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Key points   ──   Taiwan is ... ?

a country of democracy? Reporters Without Borders (RSF) Director General (2024-10-20, by CNA): "credibility deficit" is "a real Achilles heel of Taiwanese democracy"; Reuters Institute for the Study of Journalism: Only 33 % of respondents said they trusted most news most of the time. 
WSWS.org (USA), 2025-1-6: Ko W.J. MD, the founder and chair of Taiwan's 2nd largest opposition party (TPP), questioned “Does Taiwan have democracy?”─  Taiwanese politics was dominated by corporations and political parties.
a country of corruption? The Diplomat  (2024-9-11): Corruption and patronage are “in the DNA” of local politics.  Almost all  [high-level] politicians come from local politics",  "A bottom-up spoils system is thus cultivated"...
 independent judiciary? War On The Rocks (2024-9-20): Washington observers might worry that Taiwan's president Lai Ching-te is undermining the independence of the judicial system.
Country Reports on Human Rights Practices , 2024-4-22 :   Some political commentators and academics, publicly questioned the impartiality of judges and prosecutors involved in high profile, politically sensitive cases.
TaiwanPlus (2023-3-6): a majority said they believed prosecutors engage in corruption behaviour when handling cases.
a free country? Global Times (2022-12-19) : There are forces on the island of Taiwan are mentally controlling Taiwan people.
an independent country ? National Interest (2024-7-20) :  Taiwan out to be less of a sovereign state in need of help, and more a vassal state to America.

EurAsian Times (2020-7-9): Taiwan (The Tsai Ing-wen authority) turns to Washington and is willing to be used... Taiwan Now Under "Deep Control" Of The US. (Tsai Ing-wen, Taiwan president 2016~2024)

The Taiwan Research Institute, Xiamen University  professor Zheng Jian:  Lai Ching-te (Taiwan president 2024~2028) is compelled to pledge loyalty to the US during his brief "stopover" .   by  Global Times , 2024-12-6

a country of free expression ? The minister of National Defense : whoever's messages or words are to our disadvantage and to the opposite side's advantage,  for our initial judgment, will be sent to  the prosecution/police and investigation.  Going through a long time legal process leads to chilling effect which is the rulers want.  (「任何訊息、言論對我不利,對對方有利,初步就認為是在地協力者」啟動檢調警國家機器,足以收震懾威嚇之效;再經司法程序一路折騰,即使還其清白,也已被剥掉幾層皮。只准報喜不許唱憂,正是統治者要的寒蟬效應!)  chinatimes.com/opinion/20240312004516-262101?chdtv   udn.com/news/story/7338/7836324?from=udn-catehotnews_ch2  March 2024
infancy military Financial Times (UK), 2024-7-21:“People don't realise the stage of infancy the military is in". 

National Interest (2023-7-16) :  Taiwanese President   announced  a plan to extend the compulsory conscription program but received  backlash  from younger Taiwanese.  Roll Call (2022-9-28):  Most people do not want to join the military...

for details ...  pls. see links above

 

 

 

                
pic: This websites-group was ranked No.1  
"review Taiwan"  on US Google, 2021-9-21, 2021-8-1, 4-16-2021, 1-20-2021, 10-10-2020, 3-4-2020, 5-2-2019, 5-23-2019,
3-8-2019; No.2 at 2022-2-22

 

 

 

China - Taiwan  War

◆    Washington Post, 2025-1-17 Taiwan is entering a period of political upheaval that could hinder its combat readiness; The two parties (KMT, TPP) that hold the majority in parliament are calling for substantial cuts, including to defense spending; Debates over defense — “whether to increase the military budget or pay a ‘protection fee’ to Trump” — are being “turned into battlegrounds for partisan conflict”Trump has declined to give Biden's promise, instead calling for Taipei to pay for U.S. protection.
◆   Council on Foreign Relations,   2025-1-15 A top concern among U.S. security analysts is that China's growing military capabilities and assertiveness, as well as the deterioration in cross-strait relations, could spark a conflict that leads to a U.S.-China confrontation.
◆   Financial Times, 2025-1-13 Taiwan's long stretches of the coast comprise cliffs, reefs and rocks, while the flatter western seaboard is lined with mudflats.  China building new mobile piers could help possible Taiwan invasionBut military experts said a Chinese invasion force would still struggle to advance through Taiwan's western plains, which are densely packed with paddy fields, fish ponds and urban sprawl, with wide roads often hard to reach from shore.
◆   Bloomberg,   2025-1-14

Taiwan's military is  not  prepared  for a Trumpian  World; With the former president soon back in the White House, Taipei needs to rethink its defense strategy. 

