|
◆ New
York Times,
2026-2-3 |
While consistently antagonizing the allies that have helped keep
Beijing's geostrategic ambitions in check, Mr. Trump has shown little
appetite for sustained confrontation with Beijing, appealing for summits and
suing for peace in his trade war.
With fewer constraints, both internal and external, Mr. Xi would be free
to squeeze Taiwan even harder... |
|
◆ Foreign
Affairs, 2026-2-2 |
Xi's willingness to strip the high command down to its studs and renovate it at
this moment is also a signal that he is relatively comfortable with China's
external environment—especially the cross-strait dynamic. The Trump
administration does not seem to be especially ready to defend Taiwan: U.S.
President Donald Trump said “it's up to Xi” what China does regarding Taiwan... |
|
◆ Wall
Street Journal, 2026-2-1 |
Beijing views Trump as having little
appetite for a costly military intervention in the Taiwan Strait.
“Beijing is convinced it may never see a U.S. president more
indifferent to the Taiwan Strait than Trump”. |
|
◆ Politico, 2026-1-30 |
A Pentagon document didn't mention the self-governing island.
Compare that with the most recent defense strategy before this, from
the Biden 2022, which decried Beijing's “provocative
rhetoric and coercive activity towards Taiwan.” It also differs from the NDS
in Trump's first term... This
marks a shift from the NSS “deterring a
conflict over Taiwan”a
key priority. |
|
◆ EurAsian
Times, 2026-1-27 |
No QUAD, No Taiwan in New U.S. Defense Blueprint: Is Trump Leaving
Indo-Pacific Allies To The Wolves?
“Fairness” is listed as a guiding principle, meaning the U.S. will no longer
tolerate…free-riding” . American allies and partners
must work and spend for their own security; American support is now conditional
and limited. |
|
◆ The
Telegraph,
2026-1-24 |
The US Defense Department has released a
national defense strategy. In a break from decades of
US foreign policy, the 34-page report made no reference to Taiwan.
|
|
◆ The
Irish Times,
2026-1-24 |
Most people in Taiwan worry that Trump will
abandon Taiwan. Or even that
Trump will entrap Taiwan. |
|
◆ CNBC,
2026-1-21 |
China has doubled down on its criticism of
the trade deal between Taiwan and the U.S. agreed last week,
criticizing the deal for
"hollowing out"
the island's key industry;
the Trump administration for
"using Taiwan to contain
China." |
|
◆ Asia
Nikkei, 2026-1-19 |
Trump can't be trusted to defend Taiwan.
President's words, diplomacy with Xi and economic framing send Beijing
wrong signal. asia.nikkei.com/opinion/trump-can-t-be-trusted-to-defend-taiwan |
|
◆ Wall
Street Journal,
2026-1-18 |
Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick suggested Taiwan's security rests not
on its fabs but on America's favor: “Our president is
the key to protecting their country, so they need to make him happy,” |
|
◆ New
York Times,
2026-1-17 |
Given the stakes, a top priority for
American foreign policy must be deterring China without provoking China. a
fundamental question: Why should Americans risk their lives and spend billions
of dollars defending Taiwanese who aren't clearly
willing to make major sacrifices themselves? |
|
◆ Financial
Times,
2026-1-17 |
Taiwanese
officials said Taipei would exercise “extreme caution” to avoid any incident at Pratas
sparking a broader conflict. “We would consult with our ally” |
|
◆ CGTN,
2026-1-14 |
China made the
comment in response to U.S. President Donald Trump's latest remarks regarding
Taiwan in an interview with the New
York Times.
──
"the Taiwan question belongs to China's internal
affairs, and its resolution is a matter for the Chinese people alone". |
|
◆ TIME, 2026-1-6 |
Venezuela shows what happens when Trump perceives a threat to American interests
in America's
backyard: overwhelming force, no consultation with Congress, and regime change
in a matter of hours. But Taiwan isn’t in America's
backyard—it's
in China's.
And there's
little evidence Trump regards Taiwan's
security as a core American interest the way he regards hemispheric dominance. |
|
◆ NBC
News, 2025-12-30 |
China fires a warning to the US and
simulates Taiwan blockade; Trump says that Chinese President Xi
Jinping had not told him about the exercises but that they did not worry
him. Trump has notably refrained from expressing public support for Japan after
its prime minister, Sanae
Takaichi, outraged Beijing last month by saying that a Chinese attack on
Taiwan could prompt
a Japanese military response. |
|
◆ Mainichi
Shimbun (Japan),
Asia Times, 2025-12-28 |
The NSS stated
intentions of American control over the Western Hemisphere represent Trump's own
version of that “Roosevelt corollary.” And they will have noted the similarities
with what China has been trying to achieve in the South China and East China
Seas: strategic control over the whole area inside the island chain connecting
Japan to Taiwan and the Philippines. |
|
◆ Wall
Street Journal, 2025-12-25 |
President Trump has played
down the likelihood Beijing would use force against the island and
appears determined to deepen ties with Xi as the two prepare for an
April summit. the Trump
administration will seek “a wider range of
military-to-military communications with China and “also seek other
ways to make clear our peaceful intentions.” |
|
◆ New
York Post, 2025-12-24 |
The
Trump administration's approval of an
$11.1 billion arms sale is an overdo
correction after months of policy changes that favored Beijing over
Taipei.
China preparing to ‘win a war on Taiwan’ by 2027, new Pentagon
report warns. |
|
◆ China
Daily, 2025-12-26 |
Some foreign forces are adjusting "strategic ambiguity" in a more
"precise" direction — treating Taiwan less as a question to be managed
and more as a forward position in a broader attempt to contain China. From
hyping the so-called "2027
mainland invasion" claim, to amplifying narratives pushed by certain
think tanks in the United States about a
"three-phase operational plan" and rolling out slogans and programs such
as "whole-of-society defense" and
"cognitive operations", the goal is to normalize tension and
institutionalize a war mentality. |
|
◆ Responsible
Statecraft, 2025-12-24 |
We
must return to strategic ambiguity and resist the temptation of
empty platitudes, political stunts, and commitments that we cannot
back up. Categorical
statements of support for Taiwan from world leaders in recent years
have made Taiwan less, not more secure. If
we continue down this path, we will bring about the very outcome we
seek to avoid.
|
|
◆ WSWS.org, 2025-12-22 |
Trump approves largest-ever arms sale to Taiwan.
The stationing of such weaponry on Taiwan is a calculated provocation designed
to undermine the One China policy to which Washington nominally continues to
adhere.
The US is seeking to exploit Taiwan as a means of drawing China into a war
that would significantly weaken the Chinese military and government of
President Xi Jinping. |
|
◆ Raw
Story, 2025-12-15,
12-13 |
To
the shock of the western world, Trump “cut a deal” to let
Nvidia sell some of their most advanced chips to China after our military
and intelligence experts have explicitly warned of the danger that this could
accelerate that country's move toward seizing Taiwan and threatening us with
World War III.
|
|
◆ CNN, 2025-12-12 |
NSS has nothing to say about China's
strategic ambitions … and whether those are compatible with US
interests. Trump has dedicated multiple paragraphs to Taiwan, but the document also softened its language elsewhere –
saying the US “does not support any unilateral change to the status
quo in the Taiwan Strait,” instead of “opposing” any such change. |
|
◆ Washington
Post, 2025-12-12 |
Trump's second term has
introduced more
uncertainty into Taipei's delicate balancing act between the two superpowers
— and is sowing doubt in Taiwan. Nearly 45
percent of the Taiwanese public thinks that Trump would be unwilling to prevent
a Chinese military invasion of Taiwan, according to an October
poll. |
|
◆ New
York Times, 2025-12-2 |
Mr. Trump “has sent
conflicting messages to Taiwan which have not helped and worried
America's allies in the region". |
|
◆ The
Guardian, 2025-11-30 |
Trump has now flipped from waging a trade war to gushing
gratitude for an invitation to visit Beijing, obtained during his obsequious
phone call to Xi last week. Trump subsequently offered no public assurances to
Taiwan ... His truckling to Xi reinforced fears in Taipei and Tokyo that, as
Ukraine knows, he's chronically unreliable. |
|
◆ TIME, 2025-11-30 |
The fate
of 23 million Taiwanese hangs in the balance. But in the age of Trump—and
whatever one makes of the Japan-China spat—it is clear shared values
are taking the backseat. |
|
◆ Wall
Street Journal, 2025-11-28 |
While U.S. silence may deter China, it can
also weaken public resolve. That makes Trump's public
silence, coupled with his willingness to turn away from traditional U.S.
alliances, a cause for concern for some in Taipei.
|
|
◆ The
Economist, 2025-11-27 |
Trump wants to make biggest trade
deal in history; He
doesn't think of the bigger political military implications,
that's not of interest to him. Taiwanese should be scared.
