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◆  New York Times, 2023-10-16: Beijing is far less concerned with U.S. efforts to enhance its military posture in the region — the deterrence side of the equation — than with the political rhetoric, which is seen in China as proof ... supporting Taiwan's de facto independence.  ◆  Newsweek,  2023-10-12: Since war broke out in the Mideast, some with hawkish views in the U.S. have suggested that Taiwan needs to take its self-defense seriously ◆  VOA News,  2023-10-13: some Taiwanese citizens worry China could see an opportunity to attack Taiwan if Washington were to be dragged into the conflict in the Middle East. Lev Nachman said a Chinese attack on Taiwan in the coming days is unlikely.  ◆  BBC, 2023-10-5: Most analysts agree that Taiwan's military - a shrunken army, outnumbered navy and old artillery - would be no match against a far more powerful China. ◆  Washington Examiner, 2023-10-5: Were Taipei truly serious about deterring and defeating a PLA attack, it would be spending closer to 10% of its GDP on defense   ◆ full text

◆   The Daily Caller, 2023-9-24: China is on the fast track to wage war against Taiwan — and the US, experts say.  China has been preparing for the possibility of fighting the U.S. over Taiwan going back to around 1996 or 1997 after realizing Washington intended to preserve the status quo of Taiwan's semi-autonomy, experts explained. ◆    19FortyFive, 2023-9-20: China's military is preparing to invade Taiwan (And quite soon);  China's military has developed advanced methods for depriving the Americans of their vaunted advantage in space, threatening the US in the cyber domain, and possibly disrupting the electromagnetic (EM) spectrum to sabotage American forces  ◆  Chicago Tribune, AP, VOA News, 2023-9-2: Taiwan's government is racing to counter China, but many on the island say they don't feel the threat. That may be partly due to the nuanced views many Taiwanese hold of China.  Many say they are attracted to their much larger neighbor’s dynamic economy, and its shared language and culture. Others are simply numb to hearing about the threat in their backyard.  ◆ full text

◆ Council on Foreign Relations, 2023-8-30:  Taiwan Announced a Record Defense Budget: But most important, the proposed budget still falls far short of what the island should be investing in defense. Ironically, the smallest growth in Taiwan’s defense budget in half a decade is coming at a time when defense spending should be accelerating to confront the growing threat that Taiwan faces. In practice, Taiwan needs procuring more anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles, investing in rapid mining capabilities, developing drones and unmanned underwater vehicles, expanding domestic defense industrial capacity, and hardening critical infrastructure.◆ Washington Post, 2023-8-28 : Taiwanese voters could either fuel or dampen the mounting tensions. Their choice is between a ruling party determined to maintain Taiwan's political independence, and an opposition that sees closer ties with China as the only viable path.  ◆  Atlantic Council, 2023-8-23:  full-fledged invasion of the island would be difficult. But there are other scenarios, such as a blockade, that would paralyze life on the island and make a Chinese invasion a lot easier. In the event of a PRC invasion of the island, the West will come to Taiwan's aid, with the United States taking the lead, but the most important part should be done by the Taiwanese. We can’t be more Taiwanese than they are themselves.   ◆ full text

News brief:  ◆ Bloomberg, 2023-8-14:  Taiwan's Election Is All About War...  it's concerning that the opposition may not be able to coalesce behind one candidate. That's an election Lai (DPP Lai Ching-te) can win. ◆ New York Times, 2023-8-11: large-scale missile attacks or saturation attacks would likely overwhelm Taiwan's air defense systems.   A real fighting on the ground at the airport and using infantry forces imply that Taiwan had already lost the war in the air. "By the time , it will be, more or less, over"  ◆  European Council on Foreign Relations,2023-8-8:  the structures within the leadership are antiquated. The island state urgently needs modern civilian oversight of its military. ◆  New York Times, 2023-8-8: In the political debate, Taiwanese nationalists often emphasize the existence of the Indigenous groups as evidence that Taiwan has its unique origins, of which the Chinese culture is only a part... Even though the Indigenous groups make up only 2 percent of Taiwan's population, they’re an important part in the narrative of Taiwanese nationhood. ◆ New York Times, 2023-8-8:  the P.L.A. Rocket Force (which manages conventional and nuclear missiles ) being central to future conflicts  — is under a shadow.  This unexplained shake-up suggests suspicions of graft or other misconduct  ◆ JustSecurity.org, 2023-8-7: A recent Council on Foreign Relations task force report  about "U.S.-Taiwan Relations in a New Era" warns that "deterrence is steadily eroding in the Taiwan Strait and is at risk of failing, increasing the likelihood of Chinese aggression." ◆   New York Times, 2023-8-4: TSMC's chairman rejected the idea of the "silicon shield",“China will not invade Taiwan because of semiconductors. China will  not  not  invade Taiwan because of semiconductors”Mr. Liu said, "It is really up to the U.S. and China: How do they maintain the status quo, which both sides want?"  ◆  The WEEK UK, 2023-8-1: A report by the RAND Corporation stated that the island nation does not spend enough on defence, and what it does goes on “antiquated systems".  ◆ Economist, 2023-7-28: Joe Biden believes donating weapons to Taiwan will help forestall a war across the Taiwan Strait. The military move may instead provoke a new crisis. ◆  Wall Street Journal, 2023-7-28: Taiwan amps up Chinese-Invasion drills to deliver a message - War could happen.   ◆  Kyodo News (Japan), 2023-7-28: The military balance between China and Taiwan is "rapidly tilting to China's favor" , and "the gap appears to be growing year by year."  , Japan' said in its 2023 white paper     ◆ full text