◆   The Hill, 2025-1-7 a professor at Brown University said the cost of a war with China is “incalculable” and would at the very least sow mass destruction in Taiwan and the South China Sea region;  the U.S. should avoid a war over Taiwan, arguing it amounts to a civil war dispute and, for the U.S., a moral conundrum more than a national security risk.
◆   Financial Times, 2025-1-5 Taiwan suspects a Chinese-owned ship of cutting a subsea cable off its northern coast.

Taipei is concerned that such “greyzone” operations, below the threshold of war, will make it harder to defend against aggression that could eventually escalate to an outright attack.

ps:  Politico Europe (2025-1-5): Taiwan has experienced several dozen incidents of damage to its underwater telecom cables in recent years, without being able to definitively identify the source of the attacks, and has appealed to the European Union for help.

◆  Wall Street Journal,   2025-1-3 In addition to unleashing its full military power, Beijing would be expected to use a variety of economic strategies in a showdown over Taiwan. A 2023 study by Rhodium Group and the Atlantic Council concluded that Beijing has been more systematic in preparing such defenses than Russia was to counter Western sanctions.
◆  Washington Post,   2025-1-1 Xi's New Year speech:  "No one can sever our blood ties, and no one can stop the historical trend of the reunification of the motherland!"
◆  Washington Examiner,   2025-1-1 The quantity and quality of munitions to deter a Chinese invasion of Taiwan has fallen as they have been diverted to Ukraine. The sooner the war in Ukraine ends, the sooner American forces can rearm in the Pacific. While Taiwan's 2.5% of GDP spent on defense is impressive compared to many European nations, it is nowhere near what is needed in a nation at the front line of conflict.
◆  New York Times,   2024-12-31 Without a plan, a Taiwan crisis risks undermining the foundations of American prosperity and security. As a report from a House panel concluded last year: "The United States lacks a contingency plan for the economic and financial impacts of conflict" with China.  Imposing sweeping sanctions on China would undermine the international economic system that the United States is uniquely positioned to protect.
◆   USNI News, 2024-12-19 The Pentagon's report recognizes that China has “both the will and capability to alter the international order in its favor”;  but Xi Jinping's goal of having his military ready to carry out a “short, sharp invasion” of Taiwan by 2027 “is not possible right now”; the force has not yet demonstrated the type and scale of sophisticated urban warfare or long-distance logistic capabilities that would likely be required for operations against Taiwan or major contingencies overseas”.
◆   Financial Times, 2024-12-13 US nuclear build-up would not help deter China from using atomic weapons in Taiwan, war game finds Unclassified exercise by CSIS and MIT suggests Washington should not go beyond current modernisation plans...  only five of 15 iterations of the nuclear game ended with a withdrawal of the PLA.
◆   Economist, 2024-12-5 American military officials have long worried about a “window of vulnerability” before new weapons enter into service in the 2030s.  But corruption in the PLA is changing the calculations of analysts; China's economic woes and social discontent mean that Mr Xi is turning inward.

The views (the period of greatest danger has probably been pushed out for several years) are not universally shared, in or out of government.  “Xi has his foot firmly on the accelerator and a full tank of gas".

◆   VOX, 2024-12-16 a majority of Taiwanese and US national security experts do not believe China currently has the capability to carry out an amphibious invasion of Taiwan, most do believe China could currently enact either a blockade or a quarantine of the island. And such an operation may prove just as effective while carrying far less risk for Beijing.
◆   Breaking Defense,   2024-12-6 The head of the Defense Intelligence Agency: China did appear to be on track to meet Xi's 2027 preparedness goal.
House intel's Himes: You could implement a blockade. You know, what? If you invade Taiwan, what happens? A. You may lose. B. You may reduce the place to smoking rubble, what have you really achieved economically?
◆   Newsweek,   2024-11-20 U.S. Pacific Commander Samuel Paparo:  a cross-strait invasion executed by the Chinese military would be "exceedingly difficult" given the advantages of the U.S. and allies.
◆  Washington Examiner,   2024-12-4 Chinese leaders have said they want their military to be prepared to invade Taiwan by 2027, though U.S. defense leaders have said the date does not guarantee a decision to carry out such an operation has been made. 
War with China would exhaust munition stockpiles "very rapidly",
national security adviser J. Sullivan acknowledged that China has "the single biggest advantage"
, "God forbid we end up in a full-scale war with the PRC" .

 

 Trump Won't Defend Taiwan

◆   National Interest, 2025-1-13 Why Trump Won't Defend Taiwan - Waging World War III for Taiwan—or any small nation, for that matter—would not be in keeping with the predilections and preferences of the incoming US president.
◆   The Telegraph, 2025-1-13 Donald Trump has appointed a number of hawkish foreign policy advisers to his transition team. However, he has pledged not to allow the US to become involved in foreign wars.
◆   Newsweek, 2025-1-3 Trump, who positioned himself as being tough on China, has suggested he would not defend Taiwan from China.