Trump would need something absolutely
astonishingly large and shiny and impressive in return.
There's nothing large enough and shiny enough that China would be willing to
give, that's what keeps Taiwan safe. youtube.com/shorts/h_1y0u3Sl0o |
|
◆ Taipei
Times, 2025-11-24 |
Ryan Hass: There has been much catastrophizing
in Taiwan recently about America becoming more unreliable as a bulwark against
Chinese pressure. Some of this has been sparked by debates in Washington about
whether the United States should defend Taiwan in event of conflict.
Trump's approach is disruptive, transactional,
unsentimental, and amoral. Much the same could also be said about Trump's
posture toward America's allies in Europe and Asia.
Trump's domestic supporters applaud this tougher
approach, believing it will prod allies to invest more in their own defense and
rely less upon the United States for their security. |
|
◆ Wall
Street Journal 2025-11-20 |
Beijing sees the Trump administration
wavering in its commitment to Taiwan. US Admin. officials have characterized
Trump's shift as pragmatic deterrence that forces Taipei to fund its own defense
capabilities while avoiding symbolic gestures |
|
◆ The
Hill
, 2025-11-18 |
US national
security community have long advocated a clear,
unequivocal, officially vetted U.S. commitment to defend Taiwan.
Trump is only the latest U.S. president to decline
to embrace such a thing.
|
|
◆ Anadolu
Agency
, 2025-11-19 |
senior advisor at the
International Crisis Group: Trump has “evinced little concern
for Taiwan's security.” Trump appears “interested in a
narrow deal focused mainly on restoring a more functional trading relationship”
with China. |
|
◆
Fox News, 2025-11-1 |
Compared with other conflict zones, Trump has said little about the prospect of
war in the Indo-Pacific, leaving allies and adversaries alike uncertain about
how far he would go to defend Taiwan. |
|
◆
East Asia Forum, 2025-11-4 |
the Trump administration increasingly treats Taiwan not as a strategic partner,
but as a bargaining chip to be traded away in broader diplomatic and economic
negotiations. The Six Assurances to
Taiwan Act's limited constraining power reflects both its design and Congress's
reluctance to check the executive. |
|
◆ Financial
Times, 2025-10-27 |
reports are swirling that the Pentagon is about to
announce a major reorientation of US defence policy — concentrating on the
western hemisphere at the expense of east Asia. |
|
◆ TIME,
2025-10-23 |
Few places are scrutinizing
Trump's flip flops over U.S. backing for
Ukraine with greater apprehension than Taiwan.
Trump's recalcitrance regarding
support for military action over Taiwan is broadly shared by its
allies. Taiwan fears that the
combination of Trump's diffidence toward alliances and global acclaim as a
war-ending “man of peace” may embolden Xi . |
|
◆ Economist, 2025-10-23 |
Taiwan is confronting one of
its deepest fears: what happens if America abandons it?
Trump hinted at that in May by suggesting that such a deal
would be “great for unification and peace” |
|
◆ Foreign
Affairs,
2025-10-22 |
Trump's actions in the first year of his second term have already contributed to
growing anxiety in Taipei about the durability of U.S. support. Concessions to
Beijing would increase skepticism among the Taiwanese about the value of
investing in deterrence and preparing for a potential crisis. |
|
◆
Financial Times, 2025-10-16 |
There
has long been talk of a grand bargain between China and the United
States. nightmare? it would be
something like a cessation of military sales, or perhaps a shift in
the rhetorical position on Taiwan independence, maybe coming out
against it explicitly rather than being ambiguous. |
|
◆
CBC, Radio-Canada, 2025-10-17 |
The key issue is whether the
United States is going to come to Taiwan's rescue if Taiwan gets
invaded; Taiwan's role is actually
to serve as a critical component of the alliance built by the U.S.
The U.S. has made it crystal clear that we're trying to recreate a
supply chain free of China's influence. |
|
◆
Asia Times, 2025-10-6 |
a senior fellow,
East-West Center, Honolulu: Finally, Washington is gravitating toward the belief that Taiwan is
militarily indefensible, which means US forces would not intervene to oppose
a PRC attack, Shield or no shield. |
|
◆ The
Diplomat, 2025-10-4 |
The U.S. military strategy“does not demand too much
from Americans.”
Trump has recently begun prioritizing the
self-defense of Taiwan over an overt U.S. military intervention in
the event of a Taiwan contingency.
Trump
seems to be in favor of "Taiwan itself
take more responsibility for its own defense"
thediplomat.com/2025/10/trumps-approach-to-taiwan-is-taking-shape |
|
◆
The Guardian, 2025-9-20 |
Donald Trump's reported pause on £297m in weapons aid to Taiwan has
fuelled fears he is using US support of the island to negotiate with China.
|
|
◆
Washington Post, 2025-9-19 |
Trump declined to approve more
than $400 million in military aid to Taiwan this summer, as he tries
to negotiate a trade deal and potential summit with Chinese leader
Xi Jinping. The decision on the aid
package had not yet been finalized. |
|
◆
New York Times, 2025-9-15 |
Trump so far appears wary of
antagonizing Beijing over this issue; He must go further by strongly reaffirming that the United
States does not support Taiwan independence, reimposing restrictions on
diplomatic contact and stopping efforts to expand Taipei's participation in international
organizations...
|
|
◆
Monocle (UK), 2025-9-11 |
Against a formidable neighbour and with a long-term ally
in the US that can no longer be fully relied upon – Taiwan must override its
reflex to de-escalate
– Taiwan
will require pay that competes,
training that produces capable forces and a broader recruiting base that
includes women and specialists. |
|
◆
The Diplomat, 2025-9-6 |
Washington has made clear that deterrence depends not only on U.S. commitments
but also on Taiwan’s own readiness. For U.S. policymakers, Taiwan cannot remain
passive or ambiguous; visible action is a prerequisite for credibility. But
If Lai pushes too openly for reform and mobilization, he risks triggering
public anxiety, economic disruption, and further political erosion.
|
|
◆
CBS
News, 2025-8-29 |
Since Mr. Trump returned to the White House in January, there have been growing
jitters in Taipei over the strength of the Taiwan-U.S. relationship and
Washington's willingness to defend the island if China were to attack. |
|
◆
BBC, 2025-8-26 |
Taiwan has been criticised for not taking national defence seriously
and been urged to raise defence spending, even to as high as 10 per
cent of GDP by Donald Trump and other US officials.That the government is unable to get such spending passed means it
will continue to face pressure from the US. |
|
◆
Washington
Post, 2025-8-23 |
Trump back in the White House and
trying to cut another trade deal with China, fears that the United States might
not assist Taiwan in the event of a war have deepened. |
|
◆
Foreign
Policy, 2025-8-21 |
U.S. security guarantees no longer seem as
solid as they once were. Taipei
fears that if Trump is willing to do all this just to get a summit with
Xi, he might be willing to further accommodate Beijing—e.g.,,
by cutting defense sales to Taiwan and formally opposing Taiwan's
independence |
|
◆
Global Times, 2025-8-22 |
if TSMC were to move all its advanced production
facilities to the US, the company could face the existential threat of being
hollowed out |
|
◆
Global Times, 2025-8-21 |
US Commerce Secretary warned "For national security,
we must manufacture our own chips domestically. We cannot rely on Taiwan, which
is 9,500 miles from the US and only 80 miles from China. 99 percent of
leading-edge chips should not be made in Taiwan."
US Treasury Secretary echoed
Lutnick's remark, "the single point of
failure for the global economy is that 99 percent of the advanced chips in the
world are made in Taiwan," "And for national security, we have to stop
that single point of failure" |
|
◆
Foreign
Policy, 2025-8-21,
The Atlantic, 2022-5-24, The Guardian, 2021-5-14
|
Trump once said “Taiwan is like two feet
from China. … We are 8,000 miles away. If they invade, there isn’t a fucking
thing we can do about it.” |
|
◆◆Reuters, 2025-8-21 |
Taiwan's 2026 defence budget to exceed 3% of GDP as US presses spending increase. |
|
◆
Global Times, 2025-8-21 |
China's expert warned that the defense
expenditures would erode resources for people's livelihoods, harming the
well-being of the Taiwan population in the long run, which would also face
backlash from the local public.
