Times, 2023-4-14: China's Communist Party is now convinced that America wants to bring it down, which some U.S. politicians are actually no longer shy about suggesting.   full text

The Guardian, 2023-4-14:  German foreign minister warns of ‘horror scenario’ in Taiwan strait... the French president, Emmanuel Macron: The worst of things would be to think that we Europeans must be followers on this subject and adapt ourselves to an American rhythm and a Chinese overreaction.”◆  TIME, 2023-4-12:  Xi understands that the risks of Pyrrhic victory – or even of defeat – are real. At a time when China is emerging from the world's most draconian lockdown and its worst economic slowdown in decades New York Post, 2023-4-8: House Foreign Affairs Committee chairman Rep. Michael McCaul has said the US may send troops to Taiwan should China invade the self-governed island.
BBC, 2023-4-8: Taipei residents seemed unperturbed by China's military rehearsing encirclement of Taiwan FoxNews, 2023-4-6:  Taiwan residents are in apparent agreement in believing the U.S. will not come to their aid  New York Times, 2023-4-6: Despite the combative words, any retaliation by Beijing may be tempered by the difficult calculations facing China's leader, including over Taiwan's coming presidential race - could hurt the presidential hopes of the Nationalists, which favors stronger ties with China  New York Times, 2023-4-5:  Walking a Tightrope: Taiwan's president, Tsai Ing-wen, who recently visited the United States, has edged closer to America while trying not to anger China   Economist, 2023-3-29: a Taiwanese policy adviser frames voters' choice as one between “peace or war” ...The  DPP has criticised KMT's  "embracing appeasement”, but it, too, worries about conflict  Taiwan is losing its friends.  Economist (2023-3-28): With China's wallet growing ever larger, Taiwan may instead need to hope that historical ties help to sustain the loyalty of its few remaining diplomatic partners   AFP (2023-3-28): Latin America has been crucial to the diplomatic struggle between Beijing and Taipei since they separated in 1949....the decision by Honduras was a blow to Washington  Modern War Institute at West Point, 2023-3-23:  to deter a specific fait accompli move by China against Taiwan—namely, the seizure of one of Taiwan's outlying islands. ... the best option is something they describe as “the poison frog strategy.”  Foreign Affairs, 2023-3-21: J. Chen Weiss: Alarm Over a Chinese Invasion Could Become a Self-Fulfilling Prophecy The hard but crucial task for U.S. policymakers is to thread the needle between deterrence and provocation...stray too far toward the latter, inadvertently provoking the very conflict U.S. policymakers seek to deter  ◆Reuters, 2023-3-13:  In "anticipation of a total blockade of the Taiwan Strait"... Taiwan says defence spending to focus on readying for 'total blockade' by China U.S. Naval War College  - China Maritime Studies Institute (Mar., 2023): The US may be able to defeat an attempted invasion landing but will lose when China imposes a blockade on the island...Unless US forces were able to dismantle the PLA-integrated air defense system,  the PLA could sustain the air blockade for months if not years without exhausting its inventory of air-to-air or surface-to-air weapons. (Asia Times) The Hill, 2023-3-13: The U.S. must recognize the centrality of maintaining the Taiwanese people's confidence that America and its partners will not abandon them.  Taiwanese must be sure not only that the U.S. will fight to defend them but also that it will prevent China from isolating them Economist, 2023-3-9: War is no longer a remote possibility, because an unstated bargain has frayed. Taiwan could resist an attack on its own only for days or weeks, any conflict could escalate quickly into a superpower confrontation. Economist, 2023-3-6: Taiwan sees invasion and “grey zone” threats as equally important. they are unwilling to give up conventional defence, because there is no guarantee that America would step in. ◆ Foreign Policy Research Institute, 2023-3-9: Xi Jinping views “reunifying” Taiwan with China as an existential task for the ruling Communist Party. For the United States, preserving the status quo in the Taiwan Strait is critical for American security and economic interests Economist, 2023-3-6: Taiwan's fate will, ultimately, be decided by the battle-readiness of its people   full text
 

Honduras ditching Taiwan raises larger geopolitical concerns

AP, Washington Post, The Hill, 2023-3-15 thehill.com/homenews/ap/ap-international/honduras-ditching-taiwan-raises-larger-geopolitical-concerns/   ... a blow to the Biden administration, which has rather fruitlessly tried to convince countries in the region to stick with Taiwan. Taiwan, a U.S. ally,...also exemplifies the American government is “losing it’s grasp on” Latin America
L.A. Times, 2023-3-15 The switch would leave Taiwan recognized by only 13 countries as China spends billions to win recognition of its “one China” policy.   msn.com/en-us/news/world/honduras-to-seek-official-ties-with-china-spurning-its-long-relationship-with-taiwan/ar-AA18EeCH
Bloomberg, 2023-3-15 Tsai Ing-wen has worked to raise the self-governing island’s profile on the world stage during her tenure. Tsai says Taiwan deserves broader recognition and greater support given its status as a democracy. msn.com/en-us/news/world/taiwan-may-lose-official-ally-as-honduras-mulls-china-switch/ar-AA18Du8h

 