◆ BBC, 2023-7-27:  many of Taiwan's conscript soldiers remain woefully under trained, and its weapons systems and military doctrine old and out of date. ◆ Financial Times, 2023-7-26:  Annual Han Kuang drills - “The progress is very slow, in fact too slow considering the threat we are facing,” said a Taiwanese military scholar ◆ Financial Times, 2023-7-24:  so-called salami-slicing tactics that Beijing is employing right now are slowly changing the status quo, and could eventually deprive Taiwan of the ability to defend itself.  Some defence experts therefore believe that the US military's strategy for deterring China is misdirected because it is focused too much on an outright invasion, rather than these pressure tactics. ◆ VOAnews, 2023-7-22: Taiwan VP's US transit to test already tense China-US ties. "Beijing distrusts Lai even more than they distrust Tsai Ing-wen," said Bonnie Glaser     ◆ full text

◆  Wall Street Journal, 2023-7-15:  Simulations by the CSIS found the U.S. could likely block a Chinese takeover of Taiwan with the support of allies such as Japan and Australia.  But Keio University prof. said he think 90% of Japanese people would say 'no' at this point to the question of 'whether you are willing to risk your life to defend Taiwan'  ◆  National Review, 2023-7-15: the Chinese military is advantaged if a Taiwan invasion is viewed as a local, limited conflict... Janet Yellen:  If reelected, president Biden may prefer not to fight for Taiwan.  ◆  Lowy Institute, 2023-7-17:  the RAND assessed that just two US allies in the Indo-Pacific – Australia and Japan – could be expected to help the United States. Moreover, this would likely just lie in the realm of “limited support”... similar to that which the United States and its allies imposed on Russia for its invasion of Ukraine  ◆  National Interest, 2023-7-15:  With the intensification of competition between China and the United States and the gradual deterioration of China's international situation, it is increasingly preferable for China to unify Taiwan earlier rather than later...  it is likely that Beijing will act early against Taiwan... extension of the compulsory conscription program received backlash from younger Taiwanese. U.S. deterrence strategy without sufficient Taiwanese military capability and determination of Taiwanese people would lose its solid foundation ◆ Council on Foreign Relations, 2023-7-7: Taiwan's dominance of semiconductor production ... is unlikely to act as a “silicon shield"   ◆  Wall Street Journal, 2023-7-5:  Taiwan is far from ready, the professionalism and motivation of Taiwan's military are a particular concern ◆  Council on Foreign Relations, June 2023:  If China were to annex Taiwan and base military assets, such as underwater surveillance devices, submarines, and air defense units on the island, however, it would be able to limit the U.S. military's operations in the region and in turn its ability to defend its Asian allies. ... it is at stake ... the ability to preserve U.S. access and influence throughout the Western Pacific  ◆  Foreign Affairs, 2023-6-15: The Chinese military is now moving in an even more dangerous direction.  For too long, Taipei focused on the combat capabilities of its active-duty force of less than 200,000 soldiers while neglecting to prepare its 23 million civilians to resist Chinese aggression. Taiwan remains extremely vulnerable. It relies on imported energy, food supplies, and medical equipment, ...  ◆  CSIS, 2023-6-15: Given the stakes, it is perhaps natural that U.S. officials and lawmakers are becoming more vocal about Taiwan's future. While these statements are likely motivated by a sincere concern over U.S. interests, they not only weaken the United States' long-term influence over events in the Taiwan Strait  ◆  National Interest, 2023-6-15:  If China launches an invasion without first destroying America's military assets in the region, its ships will be left vulnerable to attack. However, if it launches a preemptive strike on U.S. forces, especially on American soil in Guam, it will experience the full wrath of a vengeful United States ◆  L.A. Times, 2023-6-13:  Taiwan's relationship with China is one of the most contentious and defining issues that presidential candidates will have to grapple with in the January election. While the majority of Taiwanese support preserving the status quo, politicians are deeply divided on how to do so as tensions worsen, even within their own parties. ◆ Economist, 2023-5-31:  Taiwan's would-be presidents all promise a way to peace. Sadly, it is not entirely within their power. The next president will take office with the island at the centre of a bubbling superpower showdown   ◆ full text