 

Taiwan Prepares for Trump's Return.

◆   CNN 2024-12-15 one thing's for sure: Trump is a less vocal supporter of Taiwan than Joe Biden. That's why Taiwan is buckling up for what could be a far more volatile relationship with Washington.  Trump's remarks have prompted jitters that Taiwan would need to move more of its critical chip supply chain to the US at a faster pace, that could affect the island's economic security and dismantle the very “silicon shield”  ...
◆   New York Times 2024-11-24 Trump couldn't care less about Taiwan...  Maybe he will strike some sort of bargain with Taiwan. But whatever Taiwan can offer him, Beijing can easily top.  More and more, there are those in Taiwan who say we are an “abandoned chess piece,” no longer valued by the United States.  China amplifies these fears...
◆   Wall Street Journal 2024-11-18 Some in Taiwan say its survival as a self-ruled democracy is at stake, that it can't afford to spend what Trump demands on defense and that it would wither in the crossfire of a U.S.-China trade war.
 Taiwan's military spending is currently at 2.45% of GDP—a lower share than Singapore's 2.8% and South Korea's 2.7%;  In Washington, the percent of GDP is really seen as a proxy for your seriousness.
◆   Fox News 2024-11-10 Trump's public comments might suggest that he would not be willing to put boots on the ground to face another global superpower in defense of a tiny island democracy (Taiwan).   there is hope among restraint groups that Trump will be focused on economic warfare with China – rather than military.   "We don't have that alliance with Taiwan, ... the Taiwan issue is a powder keg — it's exceedingly dangerous. "
◆   New York Times 2024-11-10 Tump's call for Taiwan to spend more on its own defense and his complaints about its semiconductor dominance may herald a tenser relationship.
◆   Business Insider 2024-11-9 In 2025, Taiwan will have to contend with uncertainty on whether the US will protect it, or play it.
◆   New York Times 2024-11-6 Some diplomats expect China to intensify pressure on Taiwan, if not invade Taiwan; and China may calculate that Mr. Trump would not go to war for a democracy that he has accused of “stealing” the microchip industry from the US.  “With Donald Trump, there are large amounts of uncertainty,” said Lev Nachman, a political scientist,  “And it's a matter of uncertainty that comes with great risk for Taiwan.”
◆   Washington Post 2024-11-6 Trump's statements this year that raise doubt about his willingness to come to the island democracy's defense and his misleading assertion that Taipei needs to pay the US for defense. Such rhetoric could “fan the flames of skepticism” ...
◆   New York Times 2024-11-6,  news briefing Trump could decide to do the true “America First” thing and withdraw completely, and basically say,  "defending Taiwan is not in our interest.” ...
◆   Bloomberg 2024-11-5 Taiwan's Economic Affairs Minister acknowledged that Trump could introduce measures that might prove harmful for Taiwan's semiconductor industry. But the impact will not be as severe as some anticipate.
◆  Reuters,  2024-11-6 Trump might try to use the Taiwan issue as a bargaining chip to gain leverage in other areas, such as offering to restrain Taiwan's provocative actions in exchange for Beijing's compromise on trade.

 

 

◆  Chicago Council on Global Affairs , 2024-10-8: Should China invade, Americans support ... ?
If China were to invade Taiwan, would you support or oppose the United States: (% support)
yr. 2024 2023 2022
Using the US military to airlift food and medical supplies to Taiwan 74% 78  
Imposing economic and diplomatic sanctions on china 72% 75 76
Sending additional arms and military supplies to the Taiwanese government 59% 62 65
Sending US troops to Taiwan to help the Taiwanese gov. defend itself against China 36% 39 40

 

Taiwanese are ready for fighting ??

Fox News, 2024-10-4: the Taiwanese representative to the U.S. is warning that China has ramped up its aggression toward the island, and that its people are ready to fight. Washington Post (2024-8-4) “Taiwan's reservists are going to be mobilizing where the fight is happening, when the fight is happening” . The island is patently not ready for that.
National Interest (2024-8-29): the Taiwanese are not well prepared for the kind of attack that China is plotting.
War On The Rocks, 2024-3-21:  Taipei has not made the necessary preparations.
Fox News, 2024-10-4: the Taiwanese representative to the U.S. suggested they would be eagerly accepted if (help from U.S. troops) offered. "If your house is under fire, and they respond to help you with a bucket of water, would you say no?" War On The Rocks, 2024-5-15: Zelensky's now-famous refusal —”I need ammunition, not a ride”  —  But Taiwan will almost certainly be asking potential allies to engage in a direct military intervention.