China: Such US-Taiwan
collusion, be it military aid, arms sale or under any other pretext, reveals the
extremely malicious intention of the US to mislead Taiwan into the flames of
war, harming Taiwan itself and undermining its interests. |
|
◆
Brookings, 2025-8-11 |
The White House recently called off a
meeting between Taiwan's defense minister and
Pentagon officials and delayed action on military sales. Ely Ratner
on WP: These concessions send a
dangerous signal that America's approach to Taiwan
is negotiable.
Taiwan increasingly looks like a
bargaining chip in U.S.-China relations. |
|
◆
Brookings, 2025-8-11 |
U.S.-Taiwan political relations have
also soured under Trump. Both The
New York Times and The
Washington Post linked the rejection of Lai Ching-te's visit to the Trump
administration's desire to arrange a summit with PRC leader Xi Jinping. |
|
◆
The
Conversation, 2025-8-8 |
Trump appears increasingly
reluctant to back Taiwan in ways that risk provoking Beijing.
Trump's stance is far harder to predict. If China were to dangle a
trade deal in front of the US president – committing to buy more US goods,
put in more investment that is non-problematic on security grounds in the US
and generally abide by American demands – would Trump be able to resist? |
|
◆
New
York Times, 2025-8-8 |
Taiwan Strained by 20%
Tariffs, No trade deal
and political uncertailty. Taiwan's
export manufacturers are facing steeper U.S. tariffs than
their neighbors got and getting squeezed by an appreciating
currency. |
|
◆
Chicago
Tribune, 2025-8-5 |
If Joe Biden as president had made a similar move (denied
Lai to stop in the US ) , the Taiwanese political and
security establishment would have rested easy, knowing that U.S. support was
unquestionable. but Trump's
priorities are finalizing a comprehensive trade accord with China and
pushing U.S. allies to do more for themselves on the
defense front. |
|
◆
UNherd
(UK), 2025-8-3 |
For the first time in nearly two
decades, Washington issued a sharp and
public rebuke to Taiwan. President Lai's recent rhetoric has added an
unnecessary layer of tension to already fraught cross-Strait relations.
Washington must act to restrain Taiwan's growing push toward formal
nationhood and independence. |
|
◆
New
York Times, 2025-8-1 |
Mr. Trump previously said Taiwan had gained an
unfair dominance in making semiconductors and had accused the country, which
depends on the United States for political support against China's claims,
of spending too little on its own security |
|
◆
Foreign Affairs, 2025-8-1 |
In an April poll, we found that 50
percent of DPP supporters see the United States as a trustworthy or very
trustworthy ally, whereas just three percent of KMT supporters and ten percent
of TPP supporters think so. |
|
◆
New York Times, 2025-7-30 |
Matthew Pottinger criticized the apparent
decision by American officials to “bend over backwards” in the face of
Chinese objections to transit stops by the Taiwanese leader. |
|
◆◆Al Jazeera,
2025-7-31 |
there are deep currents of scepticism towards the
US – known as yimeilun – running through Taiwanese society.
A survey in April found that
just 23.1 percent viewed the US as
either a “trustworthy or very trustworthy” partner, down from 33.6 percent in
June 2024. |
|
◆
Financial Times, 2025-7-30 |
The
US cancelled a meeting with Taiwan's defence minister in June, deepening
concerns in Taipei |
|
◆
Fox News, 2025-7-30 |
A group of Senate Democratic leaders
are accusing President Donald Trump
of making "steep concessions to Beijing"
by refusing to allow the Taiwanese president to come to the U.S. and
allowing China to purchase Nvidia chips... "ceded
leverage" in trade talks without gaining any "real breakthrough" in
negotiations, |
|
◆
The Guardian, 2025-7-30 |
the top Democrat on the house's
China committee, called it “another example of the Trump administration
caving to China in hopes of reaching a trade deal.”an
expert called it “abnormal” for Washington not to agree when such
stopovers are permitted under the Taiwan Relations Act. |
|
◆◆Fox
News, 2025-7-29 |
U.S.-Taiwan solidarity has long included symbolic gestures —
but critics suggest that the Trump administration may be undermining that
relationship in a bid to engage China on trade. |
|
◆◆Bloomberg, 2025-7-30 |
"Washington may be again relegating Taiwan to the back burner and framing Taiwan
as a mere bargaining chip in service of the US’ China policy ends”,“If true, it would be a dangerous sign",
said an expert at the Atlantic Council's Global
China Hub. |
|
◆◆Telegraph
(UK), 2025-7-29 |
Bonnie Glaser: the move
(blocked
Lai Ching-te's NY stopover)
suggested that “Trump wants to avoid irritating Beijing
while US-China negotiations are ongoing and planning
gets under way for a possible summit with Xi ”,
“By signalling that aspects of the US
relationship with Taiwan are negotiable, Trump will
weaken deterrence and embolden Xi to press for
additional concessions ” |
|
◆◆Bloomberg, 2025-7-28 |
“The fact that at least some in the
administration are putting our partnership with Taiwan on the table with Beijing
is deeply concerning, and sends a dangerous message to Beijing,” said Laura
Rosenberger, chaired the American Institute in Taiwan until this year |
|
◆
Council on Foreign Relations, 2025-7-25 |
Trump is avowedly opposed to entering new wars and is eager to strike grand
bargains. Would a grand bargain with Xi involve selling Taiwan down the river in
exchange for trade or commercial concessions?
Trump's desire to shoulder this burden,deterrence
in the Taiwan Strait?, is very much an open question. |
|
◆
Washington Post, 2025-7-23 |
Trump's views about Taiwan are unclear,
... Some fear that in trying to make a broad trade
agreement with Xi, Trump could put Taiwan on the table. |
|
◆
WSWS.org, 2025-7-21 |
the US under both Biden and Trump has
sought to goad China into using its military to take over Taiwan. Formally, the
US still abides by the “One China” policy; but
Washington has been systemically undermining that policy by dispensing with
associated diplomatic protocols, arming Taiwan with offensive weapons and
stationing US troops on the island. |
|
◆
Reuters,
2025-7-25 |
the debate within the U.S. itself, including in the Pentagon, over whether
Washington is making matters safer or more dangerous through its actions to
counter China;
the so-called “restrainers” – say it should look to pull back its forces nearest
China's mainland, including the 500-odd trainers, contractors and military
personnel reported to be on Taiwan itself. |
|
◆
Bloomberg, 2025-7-23 |
Lai is treading a fine line in
negotiations with the US, needing to maintain good relations with the country
that provides key security guarantees without angering domestic constituencies,
including the farming sector. Taiwan's growing reliance on sales to
the US market has intensified its need to bring down tariffs. |
|
◆
Taipei Times,
2025-7-14 |
Trump's is less about strategy than instinct. Trump approaches diplomacy as a
real estate mogul might: transactional, impulsive, and often devoid of
historical context. For Taiwan, Can it continue to rely on a US security
umbrella under a president who has questioned the value of NATO, ... and hinted in the past at making deals with
China at Taiwan's expense? |
|
◆◆The
Telegraph (UK), 2025-7-15 |
the Australian prime minister says
that his country would not join a “hypothetical” conflict with China over
Taiwan.
President
Donald Trump has echoed this position, while also pushing for Taiwan to do its
own part to protect itself. |
|
◆◆The
PRINT, 2025-7-16 |
Trump has adopted an “America First”
approach and is increasingly less keen on spending money to defend foreign
countries. Vance declared that US under Trump will “choose carefully when
to use military force” and “will avoid involvement in
open-ended conflicts” . Not exactly encouraging for
Taiwan if they are depending on the US joining a
potential fray.
msn.com/en-in/news/world/a-look-at-the-diplomatic-dance-over-taiwan-as-us-presses-allies-for-clarity-amid-china-flex/ar-AA1ICrtd?ocid=BingNewsVerp |
|
◆◆Lowy
Institute, 2025-7-14 |
An AUKUS ultimatum for
Australia over Taiwan could undermine the Australia
alliance it aims to strengthen. Rather than being the
actions of a rogue official, it's clear that the Trump
administration is intending to pressure the Albanese government publicly. Anadolu Agency,
2025-7-14: Prime Minister Anthony Albanese says Canberra does not support any one-sided
move on Taiwan as Washington calls for clarity on Australia's stance |
|
◆◆National
Defense magazine, 2025-7-14 |
Lack of U.S. participation in Taiwan military exercise a concern, experts say:
The United States’ absence from Han Kuang not only limits its effectiveness,
but also incurs heavy costs in the event of an actual invasion scenario, they
said. Despite apparent bipartisan support for
Taiwan's defense, to domestic considerations. “Each
politician has got their own constituent to think about”. |
|
◆◆Taipei
Times, 2025-7-14 |
Under a president whose loyalty to
democratic norms is ambiguous and whose geopolitical thinking centers on
short-term leverage, Taiwan could easily become a pawn in a larger bargain — or
worse, left to fend for itself. Trump has previously oscillated between fiery
rhetoric on China and overtures of camaraderie with Xi . His unpredictability breeds confusion in Taipei, and, perhaps more
dangerously, could encourage miscalculation in Beijing.