◆  Washington Post, 2023-5-31:  Why are tensions so high?  China increasingly sees the US as abrogating its “One China policy,” which has been the basis of relations since 1979.  ◆ IG Financial Times, 2023-5-31: Fearing a potential conflict in Asia, western companies are looking to move production out of Taiwan. But turning away from the self-ruled island will come at a high price for manufacturers ◆ New York Times, 2023-5-30: Taiwan ambassador says Ukraine's success against Russia will deter any consideration or miscalculation that an invasion can be conducted unpunished, without costs, in a rapid way ◆ The Christian Science Monitor, 2023-5-30: Taiwan's rep. in US: Taiwan is preparing to defend itself, and not just rely on other democracies to save the day. The challenges that the US is experiencing in the defense supply chain have certainly had an impact on Taiwan. ◆ Reuters, 2023-5-27:  Failure to back Ukraine would send signal to China about taking Taiwan, Sen. Graham says ◆  Washington Post, 2023-5-29:  Choosing Taiwan over Ukraine is frighteningly misguided. China is a greater military threat than present-day Russia ; A turn toward Taiwan will most likely cause us to fail in both places ◆  The Guardian, 2023-5-24:  Taiwan's main political parties and an overwhelming majority of Taiwan's people reject the prospect of Chinese rule, but there are large differences in their plans for protecting Taiwan - the KMT says the best way forward is to have friendlier ties with China, DPP's Lai  has been described as more “green” (pro-independence) than Tsai Ing-wen ◆ The Guardian, 2023-5-22: US efforts to stifle China's chip industry are thought to be part of a wider plan to hinder Beijing's preparations for war;  The strategy seems to be working. ◆ Financial Times, 2023-5-21: Putin's war in Ukraine has "set back" China's ambitions to invade Taiwan, Hillary Clinton said ◆ Washington Post, 2023-5-18: it is now a very serious question whether the United States can defeat a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. To avert war with China, the U.S. must prioritize Taiwan over Ukraine ◆ New York Times, 2023-5-19 : Truss: only if more people visit Taiwan and more speak up for Taiwan, will the Chinese Communist Party realize that many people are paying attention to Taiwan, and so they should not act rashly ◆ New York Times, 2023-5-17  :  faced with voters who have been alarmed by Beijing's aggression toward the island, the Kuomintang is placing its hopes on a popular local leader with a blank slate on the thorny question of China.  ◆ The Hill, 2023-5-17:  Washington must dispense with its misguided policy of strategic ambiguity and make clear that it will defend Taiwan against Chinese aggression. ◆ Washington Post, 2023-5-12: military commitments are unlikely to endure under pressure unless they serve U.S. strategic and economic interests. Washington and Taipei share a vital interest in Taiwan's independence ◆ New York Times, 2023-5-11:  Some military strategists argue that TSMC's dominance in microchips provides Taiwan a guarantee against an invasion by China — in part because the United States would need to defend such an important piece of its supply chain. ◆ Nikkei Asia (Japan), 2023-5-11:  the upper echelons of Chinese leadership intend for it to spread, at least to a certain extent.  —   deciding to forcibly unify Taiwan now would be unrealistic and even dangerous. ◆ DW (Germany) , 2023-5-11:  Japan's public reluctant to defend Taiwan should China invade, but soaring defense spending and the upgrading of Japan's naval and air capabilities, in particular, indicate that the military is preparing itself in helping fend off any Chinese attack ◆ Washington Post, 2023-5-10: The president of the Hudson Institute:“Saying that we should prioritize Taiwan over Ukraine is like arguing that the firetruck should be parked at a house down the street to guard against a fire breaking out in the future instead of knocking down the fire at the burning house”◆ Foreign Policy in Focus, 2023-5-10:  Unlike Russia, China seems unwilling to sacrifice the country's economic well-being on the pyre of nationalism ◆ Nikkei Asia, 2023-5-11: A contrarian and even taboo view has been allowed to flourish -- that deciding to forcibly unify Taiwan now would be unrealistic and even dangerous ◆ 19FortyFive, 2023-5-10: By stacking their heaviest punches upfront, Beijing thinks that they can render the Americans so dazed and confused — inflicting so much damage at the outset of a fight — that Washington will stand down and abandon Taiwan ◆ The Hill, 2023-5-9: lawmakers on both sides of the aisle have also warned that Taiwan is ill prepared to fend off a military invasion or withstand a blockade ◆ Air and Space Forces, 2023-5-1: There's little evidence that the Taiwanese are headed in that direction, and are heeding U.S. advice to make themselves a military “porcupine,”Glaser said  ◆ le Monde, 2023-4-30: China's military exercises in the Taiwan Strait are a reminder of how fragile the island's status quo is  ◆ The Nation, 2023-4-26:  A Chinese invasion of Taiwan, however, would look very different, involving giant air and sea battles and, in all likelihood, immediate US intervention...any such engagement would almost certainly brush up against the nuclear threshold—and very likely cross it. ◆   AP, 2023-4-22: Lawmakers war-game conflict with China, the toll on all sides is staggering.  Alarmed and alienated allies in the war game leave Americans to fight almost entirely alone in support of Taiwan. ◆   CNN, 2023-4-20: complaints at high levels of both the Taiwanese and US governments about the lack of preparation and poor morale in the Taiwanese military  ◆  New York Times, 2023-4-18: Fear of China is pitting Taiwan's people against each other ◆ Brookings, 2023-4-17: the Taiwan voters are deeply pragmatic. a significant majority of the Taiwan voters are in the middle ◆ Washington Post, 2023-4-15: Unlike Ukraine, there is no situation under which Taiwan can defend itself without direct military intervention from the United States ◆  Brookings, 2023-4-15:  Anxiety about China's growing military capabilities to threaten Taiwan... has fed American impulses to alter longstanding policy, and to increasingly view challenges confronting Taiwan through a military lens  ◆  New York Times, 2023-4-14: China's Communist Party is now convinced that America wants to bring it down, which some U.S. politicians are actually no longer shy about suggesting.  ◆ full text