 

China's strategy to achieve its political objective of unification

  Brookings, 2024-9-16 Beijing has developed two different means—military and coercive—to achieve its political objective of unification.To subdue Taiwan without running the risks of war, the PRC is using economic, political, judicial, diplomatic, informational, cyber, and “gray zone” military tactics... seeks to deplete the confidence of the people brookings.edu/articles/why-does-the-us-security-partnership-with-taiwan-matter/
Politico, 2024-9-11 Nearly three in four Americans are concerned about a potential invasion of Taiwan, according to the latest Reagan National Defense Survey. And, Washington has fixated on a potential 2027 invasion scenario.  China's strategy to annex Taiwan is more about cyber power than firepower

 

New York Times, 2024-7-16: many Taiwanese officials are convinced that their island will be vulnerable unless it quickly steps up preparedness. The upcoming presidential election in the United States adds another element of unpredictability to the tensions. National Interest, 2024-7-13: Taiwan and its partners needed to find a steady path, avoiding both complacency and hysteria. President Biden should reverse course and reiterate the stated policy of ambiguity Financial Times, 2024-7-10: Experts warn that Taiwan remains woefully underprepared for war.

The US defends Taiwan ?

TIME, 2024-6-4 Asked by Time magazine whether The US might involve boots on the ground, US President Joe Biden said, "It would depend on the circumstances""we are not seeking independence for Taiwan nor will we in fact, not defend Taiwan if they if, if China unilaterally tries to change the status...Not ruling out using US military force. There's a distinction between deploying on the ground, air power and naval power, etc"
The Australian, 2024-6-4 ‘It depends’: Biden wavers on Taiwan defence

 

  Wall Street Journal, 2024-6-2: The U.S. is getting China's calculations wrong.  The assumptions are :China won’t invade unless provoked, and that China still needs to get its military built to attack. but China is determined to subvert and manipulate the island's politics. 

 

 

 

 The websites-group ranks No.1  "introduction to Taiwan" on Bing at  2024-7-11, 2024-5-12, 2024-5-1, 2024-4-14, 2024-1-4, 2023-12-24, 2023-11-11, 2023-11-1, 2023-10-10, 2023-9-1, 2023-8-22, 2023-8-8, 2023-7-25, 2023-7-1, 2023-5-31, 2023-4-30, 2023-3-31, 2023-3-23, 2023-3-4, 2023-2-1, 2023-1-22, 2023-1-15, 2023-1-1, 2022-12-17, 2022-6-24, 2022-5-14,  2022-4-30, 2021-11-21, 2021-10-21, 2021-9-21, 2021-8-5, 2021-6-15, 2021-6-2, 2021-5-13, 2021-4-18, 3-3-2021, 1-29-2021, 01-01-2021, 12-6-2020, 11-29-2020, 11-11-2020, 10-25-2020, 8-5-2020, 8-2-2020, 7-6-2020, 6-21-2020, 6-11-2020, 6-5-2020, 5-21-2020, 5-12-2020, 5-8-2020, 4-20-2020, 4-10-2020, 3-20-2020, 2-24-2020,1-27-2020, 1-15-2020, 12-25-2019, 12-16-2019,11-6-2019, 10-6-2019, 9-17-2019, 8-3-2019,  7-29-2019, 6-27-2019,  4-29-2019; This websites group was ranked No.2 "introduction to Taiwan" on Bing, 2022-10-4, 2022-4-9, 2022-3-25, 2022-3-14, 2022-2-22, 2021-12-4 No.3 at 2022-10-23, 2022-9-5; No.1 "introduction to Taiwan" on Lycos, 2023-1-15, 2023-1-1

 

 

 

China's largest-ever war games around Taiwan

◆  Fox News,   2024-12-23 Taiwan defense officials raised concerns about a substantial deployment of Chinese naval ships and military planes, saying the build-up could eventually lead to war as tensions continue to rise in the region.
China warns US to stop arming Taiwan after Biden approves $571M in military aid
◆  EuroNews,   2024-12-11 "They were practicing to seal off Taiwan” , referring to a scenario whereby the Chinese coast guard ships could block Taiwan's ports while the navy would form an outer barrier at sea.