New York Times, 2023-2-22: TSMC might have been forced to set up a factory in the United States because of political considerations, but so far, the Phoenix project has yielded very little benefit for TSMC or Taiwan...citing lofty costs.   Bloomberg, 2023-2-22: Holding off the PLA for two weeks is a key goal of Taiwan's military because it would allow time for the US and other allies to come to its aid. Washington Post, 2023-2-22Our best chance of preventing an invasion of Taiwan, and of essentially preventing World War III, is to put actual hard power on Taiwan Washington Post, 2023-2-20:  growing concern — conviction even — that war between the United States and China could be coming. The U.S. should deter — not provoke — Beijing over Taiwan. Economist, 2023-2-18: China still relies on Russia for certain crucial military components, which makes the friendship central to any plans China might have to invade Taiwan  NY Times, 2023-2-15: An active denial strategy that focuses on supplying defensive weapons to U.S. allies and a lower-profile, more agile deployment of U.S. forces in the region would raise the costs of Chinese military action without exacerbating China's own sense of insecurity Council on Foreign Relations, 2023-2-12: the unpredictable nature of ADIZ violations is intended to keep the status quo around Taiwan unstable and ambiguous in order to facilitate strategic surprise  ◆ CNN, 2023-2-9: More US firms in Taiwan say they're seeing 'significant disruption' due to rising tension with China - elevated concern from global headquarters, increased shipping, insurance or financial costs, as well as staff anxiety  Bloomberg, 2023-2-5:   the US position on the island remains equivocal. The intention is to avoid provoking Beijing, yet the consequence is to weaken deterrence. Washington Post, 2023-2-3: (China's) state-run People's Daily said the United States must drop its “obsession” with containing China.   Washington Post, 2023-2-2: Japan must do more, and faster, to avert war over Taiwan...Crudely, Japan seems to be prepared to push back against only Chinese assets that are clearly poised to attack its sovereign territory. New York Times, 2023-2-1: The United States is increasing its military presence in the Philippines , the Philippines is among the most geographically close to Taiwan...is crucial to countering China in the event it attacks Taiwan   US Naval Institute, 2023-2-1:  The US and Taiwan should plan a defense strategy centered on defeating China in an urban war it is possible that using the geography of the island and its urban citadels is the best hope of success in the face of PLA overmatch  Forbes, 2023-2-2: The United States Could Defend Taiwan—At The Cost Of A Lot Of Submarines Forbes, 2023-1-31: China's lack of capacity for amphibious assault as evidence that it will not be ready for war so quickly.  China's use of civilian ferries in military exercises makes it difficult to predict when, and if, China will invade Taiwan. Fortune, 2023-1-29: WSJ: Seth Cropsey warned of a possible war with China over Taiwan.  "If Lai Ching-te, (a fierce supporter of Taiwan's independence) does win (in 2024), Beijing could move quickly to invade". Wall Street Journal, 2023-1-26:  Will the U.S. Really Defend Taiwan? Washington is strategically unprepared for a crisis and Biden's policies are hampering deterrence   WSJ, 2023-1-23: Taiwan is much more important (than Ukraine) to our security and prosperity. Any tanks we can spare should go to Taipei Bloomberg, 2023-1-21: A more effective structure would de-emphasize vulnerable combat aircraft and surface ships and emphasize instead land-based anti-air and anti-ship capabilities. This is what some commentators have called the "porcupine strategy"  New York Times, 2023-1-21: Glaser warns that symbolic victories may not be worth the cost of provoking China ... "But the bottom line is, this is a fight over symbolism" said Dan Blumenthal USA Today, 2023-1-20: Taiwan's envoy to the US says her island has learned lessons from Ukraine's war that will help it deter, defend against an attack by China. Among the lessons: preparing for the kind of all-of-society fight Ukrainians are waging against Russia AFP, 2023-1-21:  Blinken sees lower US tensions with China but risks on Taiwan  CNN, 2023-1-20:  In Taiwan, ex-conscripts feel unprepared for potential China conflict WSJ, 2023-1-19: The Heritage Foundation's latest 'Index of U.S. Military Strength' warns of declining power in the U.S. Navy and Air Force. Taiwan  is ramping up its spending on defense but its conscription and readiness are underwhelming. Economist, 2023-1-19: TSMC  is playing a subtle game of diplomacy in which its business interests come first ◆ Star & Strips  2023-1-19: Taiwan defense experts expect few US boots on the ground if war breaks out with China  The WEEK (UK), 2023-1-19:  China's "compounding troubles" —  the demographic challenges, the pandemic and a troubled property market — could prompt President Xi Jingping to take rash action. New York Post, 2023-1-14:  the U.S. needs to speed up its military shipments to Taiwan, specifically long-range bombers with long-range anti-ship missiles. The SUN, 2023-1-14: Taking Taiwan could even require Beijing to muster a force of two million troops, ...US should help arm Taiwan with missiles to DESTROY Shanghai to stop Chinese invasion, says ex-general TIME, 2023-1-7:  the threat of a costly armed engagement may encourage Beijing to pursue non-military scenarios to try to coerce Taiwan under its control.  Washington Post, 2023-1-9: Taiwan needs to be prepared to withstand a lengthy siege but has not stockpiled nearly enough energy, food, medicine or ammunition. It has only about 10 days of natural gas supplies in reserve... Unfortunately, a lot of Taiwanese still don’t seem to grasp how perilous their situation is. ◆ CNN, 2023-1-9: CSIS War game suggests Chinese invasion of Taiwan would fail at a huge cost to US, Chinese and Taiwanese militaries  ◆ The WEEK (UK), 2023-1-10:  Bloomberg:“calls growing” among American politicians for a commitment to get involved if Beijing invades the island.  full text

 

TIME, 2023-1-7:  the threat of a costly armed engagement may encourage Beijing to pursue non-military scenarios to try to coerce Taiwan under its control. Washington Post, 2023-1-9: Taiwan needs to be prepared to withstand a lengthy siege but has not stockpiled nearly enough energy, food, medicine or ammunition. It has only about 10 days of natural gas supplies in reserve... Unfortunately, a lot of Taiwanese still don’t seem to grasp how perilous their situation is.  ◆The WEEK (UK), 2023-1-10:  Bloomberg:“calls growing” among American politicians for a commitment to get involved if Beijing invades the island. ◆ Forbes, 2023-1-9:  the extended-range JASSM-ER that helped to win the war in CSIS War game  Financial Times, 2023-1-2: Taiwan's move to extend military conscription will not address broader strategic shortfalls... expert has long urged them to build a territorial defence force, a force which could operate as an urban guerrilla under a more decentralised command Forbes, 2023-1-2: Economics, often takes a back seat to geopolitics and national pride (questions of sovereignty and  the hyper-sensitivities of China's leadership) The Hill, 2023-1-3: America's ‘strategic ambiguity’ on Taiwan gets more dangerous by the day  The Hill, 2022-12-30: Mark Esper says Taiwan is “not prepared enough” for a potential Chinese invasion The Guardian, 2022-12-30: Extending conscription may make Taiwan feel safer – but at the cost of alienating its young people  Deutsche Welle, 2022-12-30: US support for Taiwan is double edged: both essential to its survival, and risking dragging Taiwan into a much bigger conflict.   Reuters, 2022-12-28: China slams Taiwan for seeking to use the Taiwanese people as "cannon fodder" by extending compulsory military service from four months to one year Wall Street Journal, 2022-12-28:  Military conscription is a good start, but leaders in Taipei need to act with greater urgency still New York Times, 2022-12-26: With Record Military Incursions, China Warns Taiwan and U.S.71 military aircraft buzzed the airspace near Taiwan   Politico, 2022-12-27:  The U.S. has pledged to deploy so much firepower to the Indo-Pacific in 2023 that China won’t even consider invading Taiwan. Lawmakers and allies say it’s already too late Modern War Institute at West point, 2022-12-19: Taiwan has mostly accepted the need to shift to a “porcupine strategy” ... implementation has been slow. And Taiwan has neglected to cultivate the guerrilla-style resistance forces that will be necessary to counter an occupation. ◆ Politico (eu), 2022-12-20: the consequences of war in Asia would be just as devastating for the Continent.  if Taiwan wants to alter Beijing's cost-benefit calculus and deter an invasion, it must move boldly and quickly to bolster its defense. ◆  War on the Rocks,2022-12-19:  Biden's National Security Strategy of October 2022 tilted toward strategic ambiguity. ◆  CNN , 2022-12-17:  The population pool is decreasing, so Taiwan is actively considering whether to resume conscription to meet our military needs  ◆  War on the Rocks,2022-12-14: Is China planning to attack Taiwan? a careful consideration of available evidence says NO      full text

 

NBC, 2022-12-27: Taiwan to extend military conscription to one year, citing threat from China

WSJ, 2022-12-27 a once politically unpalatable move that has become imperative in the face of growing concerns about a Chinese attack and intensifying competition between Washington and Beijing. wsj.com/articles/taiwan-to-extend-mandatory-military-service-11672129529
PBS, AP2022-12-27 The White House welcomed the announcement on conscription reform, saying it underscores Taiwan’s commitment to self-defense and strengthens deterrence...mong the youngest demographic group of 20-24, however,  only 35.6 percent said they would support an extension pbs.org/newshour/world/taiwan-extends-compulsory-military-service-from-4-months-to-1-year
CNN, 2022-12-27  Chinese soldiers can only make an amphibious landing after taking control of the air and the sea...before they land, there will likely be bombing and blockade, and we need people to deliver goods and guide residents to air raid shelters  edition.cnn.com/2022/12/27/asia/taiwan-military-conscription-intl-hnk/index.html
Washington Post, 12-27 It had been a widely debated topic for a long time, but faced with Chinese threats, the government was left little room to be hesitant   washingtonpost.com/world/2022/12/27/taiwan-military-mandatory-service-china/
Mainichi Japan , 2022-12-28 The change is said to have come at the request of the United States
 
mainichi.jp/english/articles/20221227/p2g/00m/0in/058000c
GT (China), 2022-12-27 "a deplorable decision" made under US pressure  /   the DPP authorities might incorporate some conscripts into the "cyber army" to engage in collecting intelligence and conduct information warfare against the mainland, given their relatively weak capabilities on the real battlefield. ...expecting that the US may ask Taiwan authorities to increase the defense budget to purchase more US weapons and ensure the island's military is in line with US strategy. globaltimes.cn/page/202212/1282753.shtml    12-27