Taiwan must avoid putting all its eggs in Washington's
basket
taipeitimes.com/News/editorials/archives/2025/07/14/2003840240 |
|
◆◆BBC,
2025-7-9 |
doubt
grows in Taiwan that the US under Donald Trump would intervene militarily in the
event of a Chinese attack; The US is compelled by legislation to help Taiwan defend itself, but Trump has
been ambiguous about this and recently refused
to comment on whether he would stop China from taking Taiwan by force. |
|
◆
Council on Foreign
Relations,
2025-7-8 |
China's
chances of prevailing were improving. Taiwan’s defense officials also expressed heightened concern. One unnamed
official told the Financial
Times that China's rocket force and air force
were now able to switch from peacetime to wartime operations in the Taiwan
Strait at “any time” without warning. |
|
◆◆New
York Times,
2025-7-7 |
Taiwan depends on political and
military support from the United States to help resist pressure from Beijing.
Mr. Trump has demanded that Taiwan drastically raise its own military spending,
Officials in Taiwan have committed to a slight increase in military
spending |
|
◆
ekathimerini (Greece),
2025-7-3 |
Though the US Congress, the Pentagon, and
much of Trump’s Ccabinet remain staunch China hawks, Chinese leaders see the
president's isolationist tendencies and personal
disinterest in Taiwan as a sign that US backlash to gray-zone moves may be
muted. But Trump is nothing if not unpredictable... |
|
◆
Japan's Mainichi (每日新聞),
2025-6-25 |
Taiwanese trust in the US
is surprisingly low. survey by the Japan-Taiwan Exchange
Association, only 3 percent
like the U.S.; many people doubt whether
Washington will really help in cross-strait contingencies. The second-term Trump
administration's tariff policy toward Taiwan has been strict, and consideration
for Taipei's national security needs has remained lacking. |
|
◆
Economist,
2025-6-10 |
It does not help that Trump has long scoffed at Taiwan's prospects in a fight
with China. And if America stays aloof, no other power will take up arms in
Taiwan's defence. Britain and
Germany were chided by other American officials for sending warships through
the Taiwan Strait to uphold the freedom of navigation. |
|
◆
Atlantic Council,
2025-6-9 |
The
US TRANSCOM has revealed reduced
capacity and greater cracks in the United States’ sustainment
strategy. This combination of reduced warning and response poses serious risks
to the United States’ ability to deter a forceful resolution across the Taiwan
Strait. |
|
◆◆National
Security Journal,
2025-6-5 |
Brent Eastwood, a
scholar
at American University, George Washington
University, and George Mason University, said
Trump might
not ‘Go to War’ to save Taiwan from a China
invasion.
Trump believes there will be a
diplomatic and political solution, not a military solution to the Taiwan
question. |
|
◆◆The
Guardian,
2025-6-1 |
Trump doesn't know how to deal with China. His cowardice only
makes a war with Taiwan more likely |
|
◆◆New
York Post,
2025-5-29 |
Taiwanese officials are worried their country will have
difficulty
attracting international support should
China
launch an invasion. "in order to stay in
power, Xi will have to possibly use force against Taiwan.” |
|
◆◆NBC
News,
2025-5-30 |
Even as it works with the U.S.,
Taiwan is unsure about the extent of the security commitment from
Washington. Further muddling the picture are comments Trump
has made about Taiwan.
“You have different voices
emerging from the United States, so that creates more uncertainties
for Taiwanese”. |
|
◆◆Reuters,
Bloomberg,
2025-5-30 |
Trump is planning to ramp up
weapons sales to Taiwan to a level exceeding the pace set during his
first term. |
|
◆◆New
York Times,
2025-5-22 |
Some of President Trump's
words and actions on Taiwan — raising tariffs, demanding that it
drastically raise military spending, and accusing Taiwan of stealing the
U.S. lead in making semiconductors — have magnified doubts in Taiwan
about whether the United States would step in if China attacked the
island. |
|
◆◆New
York Times,
2025-5-21 |
Taiwan's president has taken a
tougher stance on China, raising criticism from some
who say it's a risky position since a geopolitically
fickle President Trump may not offer steadfast support
for the island. |
|
◆◆AFP News, Eurasian Times,
2025-5-19
|
foreign affairs have been more
fraught with “a lot of uncertainty” under US President Donald Trump over
Washington's policy towards Taiwan, China, and
the region, David Sacks, a fellow for Asia studies at the Council on
Foreign Relations said. |
|
◆
National Interest, 2025-5-20 |
Polls repeatedly show that an American majority does not support
fighting for Taiwan |
|
◆
PBS, 2025-5-20 |
Taiwan has never been regarded as a strategically critical location for
the United States in Asia.
|
|
◆◆Reuters,
2025-5-13 |
"They've agreed to open China,
fully open China, and I think it's going to be fantastic for China, I
think it's going to be fantastic for us, and I think it's going to be
great for unification and peace," Trump said,
without mentioning Taiwan. |
|
◆◆Business
Times (Singapore, 2025-5-13)
|
Although Trump made no direct
reference to Taiwan, his use of the word "unification"-a term commonly
associated with Beijing's objective of reclaiming sovereignty over the
island-led to unease in Taipei and speculation over whether Washington's
position on cross-strait relations had shifted. |
|
◆◆Wall
Street Journal,
2025-5-10 |
Taiwan's leaders have embarked on an urgent overhaul of the island's defenses to
prepare for what they see as the possibility of a Chinese invasion by 2027.
Taiwan's deputy foreign minister said:
Taiwan will also need to know if U.S.
forces will show up. |
|
◆◆Economist,
2025-5-1 |
America, grows less reliable. Some observers see “flashing warning
lights” that China is preparing to bring about “reunification” by force.
Colby argued that America
should concentrate on containing China, not least by explicitly guaranteeing
Taiwan's security. Now he says Taiwan is not an
“existential” matter and suggests the island cannot be defended at
acceptable cost. economist.com/briefing/2025/05/01/chinese-military-exercises-foreshadow-a-blockade-of-taiwan |
|
◆◆Brookings,
2025-4-25 |
According to our
survey, across almost all measures, the United States is seen as a less
reliable partner, Taiwan and South Korea both feel less confident that the
United States will assist them in the event of a conflict with their respective
authoritarian neighbor.brookings.edu/articles/the-trump-effect-on-public-attitudes-toward-america-in-taiwan-and-south-korea/ |
|
◆◆Fox
News, 2025-4-23
|
Taiwanese representative to the U.S. Alexander Yui discusses a potential Chinese
invasion; He said it is our house,
we will keep it safe. |
|
◆◆The
Conversation, 2025-4-22 |
With the US now an unreliable ally, proliferation risk is greatest in East
Asia: Japan, South Korea, even Taiwan |
|
◆◆New
York Times, 2025-4-16
|
President Trump has threatened tariffs on Taiwan
and the chip industry. China has signaled it will not let the trade war
keep it from the technology it needs.
Expert at Techcet said,“Everyone
is holding their breath"
nytimes.com/2025/04/16/business/china-taiwan-tariffs-chips.html |
|
◆◆The
WEEK,
2025-4-15 |
Washington's
long-maintained "security relationship" has been "less
than assured" since Donald Trump took office
recently.
"the confusing signals" from America have
left "Taipei wondering where it stands", said The
Washington Post.
|
|
◆◆Newsweek,
2025-4-8 |
Would Donald Trump Defend Taiwan?
Even as Pete Hegseth said that the U.S. priority is the Indo Pacific, the U.S.
military is focused on the Middle East, and there have been reports that the
U.S. THAAD battery in Seoul along with two Patriot missile batteries, deployed
elsewhere, were moved to the Middle East. |
|
◆◆New
York Times, 2025-4-1
|
The problem with
president Mr. Lai's approach is that Taiwan can no
longer bank on U.S. support. This isn’t something that we are just now
realizing |
|
◆◆Washington
Post,
2025-3-21 |
The U.S. president's transactional approach has unnerved
many in Taiwan.