Asked whether he would commit to defending Taiwan against potential Chinese aggression, Trump told NBC “I never say, because I have to negotiate things, right?"  “We talked about other things” ,“But I have a very good relationship, and I hope he doesn't do it"

◆  New York Times,   2024-12-10 Taiwan says China has deployed largest fleet of ships in decades, which could block American allies in the region  from coming to Taiwan's defense.  Speculation had been growing for days that China would launch war games in retaliation for visits made by Lai Ching-te to Hawaii and Guam last week; The surge in Chinese ships could also be a signal to the incoming Trump administration, which has yet to indicate how it will deal with Taiwan.
◆  Fox News,   2024-12-10 After Taiwanese president visits Hawaii and Guam, Chinese military makes massive deployment around Taiwan to send 'very simple' message: "The Taiwan Strait is ours"; Taiwan defense officials are raising concerns ..., saying the build-up could eventually lead to war as tensions continue to rise in the area.
◆  AFP,   2024-12-11 Taiwan security official : the sea drills were "significantly larger" than Beijing's maritime response to then-US House speaker Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taipei in 2022, which was China's largest-ever war games around Taiwan.  China's massive maritime operation began in October were aimed at demonstrating that Beijing could choke off Taiwan and also to "draw a red line" ahead of the next US administration.
  Radio France Internationale, 2024-12-11 Hopes for 'reunification'    a fact of life on China's window to Taiwan

 

Taiwan's pres. Lai flies to US, angering China

◆  CNN,   2024-12-1 Taiwan's President Lai Ching-te in Hawaii: A stopover that speaks volumes. Taiwanese security agencies anticipate that Beijing will respond with military drills near Taiwan. Taiwan does largely pay for its defense, through billions of dollars spent on US-made weapons. And unlike Japan, South Korea and the Philippines, it is not shielded by a mutual defense treaty with the United States.
◆  Wall Street Journal,   2024-12-1 Taiwan's President begins Hawaii stopover and sends a firm but conciliatory message to both China and the incoming Trump administration: While Taipei doesn't seek a war with Beijing, it is counting on U.S. support to deter any aggression from its larger neighbor.  "Transits" are part of careful arrangements made between Washington and Taipei to allow its leaders to engage with each other on American soil after the two severed formal diplomatic ties in 1979.
◆  Global Times (China) , 2024-12-6 Lai Ching-te is compelled to pledge loyalty to the US during his brief "stopover," said Zheng Jian, a professor at the Taiwan Research Institute of Xiamen University.

 

Taiwan's new president William Lai's inauguration speech

L.A. Times, 2024-5-20
yahoo.com/news/taiwans-president-calls-peace-amid-145319105.html
Taiwan's new president calls for peace amid tenuous relations with China.  while Lai's remarks may reassure some foreign governments that he will not pursue formal independence for Taiwan, it did little to placate leaders in China.  Lai's inauguration speech largely telegraphed his plan to continue the same policies as Tsai ; He's trying to project an image of pragmatism and predictability
BBC, 2024-5-21
yahoo.com/news/stop-threatening-taiwan-president-william-060149657.html
China warned that the island's new leader "must seriously" consider the question of whether he wants peaceful development or confrontation.  Chinese state media even suggested he should be prosecuted for secession.  The 64-year-old also stuck closely to the formula used by his predecessor president Tsai; how Lai deals with Beijing will be the biggest question that will determine his presidency, especially as both sides have had no formal communication since 2016.
Reuters, 2024-5-21
yahoo.com/news/chinas-foreign-minister-calls-taiwans-102611047.html
Lai, like his predecessor Tsai Ing-wen, says only Taiwan's people can decide their future, rejecting Beijing's sovereignty claims.  Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi called Lai  "disgraceful" -  "The ugly acts of Lai Ching-te and others who betray the nation and their ancestors is disgraceful".
CNN, 2024-5-20  the DPP refused to endorse the so-called “1992 consensus” that both Taiwan and the mainland belong to “one China,” but with different interpretations of what that means. Beijing deems the tacit agreement a precondition for dialogue.
Politico, AP, 2024-5-20
yahoo.com/news/lai-ching-te-inaugurated-taiwan-024228911.html
 In 2017, he described himself as a “pragmatic worker for Taiwan's independence,” drawing Beijing's rebuke.  He has since softened his stance and now supports maintaining the status quo across the Taiwan Strait and the possibility of talks with Beijing.

 

Taiwan classifies the military move against intrusion as  "First strike"

EurAsian Times, 2024-3-10:Taiwan has authorized its commanders to use lethal military force on intruding Chinese warplanes that cross its aerial and maritime territorial borders. Classifying the military move as a “first strike,” ...Ministry of National Defense says “that if enemy aircraft or vessels intruded into Taiwan’s airspace or waters, then commanders are authorized to take appropriate measures to maintain national defense security when all other non-peaceful means fail.”  eurasiantimes.com/china-ill-prepared-to-annex-taiwan-top-pla-general/ United Daily (Taiwan), 2024-3-10: a group of China's fishing boats entered Taiwan's internal waters (6 nautical miles) and destroyed our fishing-net, but Taiwan was inactive about it.  udn.com/news/story/11091/7821748?from=udn_ch2cate6643sub11091_pulldownmenu_v2