 

  The WEEK (UK), 2022-12-4 : A RAND Corporation study predicted that a yearlong war would cut the U.S.'s gross domestic product by 5 to 10 percent — but it would slash China's by 25 to 35 percent.  The Atlantic, 2022-12-3: Taiwanese people seem blissfully oblivious of a looming conflict with China. The U.S. can't afford that luxury Economist, 2022-11-29:  many Taiwanese are tired of squabbles over national identity, especially after Ms Tsai's refusal last year to accept an offer of much-needed vaccines from China   Wall Street Journal, 2022-11-28: Taiwan Ruling Party's election drubbing could ease tension with China and persuade Chinese leaders that they can peacefully influence politics there.      full text

 

  Can "silicon shield" protect Taiwan?

CNN, 2022-12-9 Taiwan worries about losing its ‘silicon shield’  /  TSMC's presence gives a strong incentive to the West to defend Taiwan against any attempt by China to take it by force...Chiu (a lawmaker) claimed that the chip giant was under political pressure to move its operations and its most advanced technology to the US.  edition.cnn.com/2022/12/09/tech/taiwan-tsmc-chips-hnk-intl/index.html 
USA Today, 2022-12-9 America just won a major victory over China. If China seized control of Taiwan's semiconductor factories, the global economic loss would be "mutually assured destruction."  usatoday.com/story/opinion/columnist/2022/12/09/biden-tsmc-semiconductor-arizona-win-us-over-china/10847994002/  
Financial Times, 2022-12-12 TSMC's investments in the US and elsewhere are stoking fears over ‘hollowing out’ of Taiwan's economy... Premier Su has already stated that  TSMC is not free to transfer its technology wherever it wishes  ft.com/content/2408b289-dbf4-40db-87db-eb272aef68b9
New York Times, 2022-12-6 In Phoenix, a Taiwanese Chip Giant Builds a Hedge Against China ...But the company set a limit on the factory’s level of production technology  nytimes.com/2022/12/06/technology/tsmc-chips-factory-phoenix.html
Reuters, 2022-12 Taiwan seeks to reassure on TSMC commitment to island despite U.S. investment   msn.com/en-us/money/markets/taiwan-seeks-to-reassure-on-tsmc-commitment-to-island-despite-u-s-investment/ar-AA14ZR39
Bloomberg, 2022-10-7 some advocate the US make clear to China that it would destroy TSMC facilities if the island was occupied...Such a “scorched-earth strategy” scenario appeared in the November 2021 issue of the US Army War College Quarterly.    finance.yahoo.com/news/taiwan-tensions-spark-round-us-090131394.html?fr=sycsrp_catchall
TIME, 2022-10-5 Taiwan's President Tsai Ing-wen recently argued in Foreign Affairs that the island's chip industry is a “‘silicon shield’ that allows Taiwan to protect itself and others from aggressive attempts by authoritarian regimes to disrupt global supply chains.” That's a highly optimistic way of looking at the situation.  time.com/6219318/tsmc-taiwan-the-center-of-the-world/
New York Times, 2022-9-9 Taiwan is protected by something far more subtle —The "silicon shield"...If it is clear that China will be better off with a steady flow of chips from Taiwan, peace is likely to prevail
New York Times, 2022-8-29 Analysts debate how much protection China's reliance on Taiwan gives it.  Some argue that calculations over supply chains are insignificant in a decision over war.
 National Interest, 2022-5-15 Taiwan's “silicon shield”—the name for a strategy that entrusts the island's defense to both Chinese and American reliance on its semiconductors—is an outmoded concept that burdens the United States, emboldens Taiwan, and fails to deter China
VOA News, 2021-5-10 Song Hong, assistant general director at the Institute of World Economics and Politics under the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences  shrugged off the geopolitical implications of Taiwan’s silicon shield, saying that China views Taiwanese issues as domestic affairs and will not be deterred from its goals by U.S. action
AIT (US), 2021-5-22 Taiwan should not regard TSMC as a guaranteed security blanket.  
Fox News, 2022-8-26  Why would the U.S. fight China over Taiwan, Trade is the key reason and the aforementioned importance of semiconductor production is the glue
The Atlantic, 2022-10-3 The U.S. Has a Microchip Problem. A Chinese attack on the island would imperil the world’s supply of semiconductor components.  Safeguarding Taiwan Is the Solution.  theatlantic.com/international/archive/2022/10/taiwan-microchip-supply-chain-china/671615/  
New York Times, 2022-1-25 75 percent of production takes place in East Asia.  Ninety percent of the most advanced chips are made in Taiwan...China could use economic coercion, cyberoperations and hybrid tactics to try to seize or harm Taiwan's semiconductor industry — Biden promised he would work to bring production of semiconductor chips back to the United States.  nytimes.com/2022/01/26/us/politics/computer-chip-shortage-taiwan.html
 CBS News, 2022-9-25 Blinken said. "[Which is] one of the reasons we're now investing so heavily in our own capacity to produce semiconductors here in the United States. We designed them, but the actual production is done in a handful of places, and Taiwan produces most of them… The effects that that would have on the global economy would be devastating."

 
Taiwan dominates the global production of computer chips /

 
BBC, 2022-1-12, source: The Military Balnce, IISS 2021

Taiwan S. Korea China Other
65% 18% 5% 12%

news.yahoo.com/china-taiwan-really-simple-guide-142542268.html

 
 

 

Reuters,  2022-11-27: Tsai had tried to frame the elections as more than just a local vote, saying the world is watching how Taiwan defends its democracy amid tensions with China... But her strategy failed to win public support.  Bloomberg, 2022-11-26: Taiwan Counts Votes in Elections Set to Shape Presidential Race ; Expert: The winners of elections will have a say in who get picked to in the subsequent presidential elections  Washington Post, 2022-11-23: Despite consistent prodding from Washington, however, Taipei is also not nationalistic enough in the sense that it hasn’t engaged in the kind of military preparation necessary to deter an attack. Its political leaders are reluctant to reduce their dependence on U.S. protection Wall Street Journal, 2022-11-23:  ...the persistent fecklessness of Taiwanese government's defense policy, whose bottom line is that the island should be defended by others while Taiwan's youth can continue to play video games.◆ Economist, 2022-11-24: Where might conflict flare up in 2023?  Keep an eye on Taiwan and the South China Sea—and the Himalayas  full text

 

  "Taiwan's midterms"
Wall Street Journal, 2022-11-28: Taiwan Ruling Party's election drubbing could ease tension with China and persuade Chinese leaders that they can peacefully influence politics there.  