“We are moving toward conflict
escalation with China, that's for sure,” said a
professor at National Chengchi University. |
|
◆◆Wall
Street Journal,
2025-3-17 |
Taiwan's military planners signal to Washington the desire for a stable relationship as
anxieties simmer in Taipei about whether President Trump would send help to
defend against a Chinese attack. Trump's recent suspension of U.S. support
for Ukraine heightened
those concerns in Taiwan. |
|
◆◆The
Hill,
2025-3-13 |
Taiwan
president Lai has clearly gotten the message that he must
increase defense spending in a world where the U.S. appears
increasingly likely to leave small powers to fend for themselves.
|
|
◆◆Eurasian Times,
2025-3-1 |
Same Playbook! just like the
Ukraine minerals deal, the U.S. seeks to secure Taiwan's
semiconductor technology through the TSMC-Intel
deal. The
agreements conspicuously lack one crucial element—security
guarantees in both cases. |
|
◆◆TIME,
2025-2-27 |
University of London
expert says: I haven't
seen any evidence that Trump cares much about Taiwan.
Nanyang Technological University scholar says:
China may be able to
take Taiwan “without too much U.S. interference” if Beijing is able to
strike a similar deal with Washington. |
|
◆ New
York Times,
2025-2-25 |
Taiwan
watches Trump undercut Ukraine,
hoping it
won't
be next.
In Taiwan, Mr. Trump’s stinging comments about Ukraine could feed a
current of public
opinion arguing that the island has been repeatedly abandoned by
Washington and cannot trust its promises. |
|
◆ The
Guardian, 2025-2-21 |
Taiwan holds its breath as Trump turns on Ukraine and
upends US foreign policy. The Trump
administration has already demonstrated that it is willing to suddenly
and without warning break from decades of bipartisan US policy on China. |
|
◆ Washington
Post, 2025-2-18 |
Each statement by Trump that
degrades the principle that territorial boundaries must not be redrawn
by force or coercion might embolden China on Taiwan. political
scientist Graham Allison : “Taiwan will be depreciated in the
triangular relationship”,“I see no evidence whatever that [Trump]
believes the U.S. has any vital interest in Taiwan.” |
|
◆ The
Guardian,
2025-2-21 |
Taiwan holds its breath as a
withdrawal of American support here would spark an existential crisis. “The Trump administration has already
demonstrated that it is willing to suddenly and without warning
break from decades of bipartisan US policy on China,” says
head at ASPI. Worries about Trump's “lukewarm” view of
Taiwan are becoming more obvious ... |
|
◆
NY Times, 2025-2-13 |
some hard-line hawks on Taiwan
have been left out, “It looks like Taiwan bet
on some of the wrong horses.” ; Elbridge Colby
warned that Taiwan should not assume that it was indispensable to the
United States. |
|
◆
Bloomberg, 2025-2-14 |
Taiwan President pledged to boost military spending
to 3% of GDP;
Trump suggested the archipelago should devote 10%
of GDP to its armed forces. The extra
funds for defense would be secured through a special budget, Lai said.
Such a move would require the cooperation of opposition lawmakers
because they control the legislature. |
|
◆
Brookings,
2025-2-12 |
Trump
said in 2021, if China invades Taiwan, “there isn't
a f—ing thing we can do about it.” |
|
◆
Fox
News,
2025-2-7 |
Trump's comments on the campaign trail suggest that he would
not be willing to put boots on the ground to face another global superpower in
defense of the island democracy. |
|
◆
Politico (EU),
2025-1-30 |
President Donald
Trump's threat to use military force
to take control of Greenland and Panama has spooked Taiwan.
This could embolden Beijing to apply that same logic to pursuing
its claims to Taiwan. |
|
◆
National
Interest,
2025-1-13 |
Why Trump Won't Defend Taiwan
- Waging World War III for Taiwan—or any small nation, for that matter—would not
be in keeping with the predilections and preferences of the incoming US
president. |
|
◆
The
Telegraph,
2025-1-13 |
Donald Trump has appointed a number of
hawkish foreign policy advisers to his transition team. However, he has pledged not to allow the
US to become involved in foreign wars. |
|
◆
Newsweek,
2025-1-3 |
Trump, who positioned himself as being tough
on China, has suggested he would
not defend Taiwan from China. |
|
◆
The
Hill,
2025-1-7 |
Lyle Goldstein, a professor at Brown
University said the cost of a war with China is
“incalculable” and would at the very least sow mass destruction in Taiwan and
the South China Sea region. |
|
◆
Voice
of America,
2024-12-26 |
Taiwan seeks clarity on Trump team policy amid Chinese pressure.
There is still quite a bit of resistance not only within the
security apparatus and armed forces, which don't
like the idea of involving citizens in defense, the opposition parties
have also sought to derail [relevant] plans and fundings.
|
|
◆
Insider,
2024-12-26 |
Elbridge Colby,
once called for the destruction of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing
Company's chip plants if China takes over Taiwan.
In Feb.,
Colby said "disabling or destroying TSMC is table stakes" if China
invades Taiwan.
The US and its allies can't afford to allow China to "have such
dominance over global semiconductors"
. |
|
|
|
about China's
ability to invade Taiwan |
|
◆
New York
Times, 2026-1-24 |
just last month, the Pentagon issued a
major report warning about China's gains in military power,
including cyber, space and nuclear weapons and artificial intelligence,
and asserting that “China expects to be able to fight and win a war on
Taiwan by the end of 2027.” |
|
◆
USA Today, 2025-12-30 |
"China not only has vast numerical superiority, it now has qualitative
superiority across the board in weaponry and probably in training as well," said
Asia program director at Defense
Priorities. "This is an arms race Taiwan cannot possibly win". |
|
|
 |
♣ Council on
Foreign Relations (2025-5-20): Chinese state-run media responded to
William Lai's speech labeling China as "foreign hostile force"
by publishing a cartoon depicting Taiwan
president William Lai Ching-te as a green parasite, while Taiwan
was depicted on fire, surrounded by Chinese military platforms.
♣
Foreign Affairs
(2025-10-22): China’s military called
Lai a “parasite” and depicted him in a propaganda video as a bug
hovering over a Taiwan engulfed in flames.Although Lai has adopted a
more defiant stance on Taiwan’s relations with China than Tsai did, for
instance by labeling China a “hostile foreign force,” Beijing’s
preemptive rejection of Lai has removed any incentive for him to take a
more accommodating approach.
♣ PBS (2025-4-3):The U.S. says China's exercises are practice
for a blockade of Taiwan. Part of those exercises, this cartoon.
Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te is a parasite who will be barbecued as
Chinese weapons strangle Taiwan.
♣ European Council on Foreign
Relations (2025-6-6):
Alongside the drill,
the PLA released a series of posters and animated videos.
One video depicted
Lai as a parasite squeezed between a pair of chopsticks above a burning
Taiwan. It accused the Taiwanese government of colluding with foreign
forces—an unusually explicit targeting of the country’s political
leadership.
♣ CNN (2025-4-1): China's PLA
released a series of propaganda videos after announcing the latest
drills, including one that depicts Lai Ching-te as a green cartoon bug
and calls him a “parasite” hollowing out the island.
♣ The Telegraph (2025-4-1): PLA showed Mr Lai as a green insect
who appears to give birth to other insects, before being held by
chopsticks above a burning Taiwan. “Parasite poisoning Taiwan island.
Parasite hollowing island out. Parasite courting ultimate
destruction.”Taiwan Defense Minister said: "such rhetoric was not
conducive to peace and “shows their provocative character” |
|
|
◆
Washington Examiner, 2025-10-24 |
China's military and economic power dwarfs that of previous U.S.
And worse still, key aspects of the American economy and industrial base
are reliant on China, providing Beijing
with tremendous leverage. A Sino-American war would be the most
devastating conflict since World War II.
|
|
◆
Bloomberg, 2025-7-28 |
Failed bid to oust Taiwan opposition gives China new leverage;
the opposition keeps its veto power
over the president's key initiatives including
his target of raising defense spending to over 3 per cent of GDP.
the campaign's central theme – protecting
Taiwan from China and communism – failed to resonate with most voters |
|
◆
Council on Foreign Relations, 2025-7-25 |
only 36% Americans support sending U.S. troops into harms war to break a Chinese
blockade or repel a Chinese invasion of the island;
Taiwan's
armed forces pale in comparison to China’s swelling military. As a recent CSIS wargame found,
“the 'Taiwan stands alone' scenario resulted in a PLA victory. |
|
◆
Responsible Statecraft
, 2025-7-25 |
Taiwan is not a vital US interest;
A war with China over the island should be off the table |
|
◆
Telegraph (UK), 2025-7-28 |
Britain is ready to fight in the Pacific if conflict
breaks out over Taiwan, the Defence Secretary has suggested.