 
western media Taiwan's presidential election
Economist, 2023-11-15 Taiwan's opposition parties unite... could lead to a significant relaxation of the island-state's defiant posture towards China
Washington Post, 2023-11-15 Taiwan's two main opposition parties, both of which have vowed to restart talks with China, announced a joint presidential ticket for January’s election in a deal that could bring a major political upset in the self-ruled island democracy.
Foreign Policy, 2023-11-15 in any case, support for the DPP has been fading ahead of January’s presidential elections. But voters in Taiwan tend to be lukewarm toward candidates seen as too pro-China, and the DPP still leads in several polls.
Bloomberg, 2023-11-15  a single opposition bid raises the likelihood of a government in Taipei more willing to accept China’s conditions for direct talks between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait.
TIME, 2023-11-15 A successful opposition alliance — no matter who is running as president — means it’s likely cross-strait tensions will improve
Financial Times, 2023-11-15 Taiwan’s opposition parties join forces for crucial presidential poll Deal sharply increases odds that ruling Democratic Progressive party will lose election; Beijing has denounced Lai as a separatist and framed the presidential race as a choice between war and peace — rhetoric sometimes echoed by the opposition.
Reuters, 2023-11-15 Some opinion polls have shown that if Hou and Ko teamed up, in whatever combination, they would beat Lai Tamkang University scholar: The U.S. and China both want stabilised Taiwan Strait relations. Lai may not be the ideal person for this

 

US defends Taiwan ?

The Hill, 2023-9-26

During a Tokyo interview alongside Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, Biden repeated his statement on defending Taiwan: “That’s the commitment we made.” But, when asked whether “the policy of strategic ambiguity towards Taiwan [is] dead,” he replied “No.”
  National Review, 2023-9-19 It's noteworthy that Biden declined to say a single word about Taiwan in his U.N. speech came a day after the Chinese Communist Party's armed forces sent 103 jets into Taiwan’s air-defense identification zone — which is a new record that surpasses even the Chinese tantrum that followed then–House speaker Pelosi's visit to Taiwan.

 

  Report to Congress on Taiwan Defense Military Issues
news.usni.org/2023/09/26/report-to-congress-on-taiwan-defense-military-issues

Advantages  including geography and climate.
Challenges (1)  the PLA now is able, or will soon be able, to execute a range of military campaigns against Taiwan.
(2) 
Civil-military relations are strained... The archipelago's energy, food, water, internet, and other critical infrastructure systems are vulnerable to external disruption.  Taiwan's civil defense preparedness is insufficient, and Taiwan's military struggles to recruit, retain, and train personnel.  At a societal level, it is not clear what costs in terms of economic security, safety and security, and lives Taiwan's people would be willing or able to bear
.

 

resolve contrasts
Chinese military  Taiwan's military
The Guardian, 2023-8-7: the more dramatic parts of China's documentary on Taiwan invasion are pledges by PLA soldiers from various divisions to give up their lives in a potential attack on Taiwan.   ── “If the conditions were too difficult to safely remove the naval mines in actual combat, we would use our own bodies to clear a safe pathway for our [landing] forces,” said  a frogman; “fighter jet would be the last missile rushing towards the enemy" said a pilot.   .theguardian.com/world/2023/aug/07/chinese-soldiers-pledge-to-sacrifice-their-lives-in-documentary-on-taiwan-invasion  Associated Press Wall Street Journal, 2023-7-5: The professionalism and motivation of Taiwan's military are a particular concern, ... “A lot of young people who signed up for the four-year volunteer force decided to pay a penalty and dropped out early because they say they had come for the money—not to fight and not to die"wsj.com/articles/taiwan-china-ukraine-russia-hong-kong-military-war-517b87d?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo    Yaroslav Trofimov    Joyu Wang

 

Fox News, 2023-7-28  
The coming China war over Taiwan - The US should fight alongside allies, not in their place

a critical question – is Taiwan committed to its own defense? There are multiple indications that the answer is no.
perhaps most alarmingly, some Taiwanese youth, it turns out, are reluctant to die for their country.Research in 2018: Large numbers of young Taiwanese were "apathetic toward the military and averse to service." 
Biden must show leadership now, before it’s too late, and force Taiwan to participate much more in its own defense...
foxnews.com/opinion/coming-china-war-over-taiwan-needs-american-leadership-before-too-late   Rebekah Koffler

 

 

Taiwan could soon be under US nuclear protection?