CNN,2022-11-27: Taiwan's President billed midterms as all about China. The pro-independence DPP's losses come as a heavy blow for Tsai as she had tried to frame the election – as a way to send a message against Beijing’s rising bellicosity toward the island.   edition.cnn.com/2022/11/27/asia/taiwan-election-analysis-intl-hnk/index.html
DPP-friendly mass media FTV (民視, 2022-11-28, 2022-11-27; ftvnews.com.tw/video/detail/h0489vFQzf4,  youtube.com/watch?v=2Nn4iEsCHGA, etc ) analyzed that one main factor causing DPP drubbed in local vote is war fears.  " Taiwan president strategy 'resist China and defend Taiwan' backfires" (Reuters, 2022-11-27).
 

media

comments

Reuters,  2022-11-27 Tsai had tried to frame the elections as more than just a local vote, saying the world is watching how Taiwan defends its democracy amid tensions with China... But her strategy failed to win public support.   news.yahoo.com/taiwan-presidents-election-strategy-backfires-185831747.html
Independent (UK), 2022-11-27 Tsai's DPP campaigned on the political anger against China's stance towards Taiwan, the KMT focussed more on the self-ruled island’s democracy and freedom; Its campaign also pointed to whether the government favoured a local vaccine over imported ones.   msn.com/en-gb/news/world/taiwan-election-president-tsai-ing-wen-resigns-as-ruling-party-chair-after-disastrous-results/ar-AA14BJm0
Global Times (China),
2022-11-28
A loud "No" to DPP authorities' policies on a wide range of topics related to people's livelihoods including the chaotic COVID-19 response and the failure to rein in rising prices, and also demonstrated that Tsai Ing-wen''s "China threat bet" has backfired.  Such results proved the mainstream public opinion on the island was for peace.  Besides, failures in handling frequent scandals violating "values" it boasted about,  corruption, black gold politics and nepotism severely violated what the DPP had pledged to the people,  in many cases DPP sacrificed the interests of ordinary people and local companies such as relaxing a ban on food imports from Japan's sites of Fukushima nuclear disaster, and the US pork with ractopamine, DPP appeared to be incapable of handling the prices and livelihoods crises, and have also mulled lengthening the mandatory military service, a very unpopular idea among the youth.    globaltimes.cn/page/202211/1280569.shtml
China Times (Taiwan),
2022-11-27
A very critical and important factor is the Taiwanese people's fear of war, which made Tsai's "resist China and defend Taiwan" policy fail, possible extending military service to resist China is unpopular among young voters .... Besides, Yilan county magistrates Lin Zimiao (林姿妙) and HsinChu mayoral candidate Gao Hongan(高虹安) both appealed for "suppression by the state apparatus".   chinatimes.com/opinion/20221127002671-262110?chdtv  brief  黃智賢
Bloomberg, 2022-11-26 Taiwan Counts Votes in Elections Set to Shape Presidential Race ; Expert: The winners of elections will have a say in who get picked to in the subsequent presidential elections  news.yahoo.com/taiwan-votes-local-elections-set-000000672.html?fr=sycsrp_catchall


 Fortune, 2022-11-19:  U.S. restrictions on selling advanced computer chips to China could make invading Taiwan more tempting to Beijing. U.S. faces ‘immediate Great Depression’ if China seizes Taiwan’s semiconductor industry Wall Street Journal, 2022-11-22: In Taiwan, a Shaky Status Quo Prevails; The people here have little desire either to yield to Beijing or to provoke a war Economist, 2022-11-18: Will Taiwan be the Ukraine of Asia?
The status quo is breaking down, making war more likely CNN's meanwhile in China, 2022-11-14:  For Beijing, no red line is starker or more crucial than its claim over Taiwan ...The Chinese believe the US goal is to keep China down so we can contain it. And the US believes China's goal is to make the world safer for authoritarian states, push the US out of Asia and weaken its alliance system CNN, 2022-11-13: Biden's repeated statements on the American obligation to defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasion have done little to lower the temperature.◆Washington Post, 2022-11-13: Congress seeks to arm Taiwan quickly before the bullets start flying Economist, 2022-11-10: International attention is always welcome in Taiwan's quest for global recognition  NY Times, briefing, 2022-11-11: Taiwan is the top issue. Biden has taken a bolder stance on Taiwan than previous U.S. presidents. Washington Examiner, 2022-11-11: commander of U.S. Strategic Command: This Ukraine crisis  is just the warmup, the Taiwan war may be the next world war Washington Post, 2022-11-10: Beijing might also resort to force to stem what it sees ... a growing Taiwan-centric identity — as well as deepening U.S.-Taiwan security ties   DW (Germany), 2022-11-8: Beijing denies having an accelerated timeline on Taiwan "reunification" Washington Times, 2022-11-8:  It would take at least a decade to design and build new types of ships and aircraft to counter China's threats... US Forces in the Indo-Pacific   may not be able to defend Taiwan successfully today Newsweek, 2022-11-8: Beijing's forces have "a lot of work to do" before attempting what would be one of the most difficult military campaigns in modern history National Interest, 2022-11-4: Washington should mediate a political solution between Moscow and Kyiv and refocus its global efforts on deterring Beijing from invading Taiwan ◆ USNI, 2022-11-7: Pentagon official: China will increase pressure on Taiwan in next two years rather than invade   The Atlantic, 2022-11-7: Because Taiwan is an island, it will be difficult to resupply in the event of hostilities; Taiwan needs support now  ◆ Fox News, 2022-11-4: If China conquers Taiwan, it would be huge blow to US national security, economy FoxNews, Reuters, Hill,Vice, 2022-10-31: US to Put Nuclear-Capable B52s in Australia as Taiwan Invasion Fears Grow   Fortune, 2022-10-30: China's Xi Jinping now has 'unlimited power' and could use Taiwan as a distraction from 'internal problems' CNN, 2022-10-27:  A hot war in Asia remains unlikely in the foreseeable future Washington Post, 2022-10-28: Taiwan, missiles and spying set to be China’s priorities under new Xi term WarOnTheRocks, 2022-10-28:U.S. support for Ukraine and other dynamics have led some to question if the current administration is truly prioritizing Taiwan   SCMP, 2022-10-30: Tsai administration accused of stalling decision due to plan's unpopularity with young voters; Better training needed if Taiwan extends mandatory military service, experts say US News, 2022-10-27:  Russia's Sechin Says U.S. attempts to create its own complex microchip industry showed that "Taiwan's return to its native harbour" was "on schedule"   The Guardian, 2022-10-25: Xi Jinping's party purge prompts fears of greater Taiwan invasion risk     full text

 

 The SUN (UK), 2022-10-23: CHINA is “all but guaranteed” to attack Taiwan in the wake of Xi Jinping becoming leader for life  - and it could be one of the bloodiest wars in history, a leading expert has warned  New York Times, 2022-10-20:  The longer, written version of Xi's speech also stated that China has strengthened its “strategic initiative for China’s complete reunification,” suggesting greater urgency for its future plans   New York Times, 2022-10-19:  the Chinese leader is unlikely to seek military conflict, either to divert attention from domestic challenges or to act before China's power peaks. BBC, 2022-10-18: China is pursuing unification with Taiwan "on a much faster timeline" than previously expected, Blinken says, Beijing had decided the status quo was no longer acceptable   Newsweek, 2022-10-21: Beijing has responded to the U.S. Navy's warning of a potential Chinese attack on Taiwan as soon as this year by cautioning Washington against any intervention on the sensitive geopolitical issue Daily Express, 2022-10-21: the 'Weakness' of US could 'encourage' China's efforts to blockade Taiwan; Experts urged the US to stand firm against Beijing The Diplomat, 2022-10-21:  recent polling has indicated over 50 percent of Americans support coming to Taiwan’s defense if an invasion were to occur USNI news, 2022-10-18:  China is looking to speed up its timeline for taking control of Taiwan to 2027 CNBC, 2022-10-18: Political watchers say the (CCP Congress) speech showed that Xi is not be keen to take Taiwan by force Reuters,2022-10-17: Analysis-Xi's new generals face tough military challenges post-congress;  the conundrum for the PLA is the lack of operational experience  New York Times,2022-10-16: On Taiwan, Xi Jinping warns (at the Congress) against international 'interference' ...China is still exerting what Xi also uses in the speech — ‘strategic patience NPR, 2022-10-18: there's evidence to suggest that from China's point of view, what they really want is control, not that kind of symbolic unification VOA,2022-10-16: Despite Tough Words, Japan Might Not Enter a Taiwan War Washington Post, 2022-10-16: Xi: the party had already created a “new choice” for humanity with its unique path to modernization — a nod to China's emergence as an alternative to Western democracies.  The SUN (UK),2022-10-16: an authority on China's military, recently warned the country is convinced it needs to hit America "hard and early " in a surprise Pearl Harbor-style attack to invade Taiwan.   full text