Mr Healey, however, said he was speaking in “general terms” |
|
◆
Asia Times, 2025-7-23 |
The US says it stands with Taiwan, but the
real structure to fight together still doesn’t exist.
Taiwan is still getting ready on its own. There is no joint plan with allies for
handling a breakdown in civil order. No shared response for economic attacks. No
coordination for protecting digital systems. |
|
◆
The Strategist, 2025-7-21 |
China could conceal preparations for an invasion by framing it as a large-scale
joint exercise... the opening phase would be a massive missile
barrage targeting Taiwan's airbases, radar stations, naval ports and command centres. Simultaneously, China's air force would launch waves of fighters,
drones and bombers to suppress Taiwan's air defences.
|
|
◆ The
Telegraph, 2025-7-15 |
There used to be approximately 100,000 troops stationed on Kinmen
Island, but over the years this number has decreased to the 3,000 or so
here today – hardly enough to defend the island against China's
strength. a
general had said troops
should ‘hide in the mountains to avoid escalating the battle’...‘It
would not be a priority for Taipei to send troops’ |
|
◆ BBC,
2025-7-17 |
"There is just too big a difference in the strengths of China and
Taiwan's militaries," said a citizen "There is no use
defending ourselves against an attack." |
|
◆
The Telegraph, 2025-7-9 |
China PLA significantly exceeds Taiwan across every metric.
China has more than six times the number of tanks and aircraft than
Taiwan, and nearly five times more artillery. War game: if Taiwan faces Beijing alone, or if the country
surrenders before the U.S. is able to assist, it would be
overwhelmed in a very short time. |
|
◆ BBC, 2025-7-9 |
Taiwan's military and defence has come under criticism both domestically and externally in
recent years. One survey last year showing only 47.5% have
confidence in their defence capabilities. |
|
◆
Council on Foreign
Relations,
2025-7-8 |
the PLA Navy could “move into a blockade posture . . . in a matter of
hours.” The presence of Chinese warships and aircraft carriers in the waters
around Taiwan is such that a full-scale Chinese air assault against Taiwan would
also be possible without warning. |
|
◆
New York Times,
2025-6-26 |
China has about
3,500 missiles, as well as a growing nuclear arsenal and a
fast-expanding navy. |
|
◆
New York Times,
2025-5-6 |
China's
military is now the world's largest armed force
and rivals the
United States in air, naval and missile power. |
|
◆
Telegraph,
2025-6-24 |
the leader of Nato said:
“The Chinese will try anything with Taiwan.” |
|
◆
Reuters,
2025-6-17 |
Taiwan's armed forces are dwarfed by those of China, which has two operational
aircraft carriers and ballistic missile submarines and is developing stealth
fighter jets. |
|
◆
Strategy Page,
2025-6-12 |
PLA's key operation would be seizing
enough of the 60 Penghu Islands to hold more S-300 batteries and enough soldiers
to guard them. Once on the Penghu’s, the S-300 batteries would dominate the
skies over most of Taiwan. |
|
◆
Atlantic Council,
2025-6-9 |
The PLA is “stretching
their legs” to meet President Xi Jinping's
2027 military readiness goal of being capable of taking Taiwan by force.
|
|
◆
The Hill,
2025-6-10 |
China’s next war ‘could be imminent’ and
spread fast. War is coming to East Asia, and Taiwan — to which Hegseth was referring. |
|
◆◆The
Guardian,
2025-6-1 |
China already has
sufficient capability
to invade now, with amphibious landing craft, D-day-style floating docks,
paratroopers and expanded air combat and missile forces in a constant state of
readiness. |
|
◆◆Daily
Express (UK),
2025-6-2 |
China stockpiling nukes and could team up with Russia to grab Taiwan,
there’s uncertainty over how far the US 'nuclear umbrella' really
stretches - and whether America would act in defence of Alaska, Hawaii, Guam
or its Pacific allies. |
|
◆◆Bloomberg,
2025-6-2 |
China escalated military pressure around
the region, deploying dozens of warships and government vessels daily in what it
described as an extreme pressure campaign. |
|
◆◆NBC
News,
2025-5-30 |
it is difficult
for Taiwan to build a modern fighting force,
Ministry of Defense spokesperson said, in the
face of “inherently disproportionate” threats from China, whose
2.8-million-strong military is more
than 18 times larger than Taiwan's number of active-duty
personnel. |
|
◆◆New
York Post,
2025-5-29 |
INDSR research fellow: “China supports Russia in its war. And
the day when China invades Taiwan, and how will Russia support or help
China?"; many experts or analysts think that
maybe Xi Jinping and Putin already formed some agreement. |
|
◆◆Financial Times,
2025-5-26 |
China has increased its ability to
launch a sudden attack on Taiwan with faster-paced air and operations, new
artillery systems and more alert amphibious and air assault units
ft.com/content/c82eb38e-87cb-4468-b013-0f7fce0fc54b |
|
◆◆New
York Times,
2025-5-22 |
Taiwan defense chief:
“If China can be made to understand that the potential costs would be
extremely, extremely high, then that will make it extremely hard for it to make
a decision” |
|
◆◆AFP News, Eurasian Times,
2025-5-19 |
ongoing hostility between the DPP and KMT was eroding
public confidence in Taiwan's political institutions, bolstering Beijing's
narrative that Taiwanese people would be better off as part of China.
Beijing has ramped up military pressure on Taiwan in recent years, deploying
fighter jets and warships on a near-daily basis and staging several
large-scale drills since Lai took office. |
|
◆◆Wall
Street Journal,
2025-5-14 |
Beijing's
new ships can land on beaches and link to form massive mobile piers. Analysts
say they're intended to rapidly offload military
equipment, setting the stage for a D-Day-style invasion... |
|
◆◆Daily
Mail,
2025-5-7 |
China is at a 'rapid boil' in its
preparations for a military attack on Taiwan,
said Admiral Samuel Paparo, heading up the US Indo-Pacific
Command |
|
◆◆Economist,
2025-5-1 |
Recent China's
military exercises deployed in a “cabbage strategy” to wrap Taiwan in layers of
forces. A blockade could provoke an American military
response without forcing Taiwan to surrender. That is why a quarantine is more
likely. |
|
◆
Asia
Times, 2025-4-21 |
New non-nuclear bomb's
high-temperature fireball and deadly shockwave anticipates urban warfare
scenario in Taiwan |
|
◆◆The
Hill,
2025-4-19 |
The
commander of the U.S.
Indo-Pacific Command, gave
testimony to the Senate Armed Services Committee: In
2024, the People's Liberation Party demonstrated
growing capabilities through persistent pressure operations with military
pressure against Taiwan increasing by 300%”, “China's increasingly
aggressive actions near Taiwan are not just exercises, they are rehearsals”. |
|
◆◆The
Insider,
2025-4-19 |
The
commander of the U.S.
Indo-Pacific Command: China could stop US airpower
from achieving air superiority in the first island chain, China's fighter fleet,
bombers, and missiles are enough to cause problems.
"their advanced long-range air-to-air missiles also present a tremendous
threat.". Researchers have said that China
could more easily devastate American airpower than the other way around. |
|
◆
New
York Post, 2025-4-10
|
Beijing insists will be annexed in the coming years.
China acknowledges
its role in years of cyberattacks against US over support of Taiwan |
|
◆
Newsweek, 2025-4-8
|
three likely Chinese actions in The
Federalist: a full-scale blockade to pressure Taiwan economically; a
lightning strike to achieve a fait accompli before Washington can respond; or a
wider regional attack involving U.S. bases.
China is engaged in the largest military buildup in modern
times, focusing on sea power, amphibious assault capabilities, long-range
missiles, and nuclear weapons |
|
◆
Associated
Press, 2025-4-11
|
China, North Korea and Russia military cooperation raises threats
in the Pacific, US official warns |
|
◆
Daily
Express, 2025-3-21
|
Coupled with news about revision of PLA
recruitment, the hoarding of huge stockpiles of grains, as well as building
more nuclear missile silos, the barges surely indicate China is gearing up
for at least the possibility of an invasion or a blockade of Taiwan |
|
◆
SUN
(UK), 2025-3-14
|
China to exploit
Trump's New World Order with ‘perfect moment’ to strike Taiwan using
invasion barges & 1.2m troops.