◆ The Guardian, 2023-4-14:  German foreign minister warns of ‘horror scenario’ in Taiwan strait... the French president, Emmanuel Macron: The worst of things would be to think that we Europeans must be followers on this subject and adapt ourselves to an American rhythm and a Chinese overreaction.”◆  TIME, 2023-4-12:  Xi understands that the risks of Pyrrhic victory – or even of defeat – are real. At a time when China is emerging from the world's most draconian lockdown and its worst economic slowdown in decades ◆ New York Post, 2023-4-8: House Foreign Affairs Committee chairman Rep. Michael McCaul has said the US may send troops to Taiwan should China invade the self-governed island. ◆ BBC, 2023-4-8: Taipei residents seemed unperturbed by China's military rehearsing encirclement of Taiwan ◆ FoxNews, 2023-4-6:  Taiwan residents are in apparent agreement in believing the U.S. will not come to their aid  ◆ New York Times, 2023-4-6: Despite the combative words, any retaliation by Beijing may be tempered by the difficult calculations facing China's leader, including over Taiwan's coming presidential race - could hurt the presidential hopes of the Nationalists, which favors stronger ties with China  ◆ New York Times, 2023-4-5:  Walking a Tightrope: Taiwan's president, Tsai Ing-wen, who recently visited the United States, has edged closer to America while trying not to anger China  ◆  Economist, 2023-3-29: a Taiwanese policy adviser frames voters' choice as one between “peace or war” ...The  DPP has criticised KMT's  "embracing appeasement”, but it, too, worries about conflict ◆ Taiwan is losing its friends.  Economist (2023-3-28): With China's wallet growing ever larger, Taiwan may instead need to hope that historical ties help to sustain the loyalty of its few remaining diplomatic partners ◆  AFP (2023-3-28): Latin America has been crucial to the diplomatic struggle between Beijing and Taipei since they separated in 1949....the decision by Honduras was a blow to Washington ◆  Modern War Institute at West Point, 2023-3-23:  to deter a specific fait accompli move by China against Taiwan—namely, the seizure of one of Taiwan's outlying islands. ... the best option is something they describe as “the poison frog strategy.”◆  Foreign Affairs, 2023-3-21: J. Chen Weiss: Alarm Over a Chinese Invasion Could Become a Self-Fulfilling Prophecy.  The hard but crucial task for U.S. policymakers is to thread the needle between deterrence and provocation...stray too far toward the latter, inadvertently provoking the very conflict U.S. policymakers seek to deter  ◆◆Reuters, 2023-3-13:  In "anticipation of a total blockade of the Taiwan Strait"... Taiwan says defence spending to focus on readying for 'total blockade' by China ◆ U.S. Naval War College  - China Maritime Studies Institute (Mar., 2023): The US may be able to defeat an attempted invasion landing but will lose when China imposes a blockade on the island...Unless US forces were able to dismantle the PLA-integrated air defense system,  the PLA could sustain the air blockade for months if not years without exhausting its inventory of air-to-air or surface-to-air weapons. (Asia Times) ◆ The Hill, 2023-3-13: The U.S. must recognize the centrality of maintaining the Taiwanese people's confidence that America and its partners will not abandon them.  Taiwanese must be sure not only that the U.S. will fight to defend them but also that it will prevent China from isolating them ◆ Economist, 2023-3-9: War is no longer a remote possibility, because an unstated bargain has frayed. Taiwan could resist an attack on its own only for days or weeks, any conflict could escalate quickly into a superpower confrontation.◆ Economist, 2023-3-6: Taiwan sees invasion and “grey zone” threats as equally important. they are unwilling to give up conventional defence, because there is no guarantee that America would step in. ◆ Foreign Policy Research Institute, 2023-3-9: Xi Jinping views “reunifying” Taiwan with China as an existential task for the ruling Communist Party. For the United States, preserving the status quo in the Taiwan Strait is critical for American security and economic interests ◆ Economist, 2023-3-6: Taiwan's fate will, ultimately, be decided by the battle-readiness of its people  ◆ full text
　