 

  Washington Post, 2022-10-12: Xi's looming third term in China raises threat of war over Taiwan... “Before, leaders talked about unification as something to be achieved in the long run. Now, it's number one on the agenda.” Wall Street Journal, 2022-10-10: Mr. Xi may be disinclined to wait, given the risk of a more assertive president in Taipei in May 2024 or Washington in January 2025. Beijing's recent rhetoric has been consistent with this hypothesis ◆ Economist, 2022-10-10:  In Washington, there is talk of intelligence that the pla has been told to be in a position to take Taiwan by 2027...The liberal political order is at stake CBS News,2022-10-9: while much of the world thought an invasion might be imminent, polls showed that a majority of Taiwanese think that is unlikely any time soon, if ever..."This is not a matter of if they will invade, it's a matter of when they will invade"   NY Times, 2022-10-5:  the U.S. was intensifying efforts to build a giant stockpile of weapons in Taiwan, turning it into a “porcupine” bristling with armaments to discourage aggression from mainland China Forbes, 2022-10-3: Defense Secretary Austin: Chinese Invasion Of Taiwan Not 'Imminent'; “What we do see is China moving to establish what we would call a new normal".◆ FoxNews, 2022-10-2: soon-to-be Secretary-General of ASEAN: China 'would not' invade Taiwan if Beijing believes it owns the island  Chicago Tribune, 2022-9-23: if China needs to be confronted militarily (and that's unlikely), Taiwan is precisely the wrong place to try to do that Wall Street Journal,2022-9-19: China Is Capable of Blockading Taiwan, U.S. Navy Commander Says CBS News,2022-9-18: Biden tells <60 Minutes> U.S. forces, U.S. men and women would defend Taiwan, but White House says this is not official U.S. policy ◆ Wall Street Journal,2022-9-19: China Is Capable of Blockading Taiwan, U.S. Navy Commander Says NY Times,2022-9-10: Drones -the latest front in China's mounting campaign of intimidation and psychological warfare NY Times, 2022-9-4: Washington is increasingly wary that an emboldened China might invade Taiwan in the coming years. ◆ Washington Examiner, 2022-9-6: Taiwan sees Bidens political-fears weakening us-strategy to counter china   The Hill, 2022-9-6: none of the three governments that could begin a war over Taiwan — those in Washington, Beijing and Taipei — should see war as in its interest...Taiwan will be extremely hard for us to defend ◆ abc news, 2022-9-5: Military reserves, Civil Defense worry Taiwan as China looms ◆ Washington Examiner, 2022-9-5: Xi could use force against Taiwan amid 'challenges from within' ◆Daily Express (UK), 2022-8-29: WW3 looming as 'no good options' remain in 'dangerous' China-US conflict over Taiwan   NY Times, 2022-8-25: China could try to impose a blockade to force the island into concessions or as a precursor to wider military action  NY Times, 2022-8-21: critics argued the tensions over Taiwan showed that Washington needed stronger military and economic strategies. War on the Rocks, 2022-8-22: Some five to nine missiles passed over Taiwan en route to targets east of the main island full text

 

Can "silicon shield" protect Taiwan?

New York Times, 2022-9-9 Taiwan is protected by something far more subtle —The "silicon shield"...If it is clear that China will be better off with a steady flow of chips from Taiwan, peace is likely to prevail
New York Times, 2022-8-29 Analysts debate how much protection China's reliance on Taiwan gives it.  Some argue that calculations over supply chains are insignificant in a decision over war.
 National Interest, 2022-5-15 Taiwan's “silicon shield”—the name for a strategy that entrusts the island's defense to both Chinese and American reliance on its semiconductors—is an outmoded concept that burdens the United States, emboldens Taiwan, and fails to deter China
VOA News, 2021-5-10 Song Hong, assistant general director at the Institute of World Economics and Politics under the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences  shrugged off the geopolitical implications of Taiwan’s silicon shield, saying that China views Taiwanese issues as domestic affairs and will not be deterred from its goals by U.S. action
New York Times, 2022-1-25 75 percent of production takes place in East Asia.  Ninety percent of the most advanced chips are made in Taiwan...China could use economic coercion, cyberoperations and hybrid tactics to try to seize or harm Taiwan's semiconductor industry — Biden promised he would work to bring production of semiconductor chips back to the United States.  nytimes.com/2022/01/26/us/politics/computer-chip-shortage-taiwan.html
CBS News, 2022-9-25 Blinken said. "[Which is] one of the reasons we're now investing so heavily in our own capacity to produce semiconductors here in the United States. We designed them, but the actual production is done in a handful of places, and Taiwan produces most of them… The effects that that would have on the global economy would be devastating."
AIT (US), 2021-5-22 Taiwan should not regard TSMC as a guaranteed security blanket.  

 

SCMP, 2022-8-21:  PLA adopts nuclear deterrence to stop foreign intervention on Taiwan: analysts   NY Times, 2022-8-11: Taiwan, which has struggled with accidents and morale in the face of such a would-be foe as China. By many accounts, Taiwan's forces are poorly equipped and understaffed Economist, 2022-8-10: Ms Pelosi's visit has allowed Beijing to move to a new level of military activity unchallenged, which will make it harder for America to defend Taiwan. Economist, 2022-8-11: America has changed,...it began to doubt that it was worth defending...there is little doubt that America would join a fight over Taiwan today...  Japan ...has indicated that it could intervene in a war...Taiwan must also show more willingness to defend itself Washington Post, 2022-8-11: Beijing is now focusing on taking the island by force, not through peaceful reunification  Economist, 2022-8-11: US expert ...assessment is that China could keep Taiwan sealed off for many months, perhaps years, with devastating effect. Economist, 2022-8-10: Ms Pelosi's visit has allowed Beijing to move to a new level of military activity unchallenged, which will make it harder for America to defend Taiwan. ◆ BBC, 2022-8-9: Beijing firing missiles over Taiwan - have become "acceptable" - because they have happened, and Beijing has got away with it. this becomes the new standard  NY Times, 2022-8-8: China's drills near Taiwan is a sign that Beijing will keep up its military pressure on Taiwan, and could be normalizing its presence around the island before gradually cutting off access to its airspace and waters New York Times, 2022-8-7: After China's Military Spectacle, Options Narrow for Winning Over Taiwan  full text

 