Sky News (Australia), 2023-5-28 Analysts warn the  ‘nuclear umbrella’ agreement could be globally catastrophic as it would mean the US could use nuclear weapons if Taiwan was attacked. skynews.com.au/world-news/united-states/taiwan-could-soon-be-under-us-nuclear-protection/video/732789a9ca7ee4de4c33a614a6a24c35
SCMP (Hong Kong), 2023-5-28 John Mearscheimer (U. Chicago):It would send a clear message to Beijing that "if they are to attack Taiwan, it will escalate to the nuclear level"Chang Yen-ting: "Taiwan's priority should be to get more advanced and effective weapons instead of seeking to be incorporated into the nuclear umbrella,"  a security analyst at the National Policy Foundation, says until today, the US has not entirely committed to using nuclear weapons to help defend South Korea in the event of a nuclear attack from North Korea."    msn.com/en-xl/news/other/us-nuclear-umbrella-for-taiwan-solid-cross-strait-shield-or-wishful-thinking/ar-AA1bMtGS
EurAsian Times, 2023-5-26 There has also not been any statement or reaction from either the Department of State, Department of Defense, or the White House on the statement from Joseph Wu. This implies the US has no plans to defend Taiwan using nuclear weapons.  eurasiantimes.com/taiwan-eyes-us-nuclear-umbrella-to-deter-chinese-invasion/   Parth Satam
Benzinga, 2023-5-29 Xi Jinping 'Unlikely' To Go Nuclear On Taiwan Amid Taipei's Bid For US Umbrella: Defense Experts, given the radiation spillover problem and the proximity of Taiwan to the Chinese mainland," 

 

World's Best Hospitals 2023
by Newsweek
comparison among Asia's countries

newsweek.com/rankings/worlds-best-hospitals-2023

Asia's rank

country

total number of top 250  hospitals

1 Japan 18
2 S. Korea 18
3 Australia 7
4 Singapore 5
5 Israel 3
6 India 3
7 Thailand 1
8 UAE 1
9 Taiwan 1
Asia's China, etc are not included in survey list - 28 countries
Taiwan's NTU Hospital ranks No. 249 in Newsweek's top 250 list

 
Why is Taiwan behind ?

(1) Taiwan got highest CovID death rate in Asia and entire world several times.
/  "Medicine should be prescribed but not prescribed, medicine should be taken but not taken" bad record of "failure to administer CovID remedy/medicine in time" Bloomberg, 2021-7-25: Taiwan's medical care system is also run on a tight budget to keep costs affordable Newsweek: These are challenging times for hospitals. COVID-19 put unprecedented stress on health systems.

(2) Not patient-centered /  not easy to register clinic and emergency, 7-10 waiting days to be hospitalized, 2-5 minutes for clinic diagnosis, shortage of some excellent medicines and newest equipments, number MDs per 10000 is very low, turnover rate of the nurses is high,
some chronic disease items score very low, poor internationalization, no value privacy, medical dispute,  problem of rural patients and the disadvantaged...

 

  "Taiwan's midterms"
Wall Street Journal, 2022-11-28: Taiwan Ruling Party's election drubbing could ease tension with China and persuade Chinese leaders that they can peacefully influence politics there.  
 

CNN, 2022-11-27: Taiwan's President billed midterms as all about China. The pro-independence DPP's losses come as a heavy blow for Tsai as she had tried to frame the election – as a way to send a message against Beijing's rising bellicosity toward the island.   edition.cnn.com/2022/11/27/asia/taiwan-election-analysis-intl-hnk/index.html