Beijing is
already shown signs of preparations for a potential war |
|
◆
RFI
(France), 2025-2-23 |
In reality, Taiwan would be massively outgunned in terms of troop
numbers and firepower in any war with China. |
|
◆
Council
on Foreign Relations, 2025-1-15 |
A top concern among U.S. security analysts is that China's growing
military capabilities and assertiveness, as well as the deterioration in
cross-strait relations, could spark a conflict that leads to a
U.S.-China confrontation. |
|
◆
Financial
Times,
2025-1-13 |
Taiwan's long stretches of the
coast comprise cliffs, reefs and rocks, while the flatter western seaboard is
lined with mudflats. China
building new mobile piers could help possible Taiwan invasion;
But military experts said a Chinese invasion force would still struggle to advance through
Taiwan's western plains... |
|
◆
Wall Street Journal,
2025-1-3 |
In addition to unleashing its full military power, Beijing would be expected to
use a variety of economic strategies in a showdown over Taiwan.
A 2023
study by Rhodium Group and the Atlantic Council concluded that Beijing has been more systematic in preparing such defenses than
Russia was to counter Western sanctions. |
|
◆
USNI
News, 2024-12-19 |
The Pentagon's
report recognizes that China has “both the
will and capability to alter the international order in its favor” |
|
◆
Financial
Times, 2024-12-13 |
US nuclear build-up would not help deter China from using atomic weapons in
Taiwan, war game finds.
...only five of 15
iterations of the nuclear game ended with a withdrawal of the PLA. |
|
◆
Economist, 2024-12-5 |
The
views (the period of greatest danger has probably been pushed out
for several years)
are not universally shared, in or out of government.
“Xi has his foot firmly on the accelerator and a full tank
of gas". |
|
◆
Washington Examiner, 2024-12-13 |
Beijing seems to have a strategy —
will exploit both Washington's inability to focus and its depleted
industrial base. |
|
◆
CNN, 2024-12-15 |
Trump's
remarks have prompted jitters that Taiwan would need to move more of its
critical chip supply chain to the US at a faster pace,
that could affect the island's economic security and
dismantle the very “silicon shield” ... |
|
◆
Washington Examiner, 2024-12-4 |
Chinese leaders have said they want their military to be prepared to
invade Taiwan by 2027.
War with China would exhaust munition stockpiles
"very rapidly",
national security adviser
J. Sullivan
acknowledged that China has
"the
single biggest advantage",
"God forbid we end up in a
full-scale war with the PRC" . |
|
The Beiping model:
coercion
without violence |
|
◆
Brookings 2025-5-12 |
Beijing has been pursuing“coercion
without violence.” Beijing is
working to wear down the confidence of the people of Taiwan in their own future.
These tactics include
persistent visible military pressure, economic inducements and penalties,
diplomatic pressure, covert operations, organized crime, cyber operations, and disinformation.brookings.edu/articles/can-the-us-and-taiwan-advance-a-shared-vision/ |
|
◆
Lowy Institute
Australia, 2025-5-15 |
The Beiping model:
Victory can be achieved through the slow erosion of
political cohesion, economic independence, and societal
confidence; The signs are already visible.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/beiping-model-how-china-could-absorb-taiwan-without-war
|
|
◆
Brookings,
2025-2-12 |
China's
strategy of “coercion without violence” includes
cyber intrusions, economic coercion, influence operations, organized crime,
united front activities, and ceaseless and intensifying military pressure
surrounding Taiwan. In other words, Beijing
is taking a full spectrum of actions... |
◊
|
Taiwan has already lost its
China spy war |
|
◆◆Strategist
(Australia), 2025-7-21 |
The activation of a fifth column to incite civil unrest across
Taiwan could be highly effective. It could debilitate Taipei's ability to govern
and maintain stability, potentially by exploiting existing fault lines in
Taiwanese politics. This could provide Beijing with a pretext to deploy what it
might call stabilisation forces. A fifth column could plausibly target ...
|
|
◆◆Eurasian
Times, 2025-7-5 |
The CCP's
campaign is not an external nuisance—it is a systemic infection reaching the top
echelons of Taiwan's defense and political leadership.
a long-term espionage network carefully cultivated by Beijing, one
capable not only of collecting intelligence but also of compromising Taiwan’s
command structure and critical infrastructure in a crisis. |
|
◆◆War
On The Rocks, 2025-6-25 |
China might have a way to combine old
tools — such as spies, fifth columns, and saboteurs — with newer capabilities
pre-staged before the fighting starts — like drones and malware — to overwhelm
and paralyze the country. |
|
◆◆Washington
Post,
2025-3-28 |
Taiwanese soldiers guarding president's office were spying for China.
The presidential office should be the most secure place,
this shows how severe China's
infiltration is in Taiwan;
Taiwan's
sentencing on espionage activities has been too lenient. |
|
◆◆Washington
Examiner, 2025-3-25
|
Taiwan's
defense and security structures are so deeply penetrated by Chinese spies
that Beijing knows everything about its plans to deter aggression by the
People's
Liberation Army, including American defense and intelligence secrets.
At this point, any secrets Washington shares with our Taiwanese
partners stand a high chance of winding up in Chinese hands.washingtonexaminer.com/restoring-america/courage-strength-optimism/3357074/taiwan-has-already-lost-its-china-spy-war |
|
◆◆Stanford
Review,
2025-2-24 |
Taiwan's military is dilapidated.
Reports of Chinese espionage and infiltration are commonplace throughout
Taiwan's
military and civil society. |
◊
|
Taiwan's
defense
|
|
◆
Real Clear
Defense, 2025-5-5 |
A Taiwan Strait war wouldn’t be measured in months. It would be
decided in days. The U.S. won’t have time to surge exquisite assets across the
Pacific... |
|
◆
Deutsche Welle (DW),
2025-5-5 |
Energy would be Beijing's first target in
case of a blockade or invasion. The water supply is
powered by electricity, communication
is based on electricity and the military would not be able to function
without it. |
|
◆
PBS,
2025-4-3 |
Privately, Taiwanese officials
admit they're not ready for the Chinese army |
|
◆
New
York Times,
2025-2-25 |
Mr.
Trump said Taiwan was spending far too little on its military and
was too complacent about the United States coming to its rescue in a war |
|
◆
The Guardian,
2025-2-21 |
many analysts believe a
large part of Taiwan's protection
strategy comes from keeping production of its most advanced
chips – which form 90% of the world's
supply – onshore. Bonnie Glaser:
But Taiwan will likely face pressure from Trump to
accede to his demands.” |
|
◆
Wall
Street Journal, 2025-2-22 |
Taiwan must “adopt a new military culture”
akin to that of Israel, turning itself into a warrior-state—or “a porcupine”...
“...enough rifles, pistols, and
ammunition such that each member of the military, reserves, and civil defense
force has emergency access to a personal weapon.” |
|
◆
Stanford
Review, 2025-2-24
|
Taiwan's military is dilapidated.
The assumption
of
CSIS's
2023 war game rests on false premises.
Upon closer examination, Taiwan's
military readiness and morale stand on weak foundations.
What money the government does have to spend on
procurement they do so on flashy
items like fighter jets, tanks, and attack helicopters–are reduced to
piles of twisted steel in hours of
an invasion.
stanfordreview.org/the-illusion-of-taiwanese-strength/ |
|
◆
Bloomberg, 2025-1-14 |
Taiwan's military
is
not
prepared
for a Trumpian
World; With
the former president soon back in the White House, Taipei needs to rethink its
defense strategy. |
|
Taiwan
Prepares for Trump's
Return. |
|
◆
Politico, 2024-12-20 |
Taiwan has a plan for Trump's inauguration.
Taiwan is launching a new charm offensive on Washington ──
dispatching a large delegation to Washington for the inauguration,
which underscores how unnerved Taipei is over what Trump's
return to the White House means for the self-governing island.
|
|
◆
New
York Times, 2024-11-24 |
Trump
couldn't
care less about Taiwan... has dismissed us
as a geopolitical
trifle.
More and
more, there are those in Taiwan who say we are an “abandoned chess
piece,” no longer valued by the United States. |
|
◆
Wall
Street Journal, 2024-11-18 |
Some in Taiwan say its survival as a self-ruled democracy is
at stake, that it
can't afford to spend what Trump demands on defense and that it would wither in
the crossfire of a U.S.-China trade war.