Biden "U.S. forces, U.S. men and women would defend Taiwan"  (CBS,2022-9-18)
 CNN (US), 2022-9-20 looks like the US has moved from ambiguity to deterrence...  Biden's remarks don't necessarily equate to how he would behave in a real crisis. edition.cnn.com/2022/09/19/world/joe-biden-taiwan-answer-analysis/index.html  
Bloomberg, 2022-9-20 “Such comments will do more to feed Beijing's sense of urgency than they will bolster deterrence” Taiwan's leaders could move closer to independence — U.S. allies like Japan or South Korea will almost certainly be made more uneasy... risks pulling them into a war    msn.com/en-us/news/world/biden-s-vow-to-defend-taiwan-makes-us-policy-shift-explicit/ar-AA123qxX
Japan Times (Japan), 2022-9-20 Cornell prof. called Biden's remarks “dangerous",  this new combo (a pledge to send troops + decisions about independence are Taiwan’s) suggests an unconditional commitment, U.S. is issuing Taiwan a blank check japantimes.co.jp/news/2022/09/20/asia-pacific/politics-diplomacy-asia-pacific/biden-taiwan-remarks-uncertainty/
Washington Examiner (US),
2022-9-
20
wrong to commit to Taiwan's defense unambiguously,  two key concerns here. (1) Taiwan's defense spending remains ludicrously low in face of the existential threat it faces. (2) It's one thing to tell a pollster that you're willing to fight and die for your country. It's a different thing to take painstaking steps to prepare for that eventuality. And the hard truth is that far too few Taiwanese are currently taking those steps msn.com/en-us/news/world/the-two-problems-with-bidens-taiwan-defense-pledge/ar-AA120KGw
 Politico, 2022-9-19 The big question is, what are the costs we're really willing to pay?” Stanford's Skylar Mastro said. politico.com/news/2022/09/19/biden-leaves-no-doubt-strategic-ambiguity-toward-taiwan-is-dead-00057658
Washington Post, 2022-9-19 Yet presidential pronouncements alone can only deter China so much... Congress should provide Mr. Biden and his successors with a stronger set of legislative instructions washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/09/19/biden-china-taiwan-60-minutes/

DW (Germany), 2022-9-19 scholars: "it can lead to very different results than what Biden might be thinking he has the capacity to do,"," US "strategic ambiguity is becoming more strategic and less ambiguous." dw.com/en/biden-us-forces-would-defend-taiwan-if-china-invades/a-63166248
Le Monde (France), 2022-9-19 Alors que l’occupant de la Maison Blanche a tenu des propos forts sur le dossier taïwanais dimanche soir, la Chine a dénoncé « une grave violation de [son] engagement important à ne pas soutenir l’indépendance de Taïwan .   lemonde.fr/international/article/2022/09/19/joe-biden-affirme-que-les-etats-unis-defendraient-taiwan-en-cas-d-invasion-chinoise_6142183_3210.html
 France 24 (France), 2022-9-19  most explicit statement so far on the issue, something sure to anger Beijing.Biden's Asia policy czar, Kurt Campbell, has in the past rejected any move to "strategic clarity" over Taiwan, saying there were "significant downsides" to such an approachmsn.com/en-gb/news/world/biden-says-us-forces-would-defend-taiwan-if-china-invades/ar-AA11YIsO
Daily Express (UK), 2022-9-19 Bonnie Glaser: " if Mr Biden makes such pledges he needs the "capability" to back them up, If President Biden plans to defend Taiwan, then he should make sure the U.S. military has the capability to do so", “"Rhetorical support that isn't backed up by real capabilities is unlikely to strengthen deterrence express.co.uk/news/world/1671100/Joe-Biden-Taiwan-China-Xi-Jinping-CBS-Nancy-Pelosi-White-House-ont
Bloomberg (US), 2022-9-19 Expert Bonnie Glaser: China has long assumed that the US would intervene to defend Taiwan, so these statements don’t change PLA plans, Prof. Lev Nachman: The worry is that this will exacerbate Taiwan's current high-tension moment rather than reduce it.。” Bloomberg     msn.com/en-us/news/world/biden-says-us-would-defend-taiwan-from-unprecedented-attack/ar-AA11Yf55
Washington Post (US), 2022-9-19 Biden’s most hawkish comments on Taiwan yet  /  The implications for that are huge. This is still in the realm of the hypothetical   washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/09/19/biden-taiwan-china-defense/
Global Times (CHN) , 2022-9-19 his most explicit answer so far on the question, which analysts believe suggested a shifting process in Washington's decades-long "strategic ambiguity" policy  ...not only his personal views, but also those in his White House team and various political forces on Capitol Hill.  China clearly knows that the US is trying to erode its "one-China policy." If the US moves further toward such "strategic clarity" that is entirely targeted against the Chinese mainland and supports Taiwan's pro-independence behaviors, we will certainly have diplomatic, military and economic countermeasures for them, Xin said.   globaltimes.cn/page/202209/1275600.shtml 
The Conversation  (Australia),
2022-9-20
so does this support mean economic aid, supply of weapons or U.S. boots on the ground? China and Taiwan are left guessing if – and to what extent – the U.S. will be involved in any China-Taiwan conflict.    news.yahoo.com/biden-again-indicates-us-defend-181440760.html
Chicago Tribune, 2022-9-23 At what cost to US national interests? if China needs to be confronted militarily (and that's unlikely), Taiwan is precisely the wrong place to try to do that  chicagotribune.com/opinion/commentary/ct-opinion-taiwan-china-biden-tensions-20220922-tjd6rxcmozgunew3djsycoodsa-story.html

 

Reuters, 2022-8-7: The ability to enforce a blockade would give Beijing leverage to bring Taiwan to the negotiating table ;A former Chinese defence official :"Seeing how the U.S. and its allies responded to the drills, how confident can Taiwan leaders be in counting on them to come to the rescue should the PLA attack?"  New York Times, 2022-8-2: China is preparing a hostile response of some sort...This is an exceptionally dangerous situation, perhaps more so than Ukraine   CNN,2022-7-29: Pelosi's possible visit potentially triggers the worst cross-strait crisis in decades ... the escalating tension barely made headline news in Taiwan this week. Taiwan has made few comments about the situation. NY Times, 2022-7-28: The United States and China are on a collision course in the Taiwan Strait. China may soon be capable of seizing democratically ruled Taiwan — even in a fight with the United States.  NY Times, 2022-7-25: Chinese leaders might try to move against the self-governing island over the next year and a half — perhaps by trying to cut off access to all or part of the Taiwan Strait  ◆ CNN,2022-7-25: Under Xi, a rising wave of nationalism has swept China, and support for "reuniting" with Taiwan  possibly by force  is running high ◆ Washington Post, 2022-7-23: Many Asian leaders have voiced fears that Russia’s effort to take over Ukraine could embolden China to move aggressively into Taiwan  le Monde (France), 2022-7-21: China appears determined on using force in Taiwan DW (Germany),2022-7-22: Japan defense report warns Russia's invasion of Ukraine could encourage China to act against Taiwan ◆ Business Insider, 2022-7-21: CIA chief: the Ukraine war likely won't shake China's resolve to invade Taiwan FoxNews, 2022-7-20: CIA director 'wouldn't rule out' near-term Taiwan invasion  full text

 

No guarantee that U.S. military will hold the same view as Biden to defend Taiwan

Foreign Policy, Politico, 2022-10-2: Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin declined to directly endorse President Joe Biden’s statement that the U.S. military would defend Taiwan   politico.com/news/2022/10/02/lloyd-austin-china-taiwan-biden-00059922
The Hill, 2022-10-3: US defense chief sidesteps questions on Biden’s pledge to defend Taiwan news.yahoo.com/us-defense-chief-sidesteps-questions-200504858.html
VICE, 2022-9-28:  no guarantee that the next U.S. president will hold the same view as Biden, given the lack of a formal commitment by the U.S. military to intervene in the event of an attack by the PLA  vice.com/en/article/m7gp7v/taiwan-defense-china-invasion-conscripts

 