New York Times, 2023-2-22: TSMC might have been forced to set up a factory in the United States because of political considerations, but so far, the Phoenix project has yielded very little benefit for TSMC or Taiwan...citing lofty costs.  ◆ Bloomberg, 2023-2-22: Holding off the PLA for two weeks is a key goal of Taiwan's military because it would allow time for the US and other allies to come to its aid. ◆ Washington Post, 2023-2-22: Our best chance of preventing an invasion of Taiwan, and of essentially preventing World War III, is to put actual hard power on Taiwan ◆ Washington Post, 2023-2-20:  growing concern — conviction even — that war between the United States and China could be coming. The U.S. should deter — not provoke — Beijing over Taiwan. ◆ Economist, 2023-2-18: China still relies on Russia for certain crucial military components, which makes the friendship central to any plans China might have to invade Taiwan ◆ NY Times, 2023-2-15: An active denial strategy that focuses on supplying defensive weapons to U.S. allies and a lower-profile, more agile deployment of U.S. forces in the region would raise the costs of Chinese military action without exacerbating China's own sense of insecurity ◆ Council on Foreign Relations, 2023-2-12: the unpredictable nature of ADIZ violations is intended to keep the status quo around Taiwan unstable and ambiguous in order to facilitate strategic surprise  ◆ CNN, 2023-2-9: More US firms in Taiwan say they're seeing 'significant disruption' due to rising tension with China - elevated concern from global headquarters, increased shipping, insurance or financial costs, as well as staff anxiety  ◆ Bloomberg, 2023-2-5:   the US position on the island remains equivocal. The intention is to avoid provoking Beijing, yet the consequence is to weaken deterrence. ◆ Washington Post, 2023-2-3: (China's) state-run People's Daily said the United States must drop its “obsession” with containing China.  ◆ Washington Post, 2023-2-2: Japan must do more, and faster, to avert war over Taiwan...Crudely, Japan seems to be prepared to push back against only Chinese assets that are clearly poised to attack its sovereign territory. ◆ New York Times, 2023-2-1: The United States is increasing its military presence in the Philippines , the Philippines is among the most geographically close to Taiwan...is crucial to countering China in the event it attacks Taiwan   ◆ US Naval Institute, 2023-2-1:  The US and Taiwan should plan a defense strategy centered on defeating China in an urban war;  it is possible that using the geography of the island and its urban citadels is the best hope of success in the face of PLA overmatch ◆ Forbes, 2023-2-2: The United States Could Defend Taiwan—At The Cost Of A Lot Of Submarines ◆ Forbes, 2023-1-31: China's lack of capacity for amphibious assault as evidence that it will not be ready for war so quickly.  China's use of civilian ferries in military exercises makes it difficult to predict when, and if, China will invade Taiwan. ◆ Fortune, 2023-1-29: WSJ: Seth Cropsey warned of a possible war with China over Taiwan.  "If Lai Ching-te, (a fierce supporter of Taiwan's independence) does win (in 2024), Beijing could move quickly to invade".◆ Wall Street Journal, 2023-1-26:  Will the U.S. Really Defend Taiwan? Washington is strategically unprepared for a crisis and Biden's policies are hampering deterrence ◆  WSJ, 2023-1-23: Taiwan is much more important (than Ukraine) to our security and prosperity. Any tanks we can spare should go to Taipei ◆Bloomberg, 2023-1-21: A more effective structure would de-emphasize vulnerable combat aircraft and surface ships and emphasize instead land-based anti-air and anti-ship capabilities. This is what some commentators have called the "porcupine strategy" ◆  New York Times, 2023-1-21: Glaser warns that symbolic victories may not be worth the cost of provoking China ... "But the bottom line is, this is a fight over symbolism" said Dan Blumenthal ◆ USA Today, 2023-1-20: Taiwan's envoy to the US says her island has learned lessons from Ukraine's war that will help it deter, defend against an attack by China. Among the lessons: preparing for the kind of all-of-society fight Ukrainians are waging against Russia ◆ AFP, 2023-1-21:  Blinken sees lower US tensions with China but risks on Taiwan  ◆ CNN, 2023-1-20:  In Taiwan, ex-conscripts feel unprepared for potential China conflict ◆ WSJ, 2023-1-19: The Heritage Foundation's latest 'Index of U.S. Military Strength' warns of declining power in the U.S. Navy and Air Force. Taiwan  is ramping up its spending on defense but its conscription and readiness are underwhelming. ◆ Economist, 2023-1-19: TSMC  is playing a subtle game of diplomacy in which its business interests come first ◆ Star & Strips  2023-1-19: Taiwan defense experts expect few US boots on the ground if war breaks out with China  ◆ The WEEK (UK), 2023-1-19:  China's "compounding troubles" —  the demographic challenges, the pandemic and a troubled property market — could prompt President Xi Jingping to take rash action. ◆ New York Post, 2023-1-14:  the U.S. needs to speed up its military shipments to Taiwan, specifically long-range bombers with long-range anti-ship missiles. ◆The SUN, 2023-1-14: Taking Taiwan could even require Beijing to muster a force of two million troops, ...US should help arm Taiwan with missiles to DESTROY Shanghai to stop Chinese invasion, says ex-general ◆ TIME, 2023-1-7:  the threat of a costly armed engagement may encourage Beijing to pursue non-military scenarios to try to coerce Taiwan under its control.  ◆Washington Post, 2023-1-9: Taiwan needs to be prepared to withstand a lengthy siege but has not stockpiled nearly enough energy, food, medicine or ammunition. It has only about 10 days of natural gas supplies in reserve... Unfortunately, a lot of Taiwanese still don’t seem to grasp how perilous their situation is. ◆ CNN, 2023-1-9: CSIS War game suggests Chinese invasion of Taiwan would fail at a huge cost to US, Chinese and Taiwanese militaries  ◆ The WEEK (UK), 2023-1-10:  Bloomberg:“calls growing” among American politicians for a commitment to get involved if Beijing invades the island.  ◆ full text

◆ TIME, 2023-1-7:  the threat of a costly armed engagement may encourage Beijing to pursue non-military scenarios to try to coerce Taiwan under its control. ◆Washington Post, 2023-1-9: Taiwan needs to be prepared to withstand a lengthy siege but has not stockpiled nearly enough energy, food, medicine or ammunition. It has only about 10 days of natural gas supplies in reserve... Unfortunately, a lot of Taiwanese still don’t seem to grasp how perilous their situation is.  ◆The WEEK (UK), 2023-1-10:  Bloomberg:“calls growing” among American politicians for a commitment to get involved if Beijing invades the island. ◆ Forbes, 2023-1-9:  the extended-range JASSM-ER that helped to win the war in CSIS War game ◆ Financial Times, 2023-1-2: Taiwan's move to extend military conscription will not address broader strategic shortfalls... expert has long urged them to build a territorial defence force, a force which could operate as an urban guerrilla under a more decentralised command ◆ Forbes, 2023-1-2: Economics, often takes a back seat to geopolitics and national pride (questions of sovereignty and  the hyper-sensitivities of China's leadership) ◆ The Hill, 2023-1-3: America's ‘strategic ambiguity’ on Taiwan gets more dangerous by the day ◆ The Hill, 2022-12-30: Mark Esper says Taiwan is “not prepared enough” for a potential Chinese invasion ◆ The Guardian, 2022-12-30: Extending conscription may make Taiwan feel safer – but at the cost of alienating its young people  ◆ Deutsche Welle, 2022-12-30: US support for Taiwan is double edged: both essential to its survival, and risking dragging Taiwan into a much bigger conflict. ◆  Reuters, 2022-12-28: China slams Taiwan for seeking to use the Taiwanese people as "cannon fodder" by extending compulsory military service from four months to one year ◆ Wall Street Journal, 2022-12-28:  Military conscription is a good start, but leaders in Taipei need to act with greater urgency still ◆ New York Times, 2022-12-26: With Record Military Incursions, China Warns Taiwan and U.S. ;  71 military aircraft buzzed the airspace near Taiwan  ◆ Politico, 2022-12-27:  The U.S. has pledged to deploy so much firepower to the Indo-Pacific in 2023 that China won’t even consider invading Taiwan. Lawmakers and allies say it’s already too late ◆ Modern War Institute at West point, 2022-12-19: Taiwan has mostly accepted the need to shift to a “porcupine strategy” ... implementation has been slow. And Taiwan has neglected to cultivate the guerrilla-style resistance forces that will be necessary to counter an occupation. ◆ Politico (eu), 2022-12-20: the consequences of war in Asia would be just as devastating for the Continent.  if Taiwan wants to alter Beijing's cost-benefit calculus and deter an invasion, it must move boldly and quickly to bolster its defense. ◆  War on the Rocks,2022-12-19:  Biden's National Security Strategy of October 2022 tilted toward strategic ambiguity. ◆  CNN , 2022-12-17:  The population pool is decreasing, so Taiwan is actively considering whether to resume conscription to meet our military needs  ◆  War on the Rocks,2022-12-14: Is China planning to attack Taiwan? a careful consideration of available evidence says NO     ◆ full text