In
Washington, the percent of GDP is really seen as a proxy for your
seriousness. |
|
◆
New
York Times,
2024-11-6 |
Some
diplomats expect China to intensify pressure on Taiwan, if not
invade
Taiwan; and China may calculate that Mr. Trump would not go to
war for a democracy that he has accused of “stealing” the microchip
industry from the US.
“With Donald Trump, there are large amounts of uncertainty"“And it's a matter of uncertainty that comes with
great risk for Taiwan.” |
|
◆
Fox
News, 2024-11-10 |
Trump's
public comments might suggest that he would not be willing to put boots
on the ground to face another global superpower in defense of
Taiwan.
"We don't have that alliance with Taiwan, ...
the Taiwan issue is a powder keg — it's exceedingly dangerous. " |
|
◆
New
York Times, 2024-11-10 |
Tump's call for Taiwan to spend more on its own
defense and his complaints about its semiconductor dominance may herald a tenser
relationship. |
|
◆
Business
Insider,
2024-11-9 |
In 2025, Taiwan will have to contend with uncertainty on whether the US will
protect it, or play it. |
|
◆
Washington Post,
2024-11-6 |
Trump's statements this
year that raise doubt about his willingness to come to the island
democracy's defense and his misleading
assertion that Taipei needs to pay the US for defense. |
|
◆
New
York Times,
2024-11-6,
news briefing |
Trump could decide to
do the true “America First” thing and
withdraw completely, and basically say,
"defending Taiwan is not in our interest.”
... |
|
◆
Bloomberg,
2024-11-5 |
Taiwan's
Economic Affairs Minister
acknowledged that Trump could introduce measures that might prove
harmful for Taiwan's
semiconductor industry. But the impact will not be as severe as some
anticipate. |
|
◆ Reuters,
2024-11-6 |
Trump
might try to use the Taiwan issue as a bargaining chip to gain
leverage in other areas, such as offering to restrain Taiwan's
provocative actions in exchange for Beijing's
compromise on trade. |
|
|
|
Taiwan's pres. Lai flies to US, angering China |
|
◆
CNN, 2024-12-1 |
Lai Ching-te in Hawaii: A stopover that speaks volumes.
Taiwanese security agencies anticipate that Beijing
will respond with military drills near Taiwan.
Taiwan does largely pay for its defense, through billions of
dollars spent on US-made weapons. And unlike Japan, South Korea and the
Philippines, it is not shielded by a mutual defense treaty with the
United States. |
|
◆
Wall
Street Journal, 2024-12-1 |
Hawaii stopover sends
a firm but conciliatory message to both China and the incoming
Trump administration: While Taipei doesn't
seek a war with Beijing, it is counting on U.S. support to deter any
aggression from its larger neighbor.
"Transits" are part of careful arrangements made between Washington and
Taipei to ... |
|
◆
Global Times (China) , 2024-12-6 |
Lai Ching-te is compelled to pledge loyalty to the US during his brief
"stopover," said Zheng Jian, a professor at the Taiwan Research Institute of
Xiamen University. |
|
If China were to
invade Taiwan, would you support or oppose the United
States: (% support) |
| |
2024 |
2023 |
2022 |
|
Using the US military to airlift food and
medical supplies to Taiwan |
74% |
78 |
|
|
Imposing economic and diplomatic
sanctions on china |
72% |
75 |
76 |
|
Sending additional arms and military
supplies to the Taiwanese government |
59% |
62 |
65 |
|
Sending US troops to Taiwan to help the
Taiwanese gov. defend itself against China |
36% |
39 |
40 |
|
China's response to
national day speech by Taiwanese President William Lai |
|
◆
BBC,
2024-10-14 |
With
new
drills, China is sending a message to
Taiwanese President William Lai that moves towards "Taiwan independence"
are bound to meet a "dead end". "Scared" and "desensitised"
- here's how people on the streets of Taipei are talking about
the exercise involved all parts of the military and
simulates a full-scale attack on its neighbour. |
|
◆
USA
Today,
2024-10-14 |
China launches 'punishment' drills
as 'Stern warning' |
|
◆
National
Review,
2024-10-14 |
There should be no question that the scale
of China's naval and air-force exercises represents an
existential threat to Taiwan's sovereignty.
Perhaps
the Taiwanese
are too confident. Officials seem convinced that their dominance of the global
semiconductor industry represents
a deterrent against aggression. They can hold the world's consumer
electronics industry hostage in the event of
...... |
|
◆
Japan
Times,
2024-10-15 |
China says it won't rule out use of force to take
Taiwan
as
war games end |
|
◆
Reuters,
2024-10-14 |
Senior Taiwan security official says pressure on Taiwan from
China is 'not light' |
|
◆
Reuters,
2024-10-12 |
China threatens Taiwan with more trade measures after
denouncing president's speech |
|
|
Taiwan's
president in first National Day speech |
|
◆
Financial Times
,
2024-10-10 |
Taiwan's president calls on China to ‘live up to’
duty to protect peace. China accused Lai of “deliberately severing
the historical connection” between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait;
and
has threatened to annex it with military
force if Taipei indefinitely resists its control. China has not previously
responded to a Taiwan president's national address with military moves |
|
◆
Wall Street Journal, 2024-10-10 |
Taiwan
leader
urges
calm
amid
military
threats...
Lai Ching-te,
who China accuses of separatism, says Beijing has no right to
represent Taiwan |
|
◆
Washington Post
,
2024-10-10 |
Lai
Ching-te
says Beijing has no right to represent Taiwan. |
|
◆
Washington Examiner
,
2024-10-11 |
Lai Ching-te declared
“On this land, democracy and freedom are growing and thriving...
These are fine words. Unfortunately, words can't shoot down missiles.
In that regard, Taiwan has a big problem. a 2.5% of GDP defense
budget is a sad joke. Taiwanese reserve forces lack adequate
training and readiness, and its military procurement remains too reliant on
platforms that lack agility and survivability...... |
|
◆
Reuters,
2024-10-10 |
China said Lai was a stubborn adherent of Taiwan
independence, full of confrontational thinking, "constantly provoking troubles
and deliberately aggravating cross-strait tensions". "Lai Ching-te has made
every effort to piece together the grounds for secession" |
|
◆
Bloomberg
,
2024-10-11 |
Lai reiterated that that neither side of the strait separating the
two sides was “subordinate to each other.” Beijing criticized for sending “a dangerous
signal of seeking independence.”... his speech showed “he is hell-bent on Taiwan
independence and has the ill intention of heightening tensions in the Taiwan
Strait for his political, selfish interest. |
|
◆
AFP
,
2024-10-10 |
China warned after the speech that Lai's "provocations"
would result in "disaster" for the people of Taiwan. |
|
Taiwanese are ready for fighting ?? |
|
◆
Fox News, 2024-10-4: the Taiwanese representative
to the U.S.
is warning that China has ramped up its
aggression toward the
island, and that its people are ready to fight. |
◆
Washington
Post (2024-8-4):
“Taiwan's reservists are going to be mobilizing
where the fight is happening, when the fight is
happening” . The island is patently not ready for that.
◆
National Interest (2024-8-29):
the Taiwanese are not well prepared for the kind of attack that China is
plotting.
◆
War
On The Rocks, 2024-3-21: Taipei has not made the necessary
preparations. |
|
China's
strategy
to achieve unification |
|
◆
Brookings,
2024-9-16 |
two means—military and coercive.
PLA can subject Taiwan to various limited
attacks, such as missile and air bombardment.To
subdue Taiwan without running the risks of war, the PRC is using
economic, political, judicial, diplomatic, informational, cyber, and
“gray zone” military tactics...
seeks to deplete the confidence of the people
brookings.edu/articles/why-does-the-us-security-partnership-with-taiwan-matter/ |
|
◆
Politico, 2024-9-11 |
Nearly three in four Americans are concerned about a
potential invasion of Taiwan, according to the latest
Reagan National Defense Survey. And, Washington has fixated
on a potential 2027 invasion scenario.
China's
strategy
to
annex Taiwan is
more
about
cyber
power
than
firepower
|
|
|
♦♦♦
Taiwan should worry Trump
♦♦♦
invasion of Taiwan
♦♦♦
China's spy war
♦♦♦
Beijing's coercion without violence
♦♦♦
Trump's tariff&trade
war
♦♦♦
Taiwan's
defense
♦♦♦
others
a survey to find political persecutions
in Taiwan