Washington Post, 2022-7-3:  these steps (asymmetric warfare) may not be enough to repel a far more powerful opponent like China. Taiwan's mandatory military service ... spend more time doing menial labor than learning combat skills. Tactics taught are comparable to those (Gulf War or the Vietnam War) N.Y. Times, 2022-6-19: A Looming Threat /  ...Taiwan politicians have electoral considerations. Extending military conscription, for example, would probably not be very popular  New York Times, 2022-6-13: Taiwan's defenses are, by many accounts, ill-equipped and understaffed...Should China invade, Taiwan's defenses will almost certainly crumble unless the United States and its allies help.  AFP, France24, 2022-6-10: China will 'not hesitate to start war' if Taiwan declares independence, Beijing says ◆ NY Times, 2022-6-10: American officials ... worry that China's leader, Xi Jinping, may be willing to go to war over Taiwan in the coming years.   full text

 

Contrast    Taiwan Strait Crisis in 1996 and 2022

New York Times, 2022-8-5 the U.S. military had ordered the U.S.S. Ronald Reagan to “remain on station” in the region but some distance from the entrance to the Taiwan Strait.... during a crisis in 1996, when President Bill Clinton moved aircraft carriers closer to the strait.  (PS: and conducted large scale drills  zh.m.wikipedia.org/zh-hant/台灣海峽飛彈危機 ) nytimes.com/2022/08/04/world/asia/taiwan-china-military-drills.html
New York Times, 2022-8-4 ... failing to move more naval forces into the region, the United States would be perceived by Mr. Xi as less committed to the region than Mr. Clinton was a quarter century ago.
United Daily (Taiwan) , 2022-8-5 The drill has been conducted under US tacit permission, which shakes the policy of peaceful resolution...  udn.com/news/story/11091/6515486?from=udn_ch2cate6643sub11091_pulldownmenu_v2
  USA Today, 2022-8-6 National Security Council:U.S. would postpone intercontinental ballistic missile test scheduled... reducing the risks of miscalculation and misperception news.yahoo.com/china-halts-climate-military-ties-152347684.html?fr=sycsrp_catchall
   Global Times (China), 2022-8-5 the US Navy's Ronald Reagan carrier strike group retreated hundreds of kilometers eastward overnight, after the PLA announced live-fire exercise zones east of the island

China's Missiles over Taiwan  in 2022-8-5

  CNN, 2022-8-4 missiles flying over the island marked a significant escalation
New York Times, 2022-8-3 China's CCTV stated that one of the missiles flew over Taiwan, marking another escalation of Chinese pressure on the island and risking serious miscalculation.


 

China's "staging the largest-ever People's Liberation Army exercises around Taiwan" (Newsweek,2022-8-5)     
WHY ?? 

 NY Times, 2022-8-4 Stanford scholar: “Under the guise of signaling, they’re trying to basically test their ability to conduct complex maneuvers that are necessary for an amphibious assault on Taiwan.” nytimes.com/2022/08/03/world/asia/taiwan-china-military-exercises.html    
 Business Insider, 2022-8-5  "a show of force to respond to Pelosi's visit" and "to exhibit [China's] displeasure" and "presumably to deter the US or other countries from undertaking visits like this ..."  "readiness to respond to Taiwan provocations"    news.yahoo.com/chinas-missile-launches-military-drills-211102958.html?fr=sycsrp_catchall
 AFP (France), 2022-8-6 a former CIA Asia analyst:  main purpose with its military exercises was to change that status quo."The Chinese want to show... that a line has been crossed by the speaker's visit."
American University Professor: Beijing's message was meant to signal that China can alter the power balance in the region if it chooses. "The Chinese seriously believe that the United States has not been respecting their interests on the Taiwan issue"
  news.yahoo.com/us-china-relations-risk-long-215317757.html?fr=sycsrp_catchall

 The Times (UK), 2022-8-6

Chinese jets menace Taiwan in an end to diplomacy

Global Times (Chn), 2022-8-5

Some Taiwan-based media hyped that the mainland's economic punishment could antagonize the public...    "If the mainland opts for economic sanctions, it may terminate the Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA)"...  Taiwan had a trade surplus of more than $170 billion with the Chinese mainland in 2021.  globaltimes.cn/page/202208/1272245.shtml
NY Times, 2022-8-8 not only to intimidate Taiwan and the United States, but also to appease a domestic audience that had seemed disappointed by what it perceived as an insufficiently bellicose posture.  cn.nytimes.com/asia-pacific/20220808/china-exercises-taiwan/zh-hant/dual/
BBC, 2022-8-9 this may possibly intimidate South East Asian neighbours which have rival claims to the South China Sea   bbc.com/news/62460809
PS:New York Times, 2022-8-7: After China's Military Spectacle, Options Narrow for Winning Over Taiwan  ; Reuters, 2022-8-7: The ability to enforce a blockade would give Beijing leverage to bring Taiwan to the negotiating table ;A former Chinese defence official :"Seeing how the U.S. and its allies responded to the drills, how confident can Taiwan leaders be in counting on them to come to the rescue should the PLA attack?"

 

CNN, 2022-6-1: China has the power to take Taiwan, but it would cost an extremely bloody price ...China is more likely to emulate the "shock and awe" bombardments that preceded the US' invasions of Iraq. Daily Express (UK), 2022-5-30: Putin is winning his war, China Taiwan is next and that will be so much deadlier   New York Times, 2022-5-27: A 2018 congressionally-mandated assessment warned that America could face a “decisive military defeat” in a war over Taiwan NY Times, 2022-5-24: the US is trying to walk a fine line between deterrence and provocation... risk pushing President Xi Jinping of China to order an attack on Taiwan NY Times, 2022-5-24: Former presidents have hinted that the United States would fight for Taiwan but have otherwise remained studiedly vague...Taiwan's defense budget... remains scandalously low   New York Times, 2022-5-7: US presses Taiwan to buy missiles and smaller arms for asymmetric warfare (Suited to Win Against China);  But some Taiwanese defense officials are resistant. Guardian, 2022-4-24: ... waiting will only allow Taiwan to improve readiness and build support... The risks of sleepwalking into conflict may well be growing  Economist, 2022-4-20: the main lesson that China will draw from Ukraine is the need for speed—ideally achieving victory within days; Taiwan can learn ...Fighting spirit and the right Western arms may stymie a powerful foe  Bloomberg, 2022-4-21: Putin's Struggles in Ukraine May Embolden Xi on Taiwan...use overwhelming force Taipei Times, 2022-4-25: Richard D. Fisher, Jr.: Xi likely will not repeat Putin’s failure at the outset to use his new very low-yield nuclear weapons to devastate Ukrainian resistance   Wall street Journal, 2022-4-18: Kyiv's successful use of internet to counter Moscow highlights Taiwan's reliance on undersea internet cables that China could cut  Daily Mail, 2022-4-10: China accelerates work on more than one HUNDRED missile  silos that could house nuclear weapons capable of reaching U.S. soil -  to deter America from intervening in conflict over Taiwan   Wall street Journal, 2022-3-29: Moves under discussion in Taiwan are still far from the kind of major revamp that some experts in the U.S. and elsewhere say is needed to upgrade Taiwan's military   New York Times, 2022-3-20: If Russia succeeds in overtaking Ukraine, it increases the danger for Taiwan.   full text

 

Is Taiwan willing to fight for itself ?

New York Times, 2021-8-16: Biden: American troops cannot and should not be fighting in a war and dying in a war that Afghan forces are not willing to fight for themselves.