◆  The WEEK (UK), 2022-12-4 : A RAND Corporation study predicted that a yearlong war would cut the U.S.'s gross domestic product by 5 to 10 percent — but it would slash China's by 25 to 35 percent.  ◆ The Atlantic, 2022-12-3: Taiwanese people seem blissfully oblivious of a looming conflict with China. The U.S. can't afford that luxury ◆ Economist, 2022-11-29:  many Taiwanese are tired of squabbles over national identity, especially after Ms Tsai's refusal last year to accept an offer of much-needed vaccines from China  ◆ Wall Street Journal, 2022-11-28: Taiwan Ruling Party's election drubbing could ease tension with China and persuade Chinese leaders that they can peacefully influence politics there.     ◆ full text

◆ Reuters,  2022-11-27: Tsai had tried to frame the elections as more than just a local vote, saying the world is watching how Taiwan defends its democracy amid tensions with China... But her strategy failed to win public support.◆  Bloomberg, 2022-11-26: Taiwan Counts Votes in Elections Set to Shape Presidential Race ; Expert: The winners of elections will have a say in who get picked to in the subsequent presidential elections  ◆ Washington Post, 2022-11-23: Despite consistent prodding from Washington, however, Taipei is also not nationalistic enough in the sense that it hasn’t engaged in the kind of military preparation necessary to deter an attack. Its political leaders are reluctant to reduce their dependence on U.S. protection ◆Wall Street Journal, 2022-11-23:  ...the persistent fecklessness of Taiwanese government's defense policy, whose bottom line is that the island should be defended by others while Taiwan's youth can continue to play video games.◆ Economist, 2022-11-24: Where might conflict flare up in 2023?  Keep an eye on Taiwan and the South China Sea—and the Himalayas  ◆ full text

◆ Fortune, 2022-11-19:  U.S. restrictions on selling advanced computer chips to China could make invading Taiwan more tempting to Beijing. U.S. faces ‘immediate Great Depression’ if China seizes Taiwan’s semiconductor industry ◆Wall Street Journal, 2022-11-22: In Taiwan, a Shaky Status Quo Prevails; The people here have little desire either to yield to Beijing or to provoke a war ◆ Economist, 2022-11-18: Will Taiwan be the Ukraine of Asia? The status quo is breaking down, making war more likely ◆ CNN's meanwhile in China, 2022-11-14:  For Beijing, no red line is starker or more crucial than its claim over Taiwan ...The Chinese believe the US goal is to keep China down so we can contain it. And the US believes China's goal is to make the world safer for authoritarian states, push the US out of Asia and weaken its alliance system ◆ CNN, 2022-11-13: Biden's repeated statements on the American obligation to defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasion have done little to lower the temperature.◆Washington Post, 2022-11-13: Congress seeks to arm Taiwan quickly before the bullets start flying Economist, 2022-11-10: International attention is always welcome in Taiwan's quest for global recognition  ◆ NY Times, briefing, 2022-11-11: Taiwan is the top issue. Biden has taken a bolder stance on Taiwan than previous U.S. presidents. ◆ Washington Examiner, 2022-11-11: commander of U.S. Strategic Command: This Ukraine crisis  is just the warmup, the Taiwan war may be the next world war ◆ Washington Post, 2022-11-10: Beijing might also resort to force to stem what it sees ... a growing Taiwan-centric identity — as well as deepening U.S.-Taiwan security ties  ◆ DW (Germany), 2022-11-8: Beijing denies having an accelerated timeline on Taiwan "reunification" ◆Washington Times, 2022-11-8:  It would take at least a decade to design and build new types of ships and aircraft to counter China's threats... US Forces in the Indo-Pacific   may not be able to defend Taiwan successfully today ◆ Newsweek, 2022-11-8: Beijing's forces have "a lot of work to do" before attempting what would be one of the most difficult military campaigns in modern history ◆ National Interest, 2022-11-4: Washington should mediate a political solution between Moscow and Kyiv and refocus its global efforts on deterring Beijing from invading Taiwan ◆ USNI, 2022-11-7: Pentagon official: China will increase pressure on Taiwan in next two years rather than invade   ◆ The Atlantic, 2022-11-7: Because Taiwan is an island, it will be difficult to resupply in the event of hostilities; Taiwan needs support now  ◆ Fox News, 2022-11-4: If China conquers Taiwan, it would be huge blow to US national security, economy ◆ FoxNews, Reuters, Hill,Vice, 2022-10-31: US to Put Nuclear-Capable B52s in Australia as Taiwan Invasion Fears Grow  ◆ Fortune, 2022-10-30: China's Xi Jinping now has 'unlimited power' and could use Taiwan as a distraction from 'internal problems' ◆ CNN, 2022-10-27:  A hot war in Asia remains unlikely in the foreseeable future ◆ Washington Post, 2022-10-28: Taiwan, missiles and spying set to be China’s priorities under new Xi term ◆ WarOnTheRocks, 2022-10-28:U.S. support for Ukraine and other dynamics have led some to question if the current administration is truly prioritizing Taiwan  ◆ SCMP, 2022-10-30: Tsai administration accused of stalling decision due to plan's unpopularity with young voters; Better training needed if Taiwan extends mandatory military service, experts say◆ US News, 2022-10-27:  Russia's Sechin Says U.S. attempts to create its own complex microchip industry showed that "Taiwan's return to its native harbour" was "on schedule"  ◆ The Guardian, 2022-10-25: Xi Jinping's party purge prompts fears of greater Taiwan invasion risk    ◆ full text