 DPP-friendly mass media FTV (民視, 2022-11-28, 2022-11-27; ftvnews.com.tw/video/detail/h0489vFQzf4,  youtube.com/watch?v=2Nn4iEsCHGA, etc ) analyzed that one main factor causing DPP drubbed in local vote is war fears, which is why " Taiwan president strategy 'resist China and defend Taiwan' backfires" (Reuters, 2022-11-27).
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Biden "U.S. forces, U.S. men and women would defend Taiwan"  (CBS,2022-9-18)
 CNN (US), 2022-9-20 looks like the US has moved from ambiguity to deterrence...  Biden's remarks don't necessarily equate to how he would behave in a real crisis. edition.cnn.com/2022/09/19/world/joe-biden-taiwan-answer-analysis/index.html  
Bloomberg, 2022-9-20 “Such comments will do more to feed Beijing's sense of urgency than they will bolster deterrence” Taiwan's leaders could move closer to independence — U.S. allies like Japan or South Korea will almost certainly be made more uneasy... risks pulling them into a war    msn.com/en-us/news/world/biden-s-vow-to-defend-taiwan-makes-us-policy-shift-explicit/ar-AA123qxX
Japan Times (Japan), 2022-9-20 Cornell prof. called Biden's remarks “dangerous",  this new combo (a pledge to send troops + decisions about independence are Taiwan’s) suggests an unconditional commitment, U.S. is issuing Taiwan a blank check japantimes.co.jp/news/2022/09/20/asia-pacific/politics-diplomacy-asia-pacific/biden-taiwan-remarks-uncertainty/
Washington Examiner (US),
2022-9-
20
wrong to commit to Taiwan's defense unambiguously,  two key concerns here. (1) Taiwan's defense spending remains ludicrously low in face of the existential threat it faces. (2) It's one thing to tell a pollster that you're willing to fight and die for your country. It's a different thing to take painstaking steps to prepare for that eventuality. And the hard truth is that far too few Taiwanese are currently taking those steps msn.com/en-us/news/world/the-two-problems-with-bidens-taiwan-defense-pledge/ar-AA120KGw
 Politico, 2022-9-19 The big question is, what are the costs we're really willing to pay?” Stanford's Skylar Mastro said. politico.com/news/2022/09/19/biden-leaves-no-doubt-strategic-ambiguity-toward-taiwan-is-dead-00057658
Washington Post, 2022-9-19 Yet presidential pronouncements alone can only deter China so much... Congress should provide Mr. Biden and his successors with a stronger set of legislative instructions washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/09/19/biden-china-taiwan-60-minutes/
Washington Post (US), 2022-9-19 Biden’s most hawkish comments on Taiwan yet  /  The implications for that are huge. This is still in the realm of the hypothetical   washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/09/19/biden-taiwan-china-defense/
Global Times (CHN) , 2022-9-19 his most explicit answer so far on the question, which analysts believe suggested a shifting process in Washington's decades-long "strategic ambiguity" policy  ...not only his personal views, but also those in his White House team and various political forces on Capitol Hill.  China clearly knows that the US is trying to erode its "one-China policy." If the US moves further toward such "strategic clarity" that is entirely targeted against the Chinese mainland and supports Taiwan's pro-independence behaviors, we will certainly have diplomatic, military and economic countermeasures for them, Xin said.   globaltimes.cn/page/202209/1275600.shtml 
The Conversation  (Australia),
2022-9-20
so does this support mean economic aid, supply of weapons or U.S. boots on the ground? China and Taiwan are left guessing if – and to what extent – the U.S. will be involved in any China-Taiwan conflict.    news.yahoo.com/biden-again-indicates-us-defend-181440760.html

DW (Germany), 2022-9-19 scholars: "it can lead to very different results than what Biden might be thinking he has the capacity to do,"," US "strategic ambiguity is becoming more strategic and less ambiguous." dw.com/en/biden-us-forces-would-defend-taiwan-if-china-invades/a-63166248
Le Monde (France), 2022-9-19 Alors que l’occupant de la Maison Blanche a tenu des propos forts sur le dossier taïwanais dimanche soir, la Chine a dénoncé « une grave violation de [son] engagement important à ne pas soutenir l’indépendance de Taïwan .   lemonde.fr/international/article/2022/09/19/joe-biden-affirme-que-les-etats-unis-defendraient-taiwan-en-cas-d-invasion-chinoise_6142183_3210.html
 France 24 (France), 2022-9-19  most explicit statement so far on the issue, something sure to anger Beijing.Biden's Asia policy czar, Kurt Campbell, has in the past rejected any move to "strategic clarity" over Taiwan, saying there were "significant downsides" to such an approachmsn.com/en-gb/news/world/biden-says-us-forces-would-defend-taiwan-if-china-invades/ar-AA11YIsO
Daily Express (UK), 2022-9-19 Bonnie Glaser: " if Mr Biden makes such pledges he needs the "capability" to back them up, If President Biden plans to defend Taiwan, then he should make sure the U.S. military has the capability to do so", “"Rhetorical support that isn't backed up by real capabilities is unlikely to strengthen deterrence express.co.uk/news/world/1671100/Joe-Biden-Taiwan-China-Xi-Jinping-CBS-Nancy-Pelosi-White-House-ont
Bloomberg (US), 2022-9-19 Expert Bonnie Glaser: China has long assumed that the US would intervene to defend Taiwan, so these statements don’t change PLA plans, Prof. Lev Nachman: The worry is that this will exacerbate Taiwan's current high-tension moment rather than reduce it.。” Bloomberg     msn.com/en-us/news/world/biden-says-us-would-defend-taiwan-from-unprecedented-attack/ar-AA11Yf55

 

No guarantee that U.S. military will hold the same view as Biden to defend Taiwan

Foreign Policy, Politico, 2022-10-2: Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin declined to directly endorse President Joe Biden’s statement that the U.S. military would defend Taiwan   politico.com/news/2022/10/02/lloyd-austin-china-taiwan-biden-00059922
The Hill, 2022-10-3: US defense chief sidesteps questions on Biden’s pledge to defend Taiwan news.yahoo.com/us-defense-chief-sidesteps-questions-200504858.html
VICE, 2022-9-28:  no guarantee that the next U.S. president will hold the same view as Biden, given the lack of a formal commitment by the U.S. military to intervene in the event of an attack by the PLA  vice.com/en/article/m7gp7v/taiwan-defense-china-invasion-conscripts

 

 

 
 

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