Taiwanese army L.A. Times, 2022-3-20: over much of the last decade, Taiwan moved in the opposite direction: It cut the size of its regular army and reduced the training of its reserves.
Economist, 2022-4-23: The infantry's strongest skills,... are “painting walls, picking grass and falsifying documents”...
Financial Times (UK), 7-12-2020 : Politicians in Taiwan are even afraid to discuss these issues with the public because they believe Taiwanese are not willing to sacrifice...
 Foreign Policy, 2020-10-19 :  Given these electoral realities, Taiwan's leaders have gravitated toward military showpieces — while hoping that the United States will save the day if China ever attacks.  however, the United States may not be up to the task.
◆  Economist, 2022-3-5: Taiwanese seem too uninterested to fight to defend their land.  Taiwan's sloth in reforming its defence capabilities ...
imported wrong weapons L.A. Times, 2022-3-20: It invested in high-end weapons beloved by military brass, like F-16s and Abrams tanks, instead of more mundane tools that might deter a shipborne invader: antiaircraft weapons, anti-ship missiles and advanced mines.
Foreign Policy, 2020-10-19: Taiwan's advanced aircraft, ships, and tanks operating from large bases—precisely the kind of forces that China can now destroy with a surprise air and missile barrage. 
NBC, 2021-3-27: Taiwan's air force is wiped out within minutes.
Economist 2022-4-23: American critics question the billions being spent on expensive systems, ... many of the high-end weapons will be quickly destroyed or rendered ineffective.
Taiwan needs lots of asymmetric mobile defense weapons.

Taiwan's weapons
 
Taiwan has been developing some military planes, ships ... udn.com/news/story/7338/6254658?from=udn-catehotnews_ch2
Forbes 2021-4-19: for AIDC, is it worth it to spend extra billions on planes that might get blown up on the ground five minutes after war breaks out? 

 

 

Taiwan VS. US's "porcupine"  weapons

The US disagrees Taiwan's requests for big-ticket weapons


Economist, 2022-5-10:
These flashier purchases are politically popular... Some of Taiwan’s political and military leaders believe it is more important to counter such “grey zone” attacks than to prepare for an invasion. A full-scale assault has long been hypothetical, after all, while incursions have increased every year
WEEK (UK), 2022-5-12: Taiwan plans to “throw a thousand tanks at the beachhead” in the event of a Chinese invasion that could result in “brutal tank battles”

United Dialy (Taiwan), 2022-5-19 : Can the guerrillas of Stinger missiles and Javelin missiles really block the Russian main force in Ukraine?

  The China Times (Taiwan), 2021-10-26 : Urban guerrilla warfare will turn cities into ruins and cause a large number of civilian casualties
Foreign Policy, 2020-8-20 : “Their underlying thinking is that PLA has grown to be too strong for us to fight militarily anyway... Taiwan should just focus on putting up a good show of being tough, buy enough U.S. weapons for display, and pray that Americans come to our rescue

Financial Times, 2022-5-17: Washington was right to push Taipei to focus procurement more on the threat of invasion, but that forcing its hand was counterproductive.

 

New York Times, 2022-5-7: US presses Taiwan to buy missiles and smaller arms for asymmetric warfare (Suited to Win Against China);  But some Taiwanese defense officials are resistant.
FoxNews, 2022-5-12: Taiwan may not have military equipment to defend itself against Chinese invasion warns Rep. McCaul
Politico, 2022-5-11: The Biden administration is rebuffing some of Taiwan’s requests for big-ticket weapons,...these expensive items, while fine for peacetime operations, would not survive an all-out assault from the mainland.
Economist, 2022-5-10: expensive conventional equipment such as tanks, battleships and submarines — are hard to hide and easy to strike with a missile a "porcupine" strategist would focus on agile and concealable weapons
Politico, 2022-5-19: the U.S. effort to reshape Taiwan’s military has taken on new urgency since the Russian invasion...the administration would no longer support arms sales for Taiwan “outside their definition of ‘asymmetric’ defense,”
WSJ , 2022-5-8: F-16s Are the Wrong Way for Taiwan to Defend Itself
National Interest, 2022-5-15: One important task has been to tailor the provision of defensive weapons to the needs of Taiwan’s military—procuring Stingers and Javelins rather than Abrams tanks and Seahawk helicopters.
Foreign Policy , 2020-10-19 : Taiwan's leaders have gravitated toward military showpieces
Diplomat, 10-5-2020: Taiwan needs mobile systems,long-range surveillance armed drones...

 

TIME, 2022-3-18: most analysts say that the island would not be able to stop a full-scale invasion on its own—and Ukraine's situation has sparked debate over whether anyone would come to Taiwan's aid   Politico, 2022-3-14: Taiwan's military may be rightly criticized for its poorly coordinated forces, and its government has been hesitant to invest in its own defense...PLA would be more motivated than the Russian forces...China’s deep integration into the global economy and the leverage of Beijing's $1,068 billion in treasury bonds would make Western sanctions more painful to implement Economist, 2022-3-5:  Taiwanese seem too uninterested to fight to defend their land.  Taiwan's sloth in reforming its defence capabilities and strengthening its deterrence    Washington Post, 2022-3-4: Taiwan's leaders try to calm fears over Ukraine invasion, but citizens worry their island will be next    Economist, 2022-2-26:  Parallels with Taiwan colour Asian views of the war in Ukraine - Some fear a Chinese invasion has become more likely   New York Times, 2022-2-23: With some seeing parallels to Ukraine, Taiwan steps up its defenses  CNN, 2022-2-3: China's leaders may be watching Ukraine with an eye on Taiwan USA Today, Yahoo, 2022-2-10, "Chinese Taipei" , the label implies a link to China... younger people have said they feel increasingly distant culturally from the other side. Brookings, 2022-2-7: why is unification so unpopular in Taiwan? It's the PRC political system; A majority of our respondents — 56% — said Taiwanese culture was similar to Chinese culture.  72% rated China's government as at least somewhat unfriendly.  Washington Post, 2022-1-24: Defending Taiwan is a worthy goal. But are we ready for heavy casualties? it would be a grave mistake for the United States to promise to defend Taiwan without preparing its public — and its soldiers — for the tough fight they could face ◆ New York post, 2022-1-21: Rep. Michael McCaul predicts Chinese invasion of Taiwan after Winter Olympics   New York times, 2022-1-19: China's Growing Menace Hardens Island's Identity  ◆ France24, NY Post, Daily Mail(UK), 2021-12-30: China warns US will pay 'unbearable price' for backing Taiwan NY Times, 2021-12-10: As China has built up its military presence, the U.S. has sought to widen its alliances in the region. A major potential flash point is Taiwan Times (UK), 2021-12-10: The US won’t fight to save Taiwan or Ukraine   full text

 



What Should The US Do If China Invades Taiwan ?   TIPP Poll  2022-3-2 ~ 3-4, 1318 adults, online survey

  come to defense of Taiwan
directly via MILITARY action
economic sanctions combination of military action
 and economic sanctions
allow China to take Taiwan not sure
overall 14% 27% 23% 6% 29%
Democrats 15 33 22 6 24
Republicans 16 27 27 n/a 25
Independents 11 22 24 9 34
Conservatives 17 27 28 6 21
Moderates 12 26 19 6 36
Liberals 15% 32% 25% 5% 22%
19fortyfive.com/2022/04/a-chinese-invasion-of-taiwan-what-response-would-americans-support/     TIPP Insights

 

 


  Intro.  of  Taiwan :
 

"We call ourselves the Republic of China, Taiwan", president Tsai has told BBC UK at Jan. 15, 2020, but later BBC changed it to "the Republic of China (Taiwan)".  This self-governing island country