 The SUN (UK), 2022-10-23: CHINA is “all but guaranteed” to attack Taiwan in the wake of Xi Jinping becoming leader for life  - and it could be one of the bloodiest wars in history, a leading expert has warned  ◆ New York Times, 2022-10-20:  The longer, written version of Xi's speech also stated that China has strengthened its “strategic initiative for China’s complete reunification,” suggesting greater urgency for its future plans ◆  New York Times, 2022-10-19:  the Chinese leader is unlikely to seek military conflict, either to divert attention from domestic challenges or to act before China's power peaks. ◆ BBC, 2022-10-18: China is pursuing unification with Taiwan "on a much faster timeline" than previously expected, Blinken says, Beijing had decided the status quo was no longer acceptable   ◆ Newsweek, 2022-10-21: Beijing has responded to the U.S. Navy's warning of a potential Chinese attack on Taiwan as soon as this year by cautioning Washington against any intervention on the sensitive geopolitical issue ◆ Daily Express, 2022-10-21: the 'Weakness' of US could 'encourage' China's efforts to blockade Taiwan; Experts urged the US to stand firm against Beijing ◆ The Diplomat, 2022-10-21:  recent polling has indicated over 50 percent of Americans support coming to Taiwan’s defense if an invasion were to occur ◆ USNI news, 2022-10-18:  China is looking to speed up its timeline for taking control of Taiwan to 2027 ◆ CNBC, 2022-10-18: Political watchers say the (CCP Congress) speech showed that Xi is not be keen to take Taiwan by force ◆ Reuters,2022-10-17: Analysis-Xi's new generals face tough military challenges post-congress;  the conundrum for the PLA is the lack of operational experience  ◆ New York Times,2022-10-16: On Taiwan, Xi Jinping warns (at the Congress) against international 'interference' ...China is still exerting what Xi also uses in the speech — ‘strategic patience’◆ NPR, 2022-10-18: there's evidence to suggest that from China's point of view, what they really want is control, not that kind of symbolic unification ◆ VOA,2022-10-16: Despite Tough Words, Japan Might Not Enter a Taiwan War ◆ Washington Post, 2022-10-16: Xi: the party had already created a “new choice” for humanity with its unique path to modernization — a nod to China's emergence as an alternative to Western democracies.  ◆ The SUN (UK),2022-10-16: an authority on China's military, recently warned the country is convinced it needs to hit America "hard and early " in a surprise Pearl Harbor-style attack to invade Taiwan.   ◆ full text

◆  Washington Post, 2022-10-12: Xi's looming third term in China raises threat of war over Taiwan... “Before, leaders talked about unification as something to be achieved in the long run. Now, it's number one on the agenda.”◆ Wall Street Journal, 2022-10-10: Mr. Xi may be disinclined to wait, given the risk of a more assertive president in Taipei in May 2024 or Washington in January 2025. Beijing's recent rhetoric has been consistent with this hypothesis ◆ Economist, 2022-10-10:  In Washington, there is talk of intelligence that the pla has been told to be in a position to take Taiwan by 2027...The liberal political order is at stake ◆ CBS News,2022-10-9: while much of the world thought an invasion might be imminent, polls showed that a majority of Taiwanese think that is unlikely any time soon, if ever..."This is not a matter of if they will invade, it's a matter of when they will invade" ◆  NY Times, 2022-10-5:  the U.S. was intensifying efforts to build a giant stockpile of weapons in Taiwan, turning it into a “porcupine” bristling with armaments to discourage aggression from mainland China ◆Forbes, 2022-10-3: Defense Secretary Austin: Chinese Invasion Of Taiwan Not 'Imminent'; “What we do see is China moving to establish what we would call a new normal".◆ FoxNews, 2022-10-2: soon-to-be Secretary-General of ASEAN: China 'would not' invade Taiwan if Beijing believes it owns the island ◆  Chicago Tribune, 2022-9-23: if China needs to be confronted militarily (and that's unlikely), Taiwan is precisely the wrong place to try to do that ◆ Wall Street Journal,2022-9-19: China Is Capable of Blockading Taiwan, U.S. Navy Commander Says ◆ CBS News,2022-9-18: Biden tells <60 Minutes> U.S. forces, U.S. men and women would defend Taiwan, but White House says this is not official U.S. policy ◆ Wall Street Journal,2022-9-19: China Is Capable of Blockading Taiwan, U.S. Navy Commander Says ◆ NY Times,2022-9-10: Drones started buzzing the islands off Taiwan-the latest front in China's mounting campaign of intimidation and psychological warfare ◆ NY Times, 2022-9-4: Washington is increasingly wary that an emboldened China might invade Taiwan in the coming years. ◆ Washington Examiner, 2022-9-6: Taiwan sees Bidens political-fears weakening us-strategy to counter china  ◆ The Hill, 2022-9-6: none of the three governments that could begin a war over Taiwan — those in Washington, Beijing and Taipei — should see war as in its interest...Taiwan will be extremely hard for us to defend ◆ abc news, 2022-9-5: Military reserves, Civil Defense worry Taiwan as China looms ◆ Washington Examiner, 2022-9-5: Xi could use force against Taiwan amid 'challenges from within' ◆Daily Express (UK), 2022-8-29: WW3 looming as 'no good options' remain in 'dangerous' China-US conflict over Taiwan  ◆ NY Times, 2022-8-25: China could try to impose a blockade to force the island into concessions or as a precursor to wider military action  ◆ NY Times, 2022-8-21: critics argued the tensions over Taiwan showed that Washington needed stronger military and economic strategies. ◆ War on the Rocks, 2022-8-22: Some five to nine missiles passed over Taiwan en route to targets east of the main island ◆ full text

◆ SCMP, 2022-8-21:  PLA adopts nuclear deterrence to stop foreign intervention on Taiwan: analysts ◆  NY Times, 2022-8-11: Taiwan, which has struggled with accidents and morale in the face of such a would-be foe as China. By many accounts, Taiwan's forces are poorly equipped and understaffed ◆ Economist, 2022-8-10: Ms Pelosi's visit has allowed Beijing to move to a new level of military activity unchallenged, which will make it harder for America to defend Taiwan. ◆ Economist, 2022-8-11: America has changed,...it began to doubt that it was worth defending...there is little doubt that America would join a fight over Taiwan today...  Japan ...has indicated that it could intervene in a war...Taiwan must also show more willingness to defend itself ◆ Washington Post, 2022-8-11: Beijing is now focusing on taking the island by force, not through peaceful reunification ◆ Economist, 2022-8-11: US expert ...assessment is that China could keep Taiwan sealed off for many months, perhaps years, with devastating effect. ◆ Economist, 2022-8-10: Ms Pelosi's visit has allowed Beijing to move to a new level of military activity unchallenged, which will make it harder for America to defend Taiwan. ◆ BBC, 2022-8-9: Beijing firing missiles over Taiwan - have become "acceptable" - because they have happened, and Beijing has got away with it. this becomes the new standard  ◆ NY Times, 2022-8-8: China's drills near Taiwan is a sign that Beijing will keep up its military pressure on Taiwan, and could be normalizing its presence around the island before gradually cutting off access to its airspace and waters ◆ New York Times, 2022-8-7: After China's Military Spectacle, Options Narrow for Winning Over Taiwan  ◆ full text

◆ Reuters, 2022-8-7: The ability to enforce a blockade would give Beijing leverage to bring Taiwan to the negotiating table ;A former Chinese defence official :"Seeing how the U.S. and its allies responded to the drills, how confident can Taiwan leaders be in counting on them to come to the rescue should the PLA attack?" ◆  New York Times, 2022-8-2: China is preparing a hostile response of some sort...This is an exceptionally dangerous situation, perhaps more so than Ukraine  ◆  CNN,2022-7-29: Pelosi's possible visit potentially triggers the worst cross-strait crisis in decades ... the escalating tension barely made headline news in Taiwan this week. Taiwan has made few comments about the situation. ◆ NY Times, 2022-7-28: The United States and China are on a collision course in the Taiwan Strait. China may soon be capable of seizing democratically ruled Taiwan — even in a fight with the United States. ◆ NY Times, 2022-7-25: Chinese leaders might try to move against the self-governing island over the next year and a half — perhaps by trying to cut off access to all or part of the Taiwan Strait  ◆ CNN,2022-7-25: Under Xi, a rising wave of nationalism has swept China, and support for "reuniting" with Taiwan — possibly by force — is running high ◆ Washington Post, 2022-7-23: Many Asian leaders have voiced fears that Russia’s effort to take over Ukraine could embolden China to move aggressively into Taiwan ◆ le Monde (France), 2022-7-21: China appears determined on using force in Taiwan ◆ DW (Germany),2022-7-22: Japan defense report warns Russia's invasion of Ukraine could encourage China to act against Taiwan ◆ Business Insider, 2022-7-21: CIA chief: the Ukraine war likely won't shake China's resolve to invade Taiwan ◆ FoxNews, 2022-7-20: CIA director 'wouldn't rule out' near-term Taiwan invasion  ◆ full text

◆ Washington Post, 2022-7-3:  these steps (asymmetric warfare) may not be enough to repel a far more powerful opponent like China. Taiwan's mandatory military service ... spend more time doing menial labor than learning combat skills. Tactics taught are comparable to those (Gulf War or the Vietnam War) ◆ N.Y. Times, 2022-6-19: A Looming Threat /  ...Taiwan politicians have electoral considerations. Extending military conscription, for example, would probably not be very popular  New York Times, 2022-6-13: Taiwan's defenses are, by many accounts, ill-equipped and understaffed...Should China invade, Taiwan's defenses will almost certainly crumble unless the United States and its allies help.  ◆ AFP, France24, 2022-6-10: China will 'not hesitate to start war' if Taiwan declares independence, Beijing says ◆ NY Times, 2022-6-10: American officials ... worry that China's leader, Xi Jinping, may be willing to go to war over Taiwan in the coming years.  ◆ full